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China 2026: pre-race

Two quick points of order before I over the sprint, qualifying, and thoughts on race betting: First off, I’ve been mildly pestilent. That’s no excuse for accidentally calling the last post Australian rather than Chinese but it’s the only one I’ve got. Secondly, I listened to rather than watched coverage of the sprint qualifying. There was a telemetry error for the Mercedes-powered Mercs and McLarens and *that* is the reason behind them appearing to maintain such a good top speed along a straight. While not official confirmed it seems highly likely both Saudi and Bahrain will be cancelled. This would leave us with just Japan, in a fortnight, before the Miami Grand Prix on the 3rd of May. To make things even trickier, that’s meant to be a sprint weekend, so there’ll be over a month of developing upgrades and then one practice session only. Even better, the race after that (Canada) is also a sprint. Anyway, with that out of the way, to the sprint. Sprint Race Antonelli had an awful star...
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Australia 2026: pre-qualifying

After the first and only practice of this sprint weekend * sigh * we had the joy of sprint qualifying. Smooth, recently resurfaced track, so takes a little time for tyres to warm up. And track evolution is very high (will affect proper qualifying too). Can still be rough on tyre wear, apparently. SQ1 and SQ2 all have to be on medium tyres, SQ3 has to be soft. Perez did not take part in SQ1 due to his car being wonky. Verstappen hit top speed and started clipping at or before halfway down the long straight between turns 13 and 14, which isn’t great… The Red Bull looked worst of the big four by some way. We said goodbye to Sainz, Albon, Alonso, Stroll, and Bottas, with Perez last of all due to not running. Mercedes, however, could hold around 320-325kph down the whole straight. McLaren are able to do something similar. In SQ2, Norris complained of being blocked by Antonelli which could lead to a penalty for the Italian. Very tight among those just in or out, but the half-dozen out were H...
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Australia 2026: pre-race

Well, qualifying was quite the twisty, turny thing. Reliability is looking very iffy, from outright failures (Bortoleto/Verstappen) to problms that could be resolved (Ferrari, although this did require a visit to the garage). Q1 had half the eliminations due to reliability. Neither Stroll nor Sainz were able to leave their garages or set a lap. Verstappen did start a flying lap but when he tried braking for the first corner his car decided this meant slapping on a handbrake, and he went straight into the barriers. This did, however, bring out a red flag and buy time for Mercedes to mend Antonelli’s car. The other eliminated chaps were Alonso, Perez, and Bottas. Q2 saw us wave goodbye to Hulkenberg (a tiny margin behind Bortoleto, who reached Q3 but whose car failed him at the end of Q2 meaning he couldn’t set a time), as well as Bearman, Ocon, Gasly, Albon, and Colapinto. Mildly surprised, post-testing, that the Haas and Alpine look behind Racing Bulls and Audi. Ferrari got through b...
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Australia 2026: pre-qualifying

This is up a day earlier than standard due to Australia’s irksome start time (really hope I get up in time for the 4am race start as that could be quite something). Notes A few quick notes I made after testing I missed from the previous post: Williams being a bit on the chunky side could make them sluggish in slow corners, (might be improved since testing, though). McLaren at the final test didn’t have the latest Mercedes engine so were slightly underpowered. Mercedes may be slightly better on cooling than other teams. Likely handy for hot races but could reverse their usually good performance in Las Vegas’ colder conditions. On the engine question, a change to the compression ratio measurement will take effect from 1 June. We will see if this has a real impact. Big Questions Will it be as hard to follow and overtake as widely anticipated? Will the season end up being an engine formula with a huge advantage for Mercedes (or someone else)? Will better energy harvesting/deployment mean...
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F1 2026 Pre-season Wibble

Hey, kids. To avoid cramming all of this in a pre-qualifying spiel for Australia, here’s a scattergun of my thoughts post-testing, which is subject to dramatic and immediate change once the sandbags are dropped for the first race of the season. Engine Reference Info Mercedes: Mercedes, McLaren, Williams, and Alpine Ferrari: Ferrari, Haas, and Cadillac Red Bull-Ford: Red Bull and Racing Bulls Honda: Aston Martin Audi: Audi Fuel I think it very likely this will get sorted, but last I heard (a few days ago), not every team had their fuel ready. This matters because failure to do so means using a stopgap fuel which is dramatically inferior (this will affect lap time if it happens). Shell (Ferrari, Haas, Cadillac), BP (Audi), and Red Bull Ford all have their affairs in order. I’d be very surprised if the others don’t, but it’s being cut rather fine. Future Changes There’s chatter of moving to 12 sprints in the future due to ‘fan demand’. This is obvious nonsense and is probably claimed...
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Undercutters Episode 38 - Predictions Assessment

Hello, everyone. Welcome to a special, one-off Undercutters episode. No sound this time (just as well, I’ve excitingly developed another, hopefully minor, health problem that would’ve made recording it slightly unpleasant) but I did want to look back at my predictions and see just how wrong I got things. Driver Pairings Pre-season I predicted which of each driver pairing would end up the best in their particular team. My predictions were: Gasly to beat Doohan Alonso to beat Stroll Norris to beat Piastri Leclerc to beat Hamilton Russell to beat Antonelli Verstappen to beat Lawson Tsunoda to beat Hadjar Sainz to beat Albon Bearman to beat Ocon Hulkenberg to beat Bortoleto Whether to count Verstappen or Tsunoda as wins (they were ahead at the time of the Lawson-Tsunoda switch) is debatable, but I’m inclined not to. As for the other predictions, I got Sainz wrong. He took longer than I expected to get up to speed with Williams, although once he did then he did score more than Albon. Oth...
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Abu Dhabi 2025: pre-qualifying

Well, now I wish I’d tipped Russell to top FP3. Ending the season with a couple of good predictions I didn’t tip is a bit irksome. What isn’t irksome is how incredibly close qualifying was, which led to a pretty good grid and the prospect of an intriguing final race, both in itself and for the title. Q1 said goodbye to some big names, with Hamilton, Albon, Hulkenberg, Gasly, and Colapinto going out. Both Hamilton and Hulkenberg’s team mates made it through to Q3 and the German looked fast enough to escapebut didn’t quite hook things up. In Q2 Bearman, Sainz, Lawson, Antonelli, and Stroll exited the stage. Bearman and Antonelli were surprises, as the Briton has looked very good lately (including this weekend) and Antonelli is also on a run of good results. Every driver out in Q2 had a time of 1:23:0. And so to Q3 which I felt had become a probable McLaren duel. Not for the first time this season, I was wrong. Verstappen put in two great laps for pole, and didn’t need the tow he had ...
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