MorrisF1

From a betting perspective, more post-mortem than post-race. Three tips, none came off. Obviously the Hulkenberg tip was unlikely (although credible, I think, given he was side by side with Verstappen on the straight and both Mercedes went off track). The other two tips were just poorly judged. Pre-race, Grosjean had some issues and started from the pit lane. Palmer, whose cracked chassis prevented him qualifying, lined up 21 st on the grid. Off the line, Hamilton got away cleanly. Rosberg was side by side with Verstappen, Hulkenberg close behind. At the first corner Hamilton went off and only came back on some way down the road. Rosberg went off, squeezed out by Verstappen, at turn one, rejoined still 2 nd and kept the place. Neither Mercedes was penalised which I found somewhat surprising (more leeway must be given at the start but I’m not sure that extends to making corners optional). Further down the order Gutierrez, with the deft touch of a drunk wearing oven glo...

Qualifying was peculiar. Appeared very close between three teams then in Q3 Ferrari’s pace fell off a cliff. There was a bit of a jumbled up grid in the end, so hopefully that’ll present some betting opportunities. Remember that there’s a very long run to the first corner. Screw up your start and you’ll be staring at a Manor’s exhaust. Oddly, Palmer got a cracked chassis in third practice. That sort of thing happens, but he didn’t know, kept running, and was fine. However, it did mean he couldn’t partake in qualifying and therefore starts last. Dreadful Q1 for Haas, with both cars struggling and Grosjean slowest on track. Gutierrez was 17 th (again out-qualifying his team mate), and between them were Kvyat, Nasr and Ocon. However, the Manor of Wehrlein just made it into Q2 [only five eliminated here due to Palmer not running]. Q2 went more predictably, the only slight surprise being that Perez was only 12 th , behind Alonso. Following the Mexican was Button, Magnussen,...

After some discussion on the impact of thinner air (higher altitude) on aerodynamics and whether this would minimise or exacerbate variance in aerodynamic performance, it was decided that Mexico is a power circuit. Accordingly, this harms Honda the most, then Renault. Ferrari, having weaker aero but a lovely engine, benefit (as do Williams versus Force India). The Toro Rosso also seems likely to struggle. In P1, Hamilton was fastest, but less than a tenth ahead of Vettel, who was a similar margin ahead of Raikkonen. Perez, Hulkenberg and Bottas were next, with Rosberg only 7 th . Ricciardo, Massa and Kvyat rounded out the top 10. Second practice saw an even greater surprise with Vettel topping the timesheet four-thousandths ahead of Hamilton [that said, the Briton had a scruffy lap. On pure pace, the Mercedes was faster]. Rosberg was 3 rd but half a second off his team mate and just three-hundredths ahead of Raikkonen. Ricciard, Hulkenberg and Verstappen were next, with Bot...

It’s the morning after the night before. As usual, the Circuit of the Americas produced a very entertaining. It was neither profitable nor detrimental to finances, though, as the evens No Safety Car tip came off, but Hamilton selfishly hogged first place on the first lap. [Apologies for any slight errors in the order things happened, I tend to write race reports from memory]. Off the line, it seemed to be formation flying, but Rosberg couldn’t quite keep ahead of Ricciardo, and the Aussie slipped into 2 nd . Further down the field, there was contact aplenty. Bunching of the field at the wide first corner meant Bottas and Hulkenberg made contact. The German was out and the Finn had a puncture. To make matters worse for Force India, Perez had contact with Kvyat, and the Mexican ended up more or less last, facing the wrong way, but was able to get going (Kvyat ended up with a 10s penalty). Button, by contrast, had a flyer, rising from 19 th to 11 th on lap 1. Meanwhile ...

After some hope of an upset, it was pretty much business as usual in qualifying. In Q1, both Manors and Nasr failed to progress. Rather surprisingly (perhaps due to an initial run on soft tyres and then getting traffic in the form of Palmer when he was on supersofts) Button only qualified 19 th ). Grosjean and Magnussen also failed to go any further (both men have been out-qualified by their team mates a bit recently). Unusually, Q2 saw six different teams get a driver eliminated. From fastest to slowest, we lost Perez, Alonso, Kvyat, Gutierrez, Palmer and Ericsson. Ultimately, Hamilton got pole fairly comfortably, two-tenths up on Rosberg. However, most of the races at the circuit have been won from 2 nd on the grid, we know Hamilton’s starts are sometimes ropey, and the first corner is an overtaking opportunity, so anyone who cocks it up will get passed off the line and probably at turn 1 as well. Ricciardo and Verstappen are next. Interestingly, Verstappen and...

Hulkenberg is off to Renault. Makes Palmer’s situation look shakier than an octogenarian tightrope walker, and Magnussen’s not safe either (rumour has it Renault also want Bottas). The move also opens up a seat at Force India, with some speculating Wehrlein or Ocon could get the gig. In the short term this may mean Hulkenberg not scoring as much but I think long-term it’s a wise risk to take. Force India really do punch above their weight but without a cash injection it’s hard to see them competing regularly for wins. In a couple of years, especially with new rules changes, Renault might. In other intriguing news, machinations may be afoot at McLaren. Ron Dennis’ contract is up soon and may not be renewed due to shareholders. Of which there are three. One is him (25%), another is the Bahraini Royal Family (50%) and Mansour Ojjeh has the final 25%. It’s believed the latter two are intended not to renew the contract. Excitingly, this could pave a way back for McLaren nic...

Listened to this on the radio (unsure if I’ll bother with the highlights). From a betting perspective, red, but in a surprising way. No retirements at all must be unusual at Suzuka [edited: apparently it’s the second race in a row with no retirements, an F1 first. Should try and remember that for next time]. The race sounded reasonably entertaining, but we’ll see (I woke up before 5am and listened in bed) how much of it I can actually remember. Raikkonen got a five place grid penalty for a gearbox change. This shoved him down to 8 th and Vettel ended up 6 th . Both were on the slightly wet side of the track (only a little bit of moisture but enough to affect a start). Button started from the back, taking a ‘35’ place grid penalty to put new bits in his car. Off the line, Hamilton had an atrocious start, falling all the way down to 8 th . Perez had a cracker, storming to 3 rd ahead of Ricciardo (Hulkenberg rose to about 6 th ), and the Williams both went backwards. Vet...

By and large, Noah’s ark was the order of the day, with many drivers qualifying two-by-two. An interesting session which sets up the race quite intriguingly. Shame Vettel has a three place grid penalty, though. The first session went largely to script, with the Saubers and Manors at the back. Magnussen was 18 th and the (small) surprise departure was Button in 17 th . He’s struggled a bit with set-up and the McLaren has been a bit disappointing on pace. The second part of qualifying saw Alonso and Palmer at the back end, with the Toro Rossos (suffering now from the 2015 Ferrari engine they’ve got) in the middle. Surprisingly, Bottas and Massa both exited at this stage as well, pushed down by the Force Indias and the unexpected pace of the Haas (both Grosjean and Gutierrez making Q3 for the first time). Throughout the first two sessions Rosberg had been fastest. But in the first runs of the third session, Hamilton was top dog, Rosberg two-tenths down. Although the Ferra...

Due to the earliness of all the sessions, I’m posting the pre-qualifying piece today rather than Saturday. Rain had been forecast for qualifying but now seems to be drifting off (of course, if forecasts are wrong both or one of qualifying and the race could still be affected, making predicting outcomes trickier). Worth noting all Mercedes engines will be running in a lower mode than its best, following Hamilton’s flaming disaster last time out. This will obviously impact performance, but I expect it to be marginal, rather than dramatic. Also, remember Vettel has a three place grid penalty for his ill-judged first lap in Malaysia. In first practice Rosberg was two-tenths up on Hamilton, who was nearly a second faster than Vettel, with Raikkonen next. The Ferraris were followed by Ricciardo and Verstappen, with Hulkenberg, Perez, Alonso and Bottas rounding out the top 10. Second practice again had Rosberg fastest over Hamilton, but this time by less than a tenth. Rai...

A cracking race, with drama from the first lap almost to the last. Strategic cunning, mishap, great drives and grave misfortune. And the bet even came off, despite three or four Virtual Safety Cars. At the instigation of the formation lap, Massa discovered his throttle was being disobedient and had to be wheeled into the pits. Whilst Williams managed to get his car working, it meant a pit lane start in last rather than a 10 th place start. Off the line it seemed to be more or less formation flying. But Vettel miscalculated into the first corner. He tagged Rosberg and spun his compatriot around, and, in the process, ruined his own left front suspension, ending his race. Clumsy, and not for the first time this year from Vettel. He was out, and Rosberg was last (a Virtual Safety Car came out here, neutralising the race for a couple of laps). At the end of lap 1 Alonso had leapt up to 12 th and Perez had risen to around 3 rd . Several cars took advantage of the VSC to pi...

In third practice Hamilton looked to have the whip hand, with Red Bull closer to Ferrari than I expected. The first session of qualifying was very much as you might expect. Alonso, now with a 45 place grid penalty, did the bare minimum, and the Manors, Saubers and Palmer also left at this stage. There weren’t many surprises in Q2 either. The biggest was that Button escaped to Q3 and Bottas (starting 11 th ) did not. Behind the Finn are the Haas drivers, Magnussen and the Toro Rossos. In Q3 things looked a bit odd after the first runs. Rosberg was only fastest for the third row, a mile behind his pole-sitting team mate, the Red Bulls and, I think, a Ferrari. On the second run, however, normal service was resumed and we have another Hamilton-Rosberg front row. Verstappen and Ricciardo are next and, reportedly, the Red Bull has been rather quick on the long runs. Must say I’m surprised Ferrari are only on the third row. Whilst the gap to Ricciardo (for Vettel) is just...