MorrisF1

Well, that was a dramatic race. Even better, it was profitable. When Hamilton’s tyre exploded it looked set to be yet another Vettel victory, but then the German’s car lost drive, gifting Rosberg the lead. He did well to retain it at the end against a strong attack from Webber. It’s also nice to benefit from some good luck when it comes to bets. The start saw Vettel instantly pass Rosberg into second (maybe because the odd-numbered side of the track is a significant advantage). Webber meanwhile had a terrible start, even by his standards, and Massa gained a huge number of places. To make matters worse, Grosjean nudged Webber off the track and damaged his front wing (replaced at the first round of pit stops). A big question was whether or not Mercedes would be able to maintain decent race pace, as this has proved their weakness so far this season. Hamilton seemed to have no real issues keeping Vettel behind him, until the Briton’s tyre burst apart. It did so at the worst ...

Ha, I got just about everything wrong. I must admit I was pretty hopeful about the margin being 0.15s or less, and then Hamilton put in a blinding lap to absolutely slaughter his opposition. Q1 was unremarkable, with the usual suspects plus Gutierrez and Bottas failing to escape. Q2 had a perhaps important result, with Vergne departing at this stage but Ricciardo progressing to Q3. Both McLarens and Hulkenberg also got dropped here, as did Massa. Q3 was all lined up for an epic four way battle between the drivers of Mercedes and Red Bull. It was looking tight and tasty, and then Hamilton put in an astoundingly good lap and slaughtered his rivals by almost half a second. It’s due to be hotter tomorrow, but with harder compounds I am wondering if the Silver Arrows could yet have a very good race. Rosberg, Vettel and Webber came next, with Di Resta in a very nice fifth and Ricciardo in a strong sixth. Sutil and Grosjean came next, with Raikkonen a lacklustre ninth and Al...

The big news ahead of qualifying was that Vettel’s best friend forever, Mark Webber, has decided to call it a day. It sounds like this decision was actually made a long time ago (pre-Malaysia when Vettel decided obeying direct orders was optional and Horner showed himself to be a weak team leader). This will open up a vacancy at a team which has won the last six titles (three each for the Drivers’ and Constructors’). However, it’s also a team that has a clear number one, even if it pretends otherwise, which might make it significantly less attractive than would otherwise be the case. In addition, the rules change massively in 2014. I still expect Red Bull to be up there, maybe even to retain dominance, but the rule change is an opportunity for other teams to gain ground and surpass Red Bull. Kimi Raikkonen is the name lots of people are talking about… but I’m not so sure. From Vettel’s perspective (and I expect him to have some input if not an outright veto as Alonso would h...

Well, after rumours that Pirelli might sue and Mercedes might leave the Tribunal of Doom ended up giving them a slap on the wrist. Mercedes do miss the Young Driver Test, but given they themselves suggested that as a penalty it’s hardly being burnt at the stake. Some say Red Bull may be considering an overt rebellion by openly testing in-season and defying the ban on so doing: http://www.espn.co.uk/fia/motorsport/story/112205.html However, there’s a world of difference from an ‘in good faith’/accidental breaking of the rules and wilfully flouting them. The FIA would come down on Red Bull like a ton of bricks and I think this is very unlikely to happen. Pirelli are taking the hard and medium compounds to Silverstone, which has drawn some criticism from Lotus, who legitimately argue that there’s no point making tyres softer if you then take harder compounds to each race. Tyres for Silverstone and a race or two later can be found here: http://www.formula1.com/news/headlin...

So, Wimbledon’s just around the corner, and I thought I’d write a piece on it. A brief explanation of my betting/viewing habits around tennis: I’m much more casually interested than F1 [ironic, as my tennis bets this year are rather healthier than my F1 bets]. Typically my bets are just straight win/lose on specific matches, based on the stats offered on Betfair. Anyway, the men’s tournament is perfectly poised. Federer is the defending champion, but to retain the crown he’ll probably have to beat Nadal and Murray and Djokovic, even as his star is waning. Nadal has come back from prolonged injury to take a record 8th French Open title. Murray is the US Open champion and won the last tournament held at Wimbledon (2012 Olympic gold). Djokovic is world number one and reigning Australian Open champion. Perhaps even more importantly he has an easy draw whereby he can only meet Nadal, Federer or Murray in the final. We have a quartet of excellent men, each of whom has a sin...

Traditionally, I bugger up the first 3-4 races then get my act together. Bizarrely, I managed to get a flying start in Oz but since then my tips have been ropier than a bondage shop. I think it’s very important to categorise betting results according to luck or judgement, because the former should even itself out over the course of a season whereas the latter can (and must) be corrected by the person making the bet. So, I’m going to concisely run down the bets I’ve made this year (NB I am only looking at the tips I’ve offered, not small bets I sometimes make without tipping, typically when there’s a lack of liquidity). Most of the early races are very far off to the east and I didn’t offer qualifying tips because Q3 ended at about 4am. Australia Qualifying tip - NA Race tip - Ferrari to stop score at 5.5. Although an uncharacteristically early tip for the race, due to qualifying being delayed for bad weather, I actually got this spot on. It’s hard to spe...

Well, the race was unprofitable, and it was the worst (hedged) weekend so far, with two negative results. Assuming my computer is still working, I’ll put up a post trying to work out why I’ve been a bit rubbish this season during the 3 week gap to Silverstone. Bottas was the only one to have a bad start at the sharp end, and was rapidly passed by Webber and Alonso. Vettel had another dreary victory, going off first and retaining that throughout. Technically impressive but tedious as a spectacle. For a while Rosberg kept Webber and Alonso behind him, which enabled Hamilton, then second, to build up a 10s lead. When the pair passed Rosberg Webber suffered unnecessary front wing damage when Van Der Garde (being lapped) stupidly turned in and knocked off an end plate. Shortly thereafter Webber was passed by Alonso, although the Aussie still appeared to have good pace. Red Bull opted, interestingly, not to change the nose at the pit stops. Alonso (who had been approx...

The qualifying session was thoroughly entertaining and rather soggy. Hamilton got as close as possible to pole without actually achieving it, but there’s always the race tomorrow. The whole first session of Q1 was soggy, varying from almost-slick weather to pretty wet. It got wetter near the end, which caught out some. The pointless teams all went out, but, rather surprisingly, so did Di Resta in 17th and Grosjean in 19th. It may have been due to wetter weather, and perhaps also because their cars look after tyres well but find it harder to get the heat into the rubber when it’s cold and wet. Charles Pic will be thrilled to, in 18th, be ahead of a Lotus. Q2 was red-flagged with 2 minutes to go after Massa crashed. Both McLarens and Saubers also went out at this stage, as did Gutierrez and Sutil. Both Toro Rossos made it into Q3, as did Bottas. Hamilton was agonisingly close (less than a tenth) but was pipped to pole by Vettel. Bottas did a staggeringly good job to qualif...

The tyres for this weekend are the supersoft and medium, the same as in Monaco. However, although both street circuits, Canada is very different to the principality. As well as being far more entertaining, the circuit has numerous straights and a number of slow corners/chicanes. Overtaking is eminently possible even without DRS zones (the circuit goes back to having two this year) and less than half the last 10 races have been won from pole. On Friday (P1 and P2) the test tyres were used. These are intended to be used in the race and qualifying of Silverstone, but the old tyres will continue to be used in Montreal. P1 was a bit soggy, and the drying track meant that the usefulness of the session was limited and the gaps between the cars exaggerated. Di Resta finished top, ahead of Button, Grosjean, Alonso, Raikkonen, Ricciardo, Rosberg, Perez, Vettel and Webber. P2 was drier. Alonso was a tiny margin ahead of Hamilton, who was a quarter of a second ahead of Grosjean. A...

[This was originally posted over on pb2] Some tyre news: whilst Pirelli will be updating their tyres they won’t be used for qualifying or the race in Montreal, but will be used in practice. So, bear this in mind both when considering how the teams will go this weekend and how they might at Silverstone. I think the tyres used will be medium and supersoft. Not certain, though. In addition, Hankook have ruled out replacing Pirelli in 2014, suggesting that either someone else will do it or F1 should hurry up and sign Pirelli up again or they won’t have time to make the 2014 tyre. Canada’s often a fantastic race, and should be several thousand times more entertaining than Monaco. Just a reminder that the timezone means everything will be relatively later (P3 ends at about 3pm, I think). As always, your insights, tips, comments and general musings are welcome. Morris Dancer  

Hey, kids. Unfortunately a lot of spam and difficulty resolving it on pb2 means that I’ve had to start my own blog. I’d much rather have remained at pb2, and if the issues there can be resolved I’d have no problems returning there, for F1 at least. In the meantime, this rather rushed blog will be where I’m posting my F1 stuff, and I’ll be operating a zero tolerance approach to spam. I might also occasionally post non-betting stuff, especially regarding F1, as well as perhaps having the occasional tennis tip too. I’ve thrown this up (ahem) rather hurriedly and will shortly be reposting the early discussion article for Canada. Morris Dancer