MorrisF1

  Verstappen dominated first practice, four-tenths ahead of Hamilton, who led a very tight pack and was just ahead of Perez (then came Alonso and Leclerc). Sainz was a little further off, a few-hundredths ahead of his friend Norris, with Gasly, Russell, and Stroll rounding out the top 10. Second practice was wet, which rather reduces the value of the times, although some were set prior to precipitation. Alonso was top of the time sheet, four-tenths ahead of Leclerc, with Verstappen a tenth and a half further back. Russell, Sainz, Ocon, Perez, Norris, Hulkenberg, and Gasly completed the top half of the field. I’ve seen some murmuring about car upgrades, including on Mercedes, but we’ll only see for certain in qualifying and the race. The gap to Red Bull is so colossal it’s hard to see it being substantially narrowed from one race to another but improvements could see Mercedes take the advantage in their battle with Aston Martin and Ferrari. Perez is still available at 5 ...

EPL Lay Brighton at home versus Brentford, at 1.7 (Similar points albeit two games fewer for Brentford but they've been good away). Lay Chelsea home to Villa, at 1.71 , identical points so odds too short. Ligue 1 Lay Lille home to Lorient at 1.41 , similar teams on points, similar recent record, Lorient very good away from home (tempting at 8.5ish for the straight away win). Serie A Nothing caught my eye this time. Formula 1 F1 Perez win each way at 5.5 on Ladbrokes is too long given the dominance the Red Bull has over the field. 4 for him to get pole (even each way) is probably too short, though. Morris Dancer

  Aided by blind luck, what I thought was a great each way bet for a strong 2 nd ended up paying off nicely. And the grid is intriguingly poised for the race. Logan Sargeant set a great time in Q1 that was good enough for him to reach Q2. Until it was scrapped for exceeding track limits, after which he was never able to get his head together and ended up dead last. Both AlphaTauris exited at this stage, as did Albon’s Williams and Norris’ McLaren, which was unable to be mended in the pits to enable another hot lap. And this was not the end of the reliability woe. Verstappen, seeming destined for pole, was failed by his car (drive shaft, apparently) and qualified a mere 15 th . Q2 saw the less shocking departures of the Alfa Romeos and both Haas drivers (NB Hulkenberg had the pace but a quick lap was eliminated and a late second run was just not quite there. Perhaps one for points). Into Q3 it looked, to me, like a Perez-Alonso fight, possibly with Leclerc up there on ti...

Well, Ferrari made a great start to the season, with a DNF for Leclerc in the first race followed by a 10 place grid penalty in the second (here) for already exceeding the season long limit on electronic units. Both red cars are also running fresh power units ‘as a precaution’. In first practice a Red Bull 1-2 was headed by Verstappen, with Alonso and Stroll making it 3-4 for Aston Martin. Russell and Hamilton followed this Noah’s Ark pattern, which was ruined by the latter quartet in the top 10 being Sainz, Gasly, Albon, and Tsunoda. Verstappen was fastest again in second practice, two-tenths up on Alonso and Perez, suggesting Aston Martin may be the Red Bull’s closest challenger. At least when it’s driven by a Spaniard with two functioning hands. Ocon in 4 th was unexpected, narrowly ahead of Russell, Gasly, and Stroll, with Hulkenberg, Leclerc, and Sainz rounding out the top 10. A little while ago I tipped on here Perez each way to win the race at 7. There’s actually sligh...

  No Serie A or Ligue 1 bets tickled my fancy this time around. La Liga I’ve laid Sevilla to win at home versus Almeria at 1.73 . The two sides are equal on points, and while Almeria’s away form has not been strong (just three draws, hence not backing the away win) the odds are too short on a home win. Both sides have a poor recent record. Also backed Real Betis to win away at Villareal at 4.3 . Very similar deal, though higher up the table and with both sides in good form. The difference is that while Villareal are solid at home, Real Betis has had a lot of away wins this season. My La Liga bets have been rather poorer post-computer crisis. We’ll see if this continues. I’ve decided to take a break from the Bundesliga for a while at least. Formula 1 In addition, there are some F1 bets worth considering, and one clear tip. One race is not enough to have a rock solid view but it obviously gives a lot of insight into car performance. Red Bull are fine on their tyres and...

  I feel unreasonably aggrieved at the Albon bet failing. Bit of a weird feeling, actually, as the other two bets came off. Before the race Leclerc’s Ferrari looked iffy so various parts were changed. As expected, he had fresh softs, most others had old softs, and Magnussen had the hard tyre on. Off the line Perez started poorly and did well to only lose a place to Leclerc rather than both Ferraris. Hamilton passed his team mate and got past Alonso too, who fell behind both Mercedes thanks to a whack from Stroll (though given how things turned out I suspect he’ll be quick to forgive the Canadian. Probably). Verstappen then did what was feared and effortlessly drove off into the distance. Unless Red Bull cock up the development race they’ll get both titles this year. Leclerc was not too far back and Perez was able to stay with him, the pair getting away from Sainz who was slowly getting away from the Mercedes and Alonso. Towards the end of the initial soft stint the...

Ahead of qualifying I’d been relatively optimistic on Alonso and Aston Martin’s prospects. As it happened, he was close but did make small errors in a tight contest that saw him qualify 5 th . Hopes for a good race remain, however. It was a Q1 session to forget for Pierre Gasly, who had his time eliminated for track limit violation and starts last. Logan Sargeant, Williams’ new driver, was eliminated but only because his identical time with Norris was set second. Magnussen, Piastri, and De Vries all exited too. Q2 was highly competitive and saw Lando Norris the fastest of the eliminated drivers, ahead of Bottas and Zhou Guanyu, with Tsunoda and Albon also exiting the stage. So far, Red Bull had looked quickest but with Ferrari, Alonso, and Mercedes also in the hunt. Come Q1, Verstappen did what Verstappen does and ended up with yet another pole, around a tenth up on his team mate to make it a Red Bull front row. Row two is Ferrari-land, with Leclerc the faster driver. Worry...

And so to the first race, with Stroll recovered enough to drive but having missed the solitary pre-season test. In first practice we had Perez top dog, four-tenths up on Alonso and six-tenths ahead of his Dutch team mate. Norris was surprisingly 4 th in the McLaren, which looked a dog in the test and may indicate just how little attention we should pay to practice (or a very quick turnaround), with Leclerc and Stroll following. Magnussen, Zhou Guanyu, Bottas, and Hamilton rounded out the top 10 (Russell was 11 th ). Second practice had Alonso go one better and top the session, a tenth and a half ahead of Verstappen (who was just two-thousandths up on Perez). Leclerc and Hulkenberg were both three-tenths down the road, followed closely by Stroll and Gasly. Hamilton, Norris, and Zhou Guanyu followed. The Aston Martin is undoubtedly tasty and a huge improvement on last year. But the question remains as to whether this is a midfield king or has made the step up into the race (o...

Serie A I’ve backed the Napoli versus Lazio match to have over 2.5 goals at evens . This has occurred in 8 of 11 home matches for Napoli this season, and in all of the two teams’ last four encounters. Ligue 1 Laid Toulouse to win at home versus Clermont at 1.85 . The teams are a point apart in the table, and both have poor recent records (Toulouse a little better, to be fair). In 13 home matches to date Toulouse have a win/draw/loss record of 6/4/3, while Clermont have four away wins and four away draws (and four away losses). I’ve also backed Lorient to win away at Lyon at 6.5 (Ladbrokes’ boosted). Highly similar to the above match, just a point between the sides so the odds look misplaced. Lyon have a trio of home losses and draws apiece, with six wins, while Lorient have five away wins, three away draws, and four away losses. For the above two bets it can be argued whether it’s wiser to lay the home side or back the away side. I don’t have a firm view on reckoning this g...