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Showing posts with the label betting

Monaco 2026: pre-qualifying

Finally, a non-sprint weekend… and it’s Monaco. Oh well. In first practice, Leclerc led Hamilton by two-tenths, with Verstappen and Antonelli three-tenths further back. Russell was half a second behind his team mate, then we had Norris, Hulkenberg, Piastri, Bortoleto, and Gasly. Hamilton was quickest in second practice, a tenth ahead of Leclerc. But Verstappen was only half a tenth off, while Russell was two-tenths slower and about a tenth ahead of Antonelli. Hadjar, Piastri, Hulkenberg, Bortoleto, and Bearman completed the top 10. My instinct going into this was to back Leclerc or maybe Hamilton each way (he had odds of 6 pre-weekend). Surprised and a bit disappointed there’s no each way available on Ladbrokes for fastest qualifier. Leclerc’s evens to win the race, Hamilton’s 3, Verstappen’s 8 (Ladbrokes’ odds). Heroically, I backed Leclerc at 2.18 on Betfair to win the race. Normally I’d make a race bet post-qualifying but it’s Monaco. This might well be the last regular F1 be...

Canada 2026: pre-race

While I still dislike sprints immensely this was one of the better ones. It seemed the Mercedes were destined to drive away from the field, but whether it was the squabbling, tyre wear, or something else, they ended up being caught by Norris who had their pace if not better. Antonelli clearly looked quicker than Russell but couldn’t get past and when the Briton introduced the Italian to the side of the track the youngster lost his cool, ranted on the radio, locked up, and lost out to Norris. One suspects their garage will not be entirely harmonious. All three were very close together. A little way further back, the next three were also very tight. Hamilton seemed set for 4th but ended up very narrowly losing out to Piastri and Leclerc (who finished 0.1s behind the Aussie). In the corners the Ferrari’s very good but it lacks straight line grunt. If it rains, this might mean a relative pace advantage for the Prancing Horse, but they’ll also have to survive Ferrari strategy. Verstappen...

Miami 2026: pre-race

Well, I was very tired yesterday which did mostly make the sprint easier to watch. Might just be the circuit but it seems the current, updated, regulations have made overtaking much trickier. Not impossible, though, the Mercs had a tussle, and so did Hamilton and Verstappen. But dirty air seemed to cause Leclerc, who looked fast, problems whenever he got too close to Piastri. Rain is possible for the race which might be brought forward, which is one reason I’m posting this sooner rather than later. Update : the race is now starting 3 hours earlier than initially planned, at 6pm UK time. Anyway, in qualifying we had Bortoleto struggle to get out on time and then his rear brakes turn into a barbecue, which unfortuately meant he ended up last. The Aston Martins and Cadillacs also went in Q1, with Lindblad fastest of the men eliminated (the Racing Bull has looked weak this weekend). In Q2, Hulkenberg and Lawson were the fastest men to leave the stage, with Bearman, Sainz, Ocon, and Albo...

Japan 2026: pre-race

Glad I didn’t tip the McLaren bet as it came close but didn’t quite work out. In Q1 we said goodbye to most of the regulars, with the Aston Martins slowest, Cadillac in the middle, and Albon seventeenth. The outlier was Bearman, who made an error in a couple of corners and the field’s tight enough that saw him qualify eighteenth. First weak spot of his 2026 season and he’ll be hoping passing’s easier than last year. In Q2 every single driver was from a different team. Verstappen was struggling with his car and went out as fastest eliminated driver, just ahead of Ocon. Hulkenberg had the pace to escape but an error consigned him to thirteenth. Then came Lawson, Colapinto, and Sainz. Q3 came around and Russell had been looking a step behind Antonelli. And so it proved, with the Italian following his maiden victory with a pole position, Russell alongside him. On row two, McLaren bounced back with Piastri (let’s hope he actually gets to race this time). Leclerc had the pace to make the ...

China 2026: pre-race

Two quick points of order before I over the sprint, qualifying, and thoughts on race betting: First off, I’ve been mildly pestilent. That’s no excuse for accidentally calling the last post Australian rather than Chinese but it’s the only one I’ve got. Secondly, I listened to rather than watched coverage of the sprint qualifying. There was a telemetry error for the Mercedes-powered Mercs and McLarens and *that* is the reason behind them appearing to maintain such a good top speed along a straight. While not official confirmed it seems highly likely both Saudi and Bahrain will be cancelled. This would leave us with just Japan, in a fortnight, before the Miami Grand Prix on the 3rd of May. To make things even trickier, that’s meant to be a sprint weekend, so there’ll be over a month of developing upgrades and then one practice session only. Even better, the race after that (Canada) is also a sprint. Anyway, with that out of the way, to the sprint. Sprint Race Antonelli had an awful star...

Australia 2026: pre-race

Well, qualifying was quite the twisty, turny thing. Reliability is looking very iffy, from outright failures (Bortoleto/Verstappen) to problms that could be resolved (Ferrari, although this did require a visit to the garage). Q1 had half the eliminations due to reliability. Neither Stroll nor Sainz were able to leave their garages or set a lap. Verstappen did start a flying lap but when he tried braking for the first corner his car decided this meant slapping on a handbrake, and he went straight into the barriers. This did, however, bring out a red flag and buy time for Mercedes to mend Antonelli’s car. The other eliminated chaps were Alonso, Perez, and Bottas. Q2 saw us wave goodbye to Hulkenberg (a tiny margin behind Bortoleto, who reached Q3 but whose car failed him at the end of Q2 meaning he couldn’t set a time), as well as Bearman, Ocon, Gasly, Albon, and Colapinto. Mildly surprised, post-testing, that the Haas and Alpine look behind Racing Bulls and Audi. Ferrari got through b...

Abu Dhabi 2025: pre-qualifying

Well, now I wish I’d tipped Russell to top FP3. Ending the season with a couple of good predictions I didn’t tip is a bit irksome. What isn’t irksome is how incredibly close qualifying was, which led to a pretty good grid and the prospect of an intriguing final race, both in itself and for the title. Q1 said goodbye to some big names, with Hamilton, Albon, Hulkenberg, Gasly, and Colapinto going out. Both Hamilton and Hulkenberg’s team mates made it through to Q3 and the German looked fast enough to escapebut didn’t quite hook things up. In Q2 Bearman, Sainz, Lawson, Antonelli, and Stroll exited the stage. Bearman and Antonelli were surprises, as the Briton has looked very good lately (including this weekend) and Antonelli is also on a run of good results. Every driver out in Q2 had a time of 1:23:0. And so to Q3 which I felt had become a probable McLaren duel. Not for the first time this season, I was wrong. Verstappen put in two great laps for pole, and didn’t need the tow he had ...

Qatar 2025: pre-race

And so, with the pretend race and qualifying done, it will soon be time for the penultimate Grand Prix of the year. Norris could sew things up, if he finishes where he starts. In Q1 it was another torrid time for Hamilton.It was also a return to poor form for Tsunoda, who did extremely well in sprint qualifying. The five out were Tsunoda, Ocon, Hamilton, Stroll, and Colapinto. To be fair to Hamilton, the car looked like a dog in Leclerc’s hands too (the Monegasque had a high speed spin but was luckily nowhere near the barriers). Ferrari to have 1 or 2 not classified is a market I’ll be checking. Q2 said goodbye to Hulkenberg, Lawson, Bearman, Bortoleto, and Albon. Once again, Sainz’s fantastic run of form continues, he was four-tenths faster than Albon in this session and reached Q3. Hulkenberg was one-hundredth slower than Leclerc, which is a bit unlucky. At the sharp end it was looking like a McLaren duel, and so it proved. Piastri was the quicker and claimed pole, again, a tenth ...

Las Vegas Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

Well, qualifying was less than splendid as I managed to combine oversleeping with not being there to see the chap I thought might get pole go out in Q1. But I did catch Q2 and Q3 live, at least. Las Vegas qualifying also saw the rarest of things, wet tyres actually being used (for Q1 and Q2, it was intermediates for Q3). In Q1 (having caught up), we said goodbye to Albon, Antonelli (who messed up his final lap), Bortoleto, Tsunoda, and Hamilton, who was last and always seemed to be struggling. Kind of shocking to lose both a Mercedes and a Ferrari in Q1 just on pace, but it was full wets and clearly the cars didn’t like it. If the race is dry, there may still be hope for them. Q2 was still wets, except for Stroll who was looking very good then put on inters and discovered it was about 10 minutes too early. Hulkenberg was the fastest man eliminated, right ahead of Stroll. Ocon and Bearman were both out, as was Colapinto, who did nicely to save himself form a trip to the barriers when...

Las Vegas Grand Prix 2025: pre-qualifying

Due to the hellishly early 4am (UK) start times this weekend, the pre-qualifying and pre-race rambles are both going to be early. First practice had the unexpected top three of Leclerc, Albon, and Tsunoda, who was one place and less than half a tenth ahead of Verstappen. Sainz, Norris, and Hadjar followed, with Piastri, Russell, and Antonelli bringing up the rear of the top 10. While intriguing I suspect these times may be less than representative. Second practice was back to Brazil, with Norris quickest, but under a tenth ahead of Antonelli. Leclerc stayed fast in third, one place ahead of Hulkenberg. Right behind the Hulk were the racing Bulls pair of Hadjar and Lawson, with Russell a little further back. Albon, Verstappen, and Hamilton finished off the upper half of the time sheet. Piastri was 14th. I was a bit surprised Antonelli was out at 9, 9.5 boosted, so I’ve backed him each way for qualifying. He was second quickest and very close behind Norris in FP2 and while the Mercede...

Brazilian Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

I tend not to comment, good or bad, on bet results but a Mercedes being top 2 but not the guy who finishes ahead 85% of the time and whom I’d backed was pretty galling. Ah, well. I had a lot of flukey results in previous seasons so 50/50s going against me this year is just the way it goes…and it was a crazy qualifying session. Quick sprint rundown: Piastri out. He spun and was immediately followed by Hulkenberg and Colapinto so it looked like bad luck rather than a serious error. With Norris winning this was another step backwards for the Aussie. Verstappen was 4th, and Gasly got the last point in 8th. Qualifying saw Red Bull make serious setup changes to try and make up for relatively weak pace in the sprint. This had the opposite effect, with Verstappen out in Q1 in 16th. He was ahead of Ocon (as he had been at the line in Brazil last year), then came Colapinto, Tsunoda, and Bortoleto, who was unable to set a time due to his car not being fixed in time. Rough home race for the Brazil...

Brazilian Grand Prix 2025: pre-qualifying and sprint

Once again the magnificent Interlagos is contaminated by the American vomit chocolate of the sprint race. Alas. Bit of off-track news: Alpine has kept Colapinto for next year. Only practice had Norris and Piastri quickest, ahead of Hulkenberg and Alonso. Bortoleto was fifth quickest, followed by Russell, Gasly, Sainz, Hadjar, and Antonelli. It’s worth knowing the Ferraris and Verstappen didn’t use the medium tyre due to limited allocation and not wanting to use them up. Sprint qualifying was extremely close, as indicated by the five eliminated in SQ1 all coming from different teams. The drivers were: Colapinto, Lawson, Tsunoda, Ocon, and Sainz. The gaps were tiny in SQ2 and some were not helped by Leclerc spinning in sector 2 towards the end. This screwed over Hamilton, who was the fastest man out, ahead of Albon, Gasly, Bortoleto, and Bearman. As in SQ1, everyone eliminated was from a different team. Going into SQ3 it seemed Norris and Piastri were very close, with Verstappen in ...

Mexican Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

Before qualifying (and, indeed, third practice) it looked like Verstappen remained likeliest to get pole but that it could be close, with Leclerc, Antonelli, and Norris all looking pretty good. The short lap made qualifying very close throughout, and in Q1 we waved goodbye to Bortoleto, Albon, Gasly, Stroll, and Colapinto. Given Sainz got through to Q3 bit of a weaker showing from Albon, though it might be fairer to say Sainz is very good around this track. In Q2 Tsunoda was the fastest man eliminated, followed by Ocon, Hulkenberg, Alonso, and Lawson. Going into Q3 I had thought it was Verstappen’s to lose but his car was sliding a bit which was not only bad for pace but also won’t help his tyre wear over the long runs. In a tight session, Norris’ pole margin of around three-tenths was very impressive and if he can retain the lead on the opening lap he’s very likely to win. But, and it’s a big but, there’s a very long run into the first corner and a great opportunity to screw up. ...

American Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

The sprint race was marked by two events. On lap 1, a collision had knock-on effects which caused both McLarens and Alonso to DNF, and shunted Hulkenberg way down the order, out of the points. After the safety car came out, and left again, things were fairly sedate, with passing proving tricky, although Hamilton did manage to get ahead of Leclerc. Later, Stroll clumsily smashed into Ocon with an ill-considered overtake attempt which took out both men, and brought out the safety car for the second time. Under this finish the race would finish. Verstappen had a lovely time, getting all 8 points while McLaren scored 0. Russell got 2nd place with Sainz in 3rd. Behind the Spaniard, Ferrari recovered from woeful qualifying to 4th and 5th, Hamilton leading Leclerc, with Albon, Tsunoda (who made up 11 places), and Antonelli finishing the points positions. Bearman had been in 8th but continued his one-man mission to disprove British bias by getting a 10s penalty for defending against Antonell...

Singapore Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

I’d expected qualifying to be a five horse race but instead it ended up with rather bigger gaps than we’ve come to expect this year. Q1 featured a red flag from Gasly suffering what appears to be a hydraulic failure. Bortoleto, Stroll, Colapinto, Ocon and Gasly were eliminated at this stage. Not too unexpected, save for Bortoleto being outqualified by Hulkenberg for the first time in a long while. Q2 was a little delayed but when it was done we said goodbye to Hulkenberg, Albon, Sainz, Lawson, and Tsunoda. I think Hulkenberg did well to get so far up the grid, and the Williams was pushed to its potential but simply doesn’t gel with this circuit. Lawson and Tsunoda could’ve done better given how their team mates did. And so to Q3, which was feeling like it might be a Verstappen versus Mercedes battle. And so it was, with Russell putting in a cracking first lap to secure provisional pole. Verstappen could only get within a couple of tenths but had to settle for the runner-up spot. Pi...

Singapore Grand Prix 2025: pre-qualifying

In first practice Alonso was quickest, a tenth and a half ahead of Leclerc. Verstappen was a similar margin further back, a tenth ahead of Hamilton. Piastri was a thousandths off the Briton but two-tenths ahead of Norris, with Hadjar, Sainz, Tsunoda, and Ocon rounding out the top 10. Second practice was disrupted by two red flags caused by Russell and Lawson crashing out. Fastest in FP2 was Piastri, a tenth up on Hadjar. Verstappen and Alonso were one- and three-hundredths respectively behind the Frenchman. Then there was a huge three-tenths gap to Norris, who was followed by Stroll, Ocon, Sainz, Leclerc, and Hamilton. Practice also saw a pit lane crash when Ferrari sent out Leclerc directly into the path of Norris. Very much a case of incompetence from the pit crew. The penalty was just a fine, but if that had happened in qualifying or the race then a grid penalty would’ve been on the cards. In third practice we had another red flag courtesy of Liam Lawson crashing, again. Hamilto...

Azerbaijan Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

Well, qualifying was a five red flag, two hour affair, with numerous drivers crashing out and a mostly shocking grid. There was even a touch of rain, but not enough to do more than add a touch of stress near the end. Q1 had three red flags, including an unnecessary one for Hulkenberg, whose car was never without power and who was able to get back to the pits and compete again when the track was green. The five eliminated drivers were Colapinto, who crashed out, Hulkenberg, who had crash damage, Ocon, who was just slow, Gasly, who was off-track near the end, and Albon, who crashed out. This was especially galling for Albon, who had looked good up until this point. In Q2 I was astonished Alonso was the fastest man eliminated (thought the Aston Martin would not be good here). He was ahead of Hamilton, who had seemed really competitive but lacked a lot of pace in the middle sector. Bortoleto in 13th being a little disappointing is indicative of what a great job the Brazilian’s been doing...

Azerbaijan Grand Prix 2025: pre-qualifying

First practice had a predictable McLaren 1-2 at the top, Norris leading Piastri, with Leclerc and Russell next down the road. Albon was next, with Tsunoda ahead of Verstappen. Sainz, Lawson, and Hadjar completed the top 10. FP2 was quite different. Hamilton was top ahead of Leclerc, with Russell leading Antonelli, and then Bearman. Verstappen was in sixth, ahead of Lawson, Ocon, Albon, and Norris, with Piastri in 12th. A few notes are worthwhile: Norris whacked into the wall in FP2 and had about a third the laps of everyone else. First practice also had a long red flag due to a kerb deciding to be loose. Third practice had Norris quickest, two-tenths up on Verstappen, Piastri, and Hamilton. Antonelli and Russell were four-tenths further back, and narrowly ahead of Albon, Bearman, then Lawson and Leclerc (who made an error on his final qualifying simulation run). Hamilton’s been surprisingly close to Leclerc in practice. This is a shock for two reasons: it’s not been the case most o...

Italian Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

Qualifying’s been very competitive this season and Monza was a perfect example, as drivers from one of three or four teams could’ve credibly taken pole. Q1 saw us lose Hadjar, Stroll, Colapinto, Gasly, and Lawson. The Kiwi made a mistake on his last lap which is why Lawson’s last, and most of the others aren’t a surprise. Hadjar is, however, and apparently he had problems with warmup as well as making a mistake on his lap. Q2 was also very close and I was surprised to see both Williams exit at this stage. Bearman was fastest of those out, ahead of Hulkenberg (in a shockingly High For Hulkenberg 12th), Sainz, Albon, and Ocon. Seven-hundredths would’ve put either Bearman or Hulkenberg into Q3. And so into Q3. The McLarens hadn’t been looking as dominant as expected through qualifying, with Russell (on mediums, weirdly) and the Ferraris looking like they might pose a threat. But it was Verstappen who put in a fantastic final lap to take pole away from Norris. Piastri ended up 3rd, ahea...

Dutch Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

Qualifying was close and competitive. At the front, this was only between the McLarens, but the rest of the field was much tighter. Lance Stroll didn’t delight his engineering team. The mechanics worked overnight to put his car together after a practice crash, then he immediately crashing in qualifying. While he was able to get it back to the pits, it had to be retired. Bearman could’ve gone faster but made an error and ended up going out, as did Ocon. Colapinto was the fastest man eliminated in Q1, right ahead of Hulkenberg, who continues to be outqualified by Bortoleto. Q2 was very tight indeed, but we said goodbye to Antonelli, Tsunoda, Bortoleto, Gasly, and Albon. Yes, Albon was the slowest one, rather surprisingly as both he and the Williams had been looking good. His tyres (perhaps warmup) were not there for the final, critical lap. If there’s a safety car or strange situation tomorrow then he has the pace to make up ground in clear air. All weekend long it had looked like Nor...