MorrisF1

I’ve backed Nottingham Forest to win at home versus Everton at 2.84 . Home advantage is significant and Forest are a little ahead in the table so the odds look too long. I’ve also backed Alonso for a podium in Bahrain at 3.8 . Intrigued to see how the teams stack up. Odds are at Ladbrokes plus boost. Morris Dancer

As always, bets are with Smarkets unless noted otherwise, and wager at your own risk. EPL Lay West Ham at home versus Nottingham Forest at 1.84 . Forest are above them in the table and in the last half-dozen matches have lost just once. The away record is a bit iffy, with three draws and one win in 11 matches but the odds are still too long. West Ham, in 10 home matches to date, have drawn twice and lost five times, and have a single win in the last dozen matches. I've laid Liverpool to win away at Crystal Palace at 1.79 . Nine points separate them in the table, and both have poor recent records (two wins, three losses, a draw for Liverpool, four draws and two losses for Crystal Palace). While Palace are so-so at home they have managed to hold Manchester United and Newcastle to draws. Ligue 1 No bet this time. La Liga I've laid Sevilla to win at home versus Osasuna at 1.97 . Osasuna are five points higher in the table, and have a very strong away record (two wins and six...

Bundesliga I’ve backed over 2.5 goals in the Bochum versus Freiburg match at 1.94 . This has occurred in seven of nine home matches for Bochum this season, and seven out 10 away matches for Freiburg. It’s also occurred in three of their four most recent encounters, and four out of Freiburg’s last five matches. Bochum also has the leakiest defence in the league with 49 concessions in 20 matches. I’ve also laid Bayer Leverkusen to win at home versus Mainz at 1.86 . They have similarly patchy records of late and are separated by a single point in the table. At home, Leverkusen have four losses and two draws from 10 matches, while away Mainz have four wins and a draw from 10 matches. Was tempted to just back the Mainz win but a draw is eminently possible. We’ll see if making two bets on a league I tend to be terrible at proves foolish, but that’s where I saw things that interested me. Nothing in Serie A or Ligue 1 caught my eye, except that tons of the matches in Serie A are t...

La Liga Decided to lay Sevilla to win at home versus Mallorca at 1.98 . The away side have a better overall league position and Sevilla’s home record is poor, with three wins, four losses, and three draws. Ligue 1 I’ve backed both teams to score in the Reims-Troyes match at 1.83 . Troyes has scored in all but one away match this year, and has conceded in every away match, while Reims has conceded in 70% of home matches and scored in 70% of them. Bundesliga Backed Augsburg to win away at Mainz at 4.5 . The sides are very even in the league position and Augsburg has a slightly better recent record. Among their three away wins this year were surprises against Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen. Mainz, however, has only two wins this year at home, although plenty of draws. Was a bit torn between this and the laying of Mainz to win. No Serie A bets tickled my fancy this round. Morris Dancer

I’ve backed the Leicester-Spurs match to have over 3.5 goals at 2.8 . This has occurred in six (out of 11) of Spurs’ away matches this season and Leicester have one of the highest goals against stats in the league. Also backed Arsenal to beat Manchester City at 2.87 . Highly equal teams but home advantage is nothing to be sniffed at. And City have lost away to Spurs, Liverpool, and Manchester United this season already, whereas Arsenal have drawn once and won every other home match to date. Unusually, both these bets are with Ladbrokes, and prices are boosted. Morris Dancer

No EPL, Ligue 1, La Liga or Serie A bets caught my eye. Bundesliga I’ve laid Bayern Munich to win away at Wolfsburg at 1.65 . They’ve drawn 7 and lost 1 match this year, from 18 played, and Wolfsburg has an impressive home record with a single loss all season. Bit tentative returning to the Bundesliga, but Bayern Munich have drawn a lot this year. So, that’s a bit sparse for five leagues, but there we are. As ever, bets are with Smarkets unless noted otherwise, bet at your own risk. Or not, of course. Morris Dancer