MorrisF1

As a special Christmas present, here’s a season review. And what a jolly year it was (if you followed my tips, which were a delightful mixture of well-judged and bloody lucky). In terms of the blog tips, this was my most successful betting year. That’s nice, especially considering it doesn’t include the flukey timing of the Sakhir-Hamilton bets and that I missed Russia because my internet wasn’t working. It’s also worth noting I had more good luck than bad, including a few very significant slices. Norris being winner without the top chaps in Styria (12) was particularly lucky as he grabbed it at the line. Many long term bets also came off, including one from a couple of years ago on Hamilton beating Schumacher’s win record at 9. A pre-season tip on Racing Point to be third didn’t come off, but the in-season tip on McLaren did (just over 3). Likewise my Leclerc hedge to be best of the rest failed, but the Perez tip at just over 3 did come off. Using Hedged stats, 13 of 26 blog bet...

Well, I wanted the race to be profitable and entertaining. And I got half my wish. The Verstappen bet not only came off, it never looked in real doubt. Modest little win to round off a very good season from a sporting and betting perspective. Off the line it was formation flying for almost everyone. Nobody crashed into anyone else, the only real change was Leclerc slipping back a spot behind his team mate (not great for the Monegasque as he was on the medium and his team mate, for the final time, had the hards on). Verstappen effortlessly eased away from the Mercedes and Hamilton was never in Bottas’ DRS window when that became active. It was at this point that the one interesting thing permitted at each race in Abu Dhabi occurred: Perez, who had been making solid progress carving through the field, suffered a car failure and had to pull over. This brought out a VSC and practically everyone except Ricciardo and the Ferraris pitted. The VSC then became an actual safety car. Vers...

And so we come to the final qualifying session of a very odd F1 season. Q1 was not very odd, however. Both Haas and Williams left at this stage, as did Raikkonen. Q2 was rather more peculiar. Perez didn’t bother setting a time due to his engine penalty (he starts last but one, only Fittipaldi behind him). Giovinazzi and Vettel also failed to progress. Quite unexpectedly, both Renaults failed to make the top 10, Ocon ahead of Ricciardo. This may not be so bad, as a single stop from starting on mediums could be the optimal approach. Speaking of which the Mercedes, Leclerc, Verstappen, and Sainz all set their Q2 times on medium tyres and progressed, so will start on those same tyres. Soft starters include Norris, the AlphaTauris, Stroll, and Albon. In Q3 the first runs had Bottas fastest, ahead of Verstappen, Hamilton, and Albon, that quartet covered by a tenth and a half. The third row was a McLaren duel, Sainz two-tenths ahead of Norris (but on fresh rather than used rubber). ...

I’m glad Hamilton’s alright but I rather wish he’d missed this race. Before his announced return, Ladbrokes had Russell, Bottas, and Verstappen all 2.87 for the win. Hamilton is now 1.36, with Bottas and Verstappen 6. Hoping Ferrari and Red Bull (and others) can make a significant leap forward next year so things are tighter more often at the sharp end. Leclerc has a 3 place grid penalty from the last race, when he was deemed to have caused a collision. In addition, Magnussen and Perez both have power unit changes so they’ll likely start from the back of the grid. In first practice, Verstappen was fastest, three-hundredths up on Bottas. Ocon was next but 1.1s down the road. Albon, Hamilton, and Stroll followed, with Perez, Kvyat, Gasly, and Raikkonen rounding out the top 10. Bottas has had strong first practice sessions in the latter half of the year which may paint the Red Bull in a favourable light. Second practice saw Bottas fastest, two-tenths ahead of his team mate and seven...

Well, bugger me with a fishfork. That was a season in a race. The bet came off, but bloody hell it was dramatic. A lot happened, so forgive me if I misremember details. Off the line Bottas had a trademark bad start. Verstappen got away well but found himself the filling in a Mercedes sandwich and had to back off. Russell, meanwhile, leapt ahead of his team mate and drove off, building up a nice lead rapidly. Further back, Verstappen was keeping out of the way of Perez when Leclerc tried passing the Mexican only to tap him. Perez was put to the back of the field, the Monegasque was out of the race and Verstappen’s attempted evasive action saw him DNF as well. Cue the safety car. Perez pitted for fresh rubber and was 18 th of 18 cars. The Mercedes looked in control, and were. For now. Perez was aided by the safety car and set about hauling himself through the field. Meanwhile, Sainz, Ricciardo, and Kvyat were in high positions. Through the pit stops, an AlphaTauri undercut p...

Tricky call on whether to back Russell to be top 2 in qualifying. In the end, it came off and was modestly green, but it could’ve easily been very green or red, such were the tiny margins amongst the top three drivers in qualifying. In Q1 we lost both Williams, both Haas, and Raikkonen. Aitken was within a tenth of Latifi, which is impressive given it’s his first time qualifying. Fittipaldi was further back but that’s to be expected given new parts meant grid penalties which guaranteed he’d start last anyway. Q2 was interesting in that every eliminated car was from a different team. Norris buggered things up, or his team sent him out early, and he was slowest of all. Ocon, Albon, Vettel, and Giovinazzi likewise failed to progress. I believe Q2 chaps on the medium were the Mercedes, Verstappen, Leclerc, and Ricciardo. Could be wrong, but I think that’s right. The first Q3 runs were interesting as Verstappen was fastest and Leclerc, out of nowhere, was right behind him. It turned...

I was lucky to catch, minutes after the announcement, that Hamilton was to miss this race due to COVID-19. Therefore backed Verstappen and Bottas at 6 and 5.5 rapidly, before Ladbrokes could change the odds. Doubtful, given the next race is just a week later, Hamilton will be ok for that, but not impossible. This kicked off driver changes aplenty, odd for such a time of year. Russell gets a drive in a Mercedes for at least this race and perhaps the next. His place at Williams is taken by fellow Briton Jack Aitken. Meanwhile, Grosjean is replaced by Pietro Fittipaldi this weekend, with Mick Schumacher (announced as a Haas driver next year, alongside Nikita Mazepin) volunteering to take the seat next race if Grosjean cannot return in Abu Dhabi. The first session of practice had interesting results. Russell topped the session, a tenth ahead of Verstappen, with Albon just a tenth further back. Bottas could only manage fourth, over three-tenths behind his temporary team mate. The track ...