MorrisF1

The race bet came off, although that may be due to luck, but if luck helps me out I won’t complain. Overall the weekend was very slightly red. I’m writing this after listening to it on the radio, and plan on giving the highlights on TV a look later. At the start it was largely formation flying at the sharp end. Further down the grid Webber had a good start, leaping to seventh (he started 10th) and Di Resta also made up some places. The closest thing to a major incident at the start was Massa and Rosberg having contact, which slightly damaged Rosberg’s car and put him down quite a few places (helpfully). Late on Rosberg’s engine died on him, which was probably due to overheating from running in dirty air for the entire race. Most of the frontrunners went for a three stop strategy, starting on softs. Raikkonen, although starting soft, went for a two stop, as did Webber and Button, both of whom started on the medium tyre. Hamilton’s tyre wear seemed the same as ever...

Well, that’ll teach me to be greedy. Grosjean was indeed top 3, but not pole. His pace was good but not quite good enough for the hedge to get matched. In Q1 it was business as usual, with Gutierrez joining the pointless teams. However, Di Resta had a shocker and finished a measly 18th. No traffic issues, the car simply was not fast enough. Q2 was more competitive, as might be expected. Both Williams, Vergne, Button, Hulkenberg and Sutil left at this stage. Q3 was more interesting than has been the case of late because there were three cars with a chance of pole: Red Bull, Mercedes and Lotus. Mercedes had seemed off the pace, but a last gasp lap from Hamilton put him on pole, snatching it away from Vettel, who was second. However, it’s worth noting that pole-sitters tend not to win at the Hungaroring, which is a bit weird given how hard it is to overtake. Grosjean and Rosberg share the second row, with Alonso and Raikkonen, Vettel’s title rivals, behind them. Massa and R...

Early weather forecasts suggested it could be 40C on race day. One imagines Mercedes were not pleased with such news. Mr. Jessop, on politicalbetting.com, suggested that this could lead to top teams dialling down pace in an effort to allow brakes and engines to survive the race. Teams that don’t do this could be faster in qualifying, but that’s no use if the cars subsequently fail in the race. Here’s what Paul Hembery of Pirelli had to say about the tyres ( http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2013/7/14817.html ): “With levels of lateral energy relatively low, tyre performance rather than durability will be the limiting factor and this will form the basis of the strategy selected – with the teams aiming to keep the tyres within the peak window of operating performance for as long as possible. The design of our latest tyres should help them to do this.” Speaking of Pirelli, they’ve announced their tyres for Spa, Monza and Singapore (I reckon Mercedes could do pretty w...

Feels like bloody ages since the last race, but it’s only been three weeks. Hungary’s effectively all by itself (not unlike Kim Jong-Il in Team America: World Police), because Spa follows it after a four week break. Pirelli have changed the tyre compounds from medium-hard to soft-medium (originally they were soft-medium, I think, but got moved in the hard direction when tyre issues occurred and have been moved back due to the new construction). In addition, it’s likely to be hot, which should help Lotus and Ferrari. Force India have typically done well in such conditions too, but their pace in Germany was unexpectedly poor and they (as well as Mercedes) appear to have been hit hard by the ban on swapping rear tyres. Obviously, the Pirellis are now a new construction, designed not to explode. However, Vettel and Hulkenberg both reckon that, for the driver, there’s little difference to the old ones. So, I’d guess the Germany pecking order is more or less what we’ll get a...

At this point we’re 10 races into the 19 race season, and the time has arrived for my traditional mid-season review of the racing. This is slightly later than usual, to allow the Young Driver (New Tyre) Test to take place first. Early on the season looked extremely finely balanced, with Lotus and Ferrari easier on tyres but Red Bull faster in qualifying. Unfortunately a combination of bad luck/poor races for the first two teams and (excepting Silverstone) a very reliable performance from Vettel/Red Bull has meant that the season’s now in danger of being another Red Bull procession. Mercedes began the season with good qualifying pace but eating tyres, seemed to get on top of the tyre wear, largely, to compete at the sharp end in the races, but appear to have been hit hard by the new ban on swapping rear tyres. It’s worth also saying that Force India’s performance in Germany was below par for what has otherwise been a very good season for them. The ban on Mercedes for the ...

I’m posting this on both http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/ , the new home of my F1 articles/tips this season, and http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/ , the old one, so that people who frequented the old site and may’ve missed the move are made aware. The mid-season review for betting will be shorter than usual because I’ve covered much of it previously. Normally, my season would involve a slow start, a strong end to the first half, a second half slump and a slight pick up at the end. This season has been weird. I had a great start, and a slump for almost all the rest of the first half of the season. In addition, I’ve always made smaller bets (often early on), and not tipped them on the basis of either buyer’s remorse, lack of liquidity or because I’m trying something new and cunning. Typically, these have made me losses, but this season I’ve had two winners at 8 (Rosberg to win Monaco and Lotus to top score in Germany). In short, this is Bizarro-season. H...

A day late, but thankfully not a dollar short. In terms of tips, I got my race one right, which was nice. Non-tipped bets (following one of Mr. Putney’s and a small sum at 8 on Lotus to top score) also both came off. So, the race was green, the record shows the weekend was red (by less than one stake) but my actual result was a solidly green weekend [although once again my Ladbrokes bets outshone the Betfair ones]. Special praise must go to Mr. Putney, who got a fantastic 5/6 bets right (engage smug mode: I did pick out the only one he’d get wrong and said I wouldn’t back it). For the record: “Button - top 10 finish ............... WON Vettel - outright win ................ WON Grosjean - top 6 finish .............. WON Webber - LAY Podium finish ........... WON Safety Car Deployment ................ WON Rosberg - podium finish .............. LOST” A fantastic result, Mr. Putney. Anyway, to the race mini-report: The start was unusual because Hamilton had a sli...

Well, in betting terms that could not have gone any worse. Exciting qualifying session, but both my bets look rather moronic. The first session of qualifying saw the usual pointless teams depart, and so did both Williams. Not the best way to celebrate their 600th race. In Q2 Mercedes made a serious cock-up. By leaving Rosberg in the pits the faster track meant everyone else posted better times and Rosberg was unable to respond and got shunted out in 11th. As one of the men likeliest to get pole that is a shocking error of judgement by the Silver Arrows. Toro Rosso, Sauber and McLaren had a mixed result, with Vergne 16th, Gutierrez 14th, Perez 13th. Force India had a poor (for this year) result with Di Resta 12th and Sutil 15th. The third session saw several drivers, including the Ferraris and Button, opt for a cunning plan. The soft tyre degrades after about 8-10 laps, but the medium is a second a lap slower. So, the above drivers went for the medium in Q3, hoping the ...

Much work has been done on the tyres, so credit to Pirelli given the short time window they had to play with. Drivers had threatened to boycott the German Grand Prix but the action (assuming it works) appears to have prevented such a PR catastrophe. The tyres are medium and soft. I only caught the back end of P1. Hamilton was fastest, followed by Rosberg, Webber, Sutil, Raikkonen, Massa, Button, Vettel, Grosjean and Perez. The Silver Arrows were a second ahead of the competition. I suspect some of that may be fuel, but unless the other teams had a fat passenger in their cars that’s ominous for the others. In P2 Vettel was fastest, followed by Rosberg, Webber, Grosjean, Raikkonen, Alonso, Massa, Hamilton, Button and Di Resta. An interesting comment was made by Rosberg about the new tyres. He reckons that although Mercedes isn’t helped by default, if the team can understand them more rapidly than others then that could make a few tenths of a second difference, eno...

Despite financial difficulties at one of the two German host circuits (I forget if it’s this one or Hockenheim, with which the Nurburgring alternates) we’re back to the Nurburgring this year. It seems mad to me that events like the Belgian or German Grand Prix can be in jeopardy due to financial reasons but tedious Monaco doesn’t even pay a race fee. Anyway, there are a few big issues to discuss ahead of P1. Before we get to the problems men face when rubber bursts just as they’re getting into things, let’s talk Vettel. Specifically, two weird stats. He’s never won the German Grand Prix. He’s never won a race in July. Even in his ultra-dominant 2011 season he only managed fourth at the Nurburgring. That’s something well worth keeping in mind when it comes to race betting. I also think that Mercedes could be set pretty fair. They’re the best qualifying team on the grid and showed very good race pace in Britain. I suspect Hamilton would’ve won the race, had he and Vettel not...