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Japan 2026: pre-race

Glad I didn’t tip the McLaren bet as it came close but didn’t quite work out. In Q1 we said goodbye to most of the regulars, with the Aston Martins slowest, Cadillac in the middle, and Albon seventeenth. The outlier was Bearman, who made an error in a couple of corners and the field’s tight enough that saw him qualify eighteenth. First weak spot of his 2026 season and he’ll be hoping passing’s easier than last year. In Q2 every single driver was from a different team. Verstappen was struggling with his car and went out as fastest eliminated driver, just ahead of Ocon. Hulkenberg had the pace to escape but an error consigned him to thirteenth. Then came Lawson, Colapinto, and Sainz. Q3 came around and Russell had been looking a step behind Antonelli. And so it proved, with the Italian following his maiden victory with a pole position, Russell alongside him. On row two, McLaren bounced back with Piastri (let’s hope he actually gets to race this time). Leclerc had the pace to make the ...
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Japan 2026: pre-qualifying

Been bit off-colour of late, so this and the next post may be briefer than normal. In shock news, Mercedes topped the first practice session, Russell two-hundredths ahead of Antonelli. Norris and Piastri were about a tenth further back and very close to one another. And a tenth further back we had Leclerc and Hamilton. Verstappen was four-tenths down the road, a little ahead of Lawson, Ocon, and Lindblad. In a more surprising result, Piastri topped second practice, less than a tenth ahead of Antonelli with Russell a further tenth back. There was three-tenths back to Norris, then a couple of tenths to Leclerc, who led Hamilton (surprised the Ferrari are seeming behind McLaren, if practice is accurate). Hulkenberg put his Audi seventh quickest, ahead of Albon, Bearman, and Verstappen. Piastri or Norris for pole is tempting. They’re up at 11 each way, boostable to 12. Mercedes have been dominant in qualifying so far, but if McLaren have got their act together, it could be worth a shot...
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China 2026: pre-race

Two quick points of order before I over the sprint, qualifying, and thoughts on race betting: First off, I’ve been mildly pestilent. That’s no excuse for accidentally calling the last post Australian rather than Chinese but it’s the only one I’ve got. Secondly, I listened to rather than watched coverage of the sprint qualifying. There was a telemetry error for the Mercedes-powered Mercs and McLarens and *that* is the reason behind them appearing to maintain such a good top speed along a straight. While not official confirmed it seems highly likely both Saudi and Bahrain will be cancelled. This would leave us with just Japan, in a fortnight, before the Miami Grand Prix on the 3rd of May. To make things even trickier, that’s meant to be a sprint weekend, so there’ll be over a month of developing upgrades and then one practice session only. Even better, the race after that (Canada) is also a sprint. Anyway, with that out of the way, to the sprint. Sprint Race Antonelli had an awful star...
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Australia 2026: pre-qualifying

After the first and only practice of this sprint weekend * sigh * we had the joy of sprint qualifying. Smooth, recently resurfaced track, so takes a little time for tyres to warm up. And track evolution is very high (will affect proper qualifying too). Can still be rough on tyre wear, apparently. SQ1 and SQ2 all have to be on medium tyres, SQ3 has to be soft. Perez did not take part in SQ1 due to his car being wonky. Verstappen hit top speed and started clipping at or before halfway down the long straight between turns 13 and 14, which isn’t great… The Red Bull looked worst of the big four by some way. We said goodbye to Sainz, Albon, Alonso, Stroll, and Bottas, with Perez last of all due to not running. Mercedes, however, could hold around 320-325kph down the whole straight. McLaren are able to do something similar. In SQ2, Norris complained of being blocked by Antonelli which could lead to a penalty for the Italian. Very tight among those just in or out, but the half-dozen out were H...
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Australia 2026: pre-race

Well, qualifying was quite the twisty, turny thing. Reliability is looking very iffy, from outright failures (Bortoleto/Verstappen) to problms that could be resolved (Ferrari, although this did require a visit to the garage). Q1 had half the eliminations due to reliability. Neither Stroll nor Sainz were able to leave their garages or set a lap. Verstappen did start a flying lap but when he tried braking for the first corner his car decided this meant slapping on a handbrake, and he went straight into the barriers. This did, however, bring out a red flag and buy time for Mercedes to mend Antonelli’s car. The other eliminated chaps were Alonso, Perez, and Bottas. Q2 saw us wave goodbye to Hulkenberg (a tiny margin behind Bortoleto, who reached Q3 but whose car failed him at the end of Q2 meaning he couldn’t set a time), as well as Bearman, Ocon, Gasly, Albon, and Colapinto. Mildly surprised, post-testing, that the Haas and Alpine look behind Racing Bulls and Audi. Ferrari got through b...
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Australia 2026: pre-qualifying

This is up a day earlier than standard due to Australia’s irksome start time (really hope I get up in time for the 4am race start as that could be quite something). Notes A few quick notes I made after testing I missed from the previous post: Williams being a bit on the chunky side could make them sluggish in slow corners, (might be improved since testing, though). McLaren at the final test didn’t have the latest Mercedes engine so were slightly underpowered. Mercedes may be slightly better on cooling than other teams. Likely handy for hot races but could reverse their usually good performance in Las Vegas’ colder conditions. On the engine question, a change to the compression ratio measurement will take effect from 1 June. We will see if this has a real impact. Big Questions Will it be as hard to follow and overtake as widely anticipated? Will the season end up being an engine formula with a huge advantage for Mercedes (or someone else)? Will better energy harvesting/deployment mean...
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F1 2026 Pre-season Wibble

Hey, kids. To avoid cramming all of this in a pre-qualifying spiel for Australia, here’s a scattergun of my thoughts post-testing, which is subject to dramatic and immediate change once the sandbags are dropped for the first race of the season. Engine Reference Info Mercedes: Mercedes, McLaren, Williams, and Alpine Ferrari: Ferrari, Haas, and Cadillac Red Bull-Ford: Red Bull and Racing Bulls Honda: Aston Martin Audi: Audi Fuel I think it very likely this will get sorted, but last I heard (a few days ago), not every team had their fuel ready. This matters because failure to do so means using a stopgap fuel which is dramatically inferior (this will affect lap time if it happens). Shell (Ferrari, Haas, Cadillac), BP (Audi), and Red Bull Ford all have their affairs in order. I’d be very surprised if the others don’t, but it’s being cut rather fine. Future Changes There’s chatter of moving to 12 sprints in the future due to ‘fan demand’. This is obvious nonsense and is probably claimed...
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