MorrisF1

Well, my bet came off, which is nice, but the race was perhaps the most boring Azerbaijan has ever hosted. However, there were some items of interest. Off the line, the top six flew in formation. Fast forward a few laps and both Red Bulls had got past Leclerc. Perez managed his tyres better than his team mate which meant the Mexican was in prime position to strike and claim the lead. Tyre management had also been a problem for Hamilton who had pitted relatively early, to Alonso’s advantage. The team called Verstappen in, only for De Vries to clock an inside corner. He was far from the only one to do so during the race but he did bugger his car and bring out a safety car. The other top drivers all pitted, pushing Verstappen behind Leclerc and meaning Hamilton was behind his team mate. On the restart, Verstappen immediately passed Leclerc and Russell messed it up, allowing his team mate right past him. For the most part, that was that for the race. While the DRS zone on th...

  And so, the most stupid format since the last attempt to fiddle with qualifying plays out this weekend. In qualifying for the actual race, there was something of a upset, and two red flags (which were not surprising at all). First part of qualifying saw a red flag when De Vries smacked into a corner, and another when, on the restart, Gasly tagged the wall. Some others did gently hit walls and got away with it, but not great for either chap. When Magnussen had to pit due to a technical problem this filled three-fifths of the Q1 departures list. Zhou Guanyu and Hulkenberg (who had looked pretty swift earlier) ended up completing the list. In Q2 Russell was eliminated by two-hundredths, just behind Hamilton (who made it through). Ironically, his team mate had given Piastri, who knocked Russell into the drop zone, a tow on the straight. Ocon also left, as did Albon, who bemoaned Sainz getting in his way. The Williams had looked a potential Q3 contender, though Sargeant may...

I despise the sprint race format of weekends. So, Friday qualifying at 2pm. Idiots. I am going to watch the qualifying, sprint race, and race (plan to, anyway) but not sprint qualifying. I’m also only going to bet, I think, on the race. So, just a heads up this foolish format of a weekend will, from a blogging angle, have just pre-race and maybe post-race ramble. Morris Dancer

  EPL I’ve backed Bournemouth to win at home versus Leeds at 2.76 . The home side has two defeats but three wins in the last five matches, to Leeds three defeats, one draw, one win. Bournemouth have a pretty average home record, while Leeds are poor away. Ligue 1 Went for Clermont to win at home versus Reims at 3.1 . The home side has won three on the bounce, whereas the visitors have lost twice in their most recent matches. A single point separates them in the table, so the odds for a home win feel a little long. Serie A Decided to back Lazio to win away at Inter Milan, at 4.8 . Lazio are seven points higher in the table and while their most recent match was a loss they had won the four prior games (whereas Inter Milan won their last match but had three losses and a draw before that). Lazio also have a very impressive home record, so I’m surprised their odds are so long. Might not come off, of course, but the number is bigger than expected. (NB the Lazio bet is ...

  EPL Decided to lay Chelsea to win at home versus Brentford at 1.74 . Brentford have a game in hand but are five points higher, and have a decent away record. Chelsea, meanwhile, are fairly average at home. Both have terrible recent records and in their last 10 matches combined there’s not been a single win for either side. Also laid Manchester City to win at home versus Arsenal at 1.6 . Arsenal have a 5 point lead but are two matches further along, making things much of a muchness. While home advantage matters a lot, for two roughly equal sides the odds are too long on an Arsenal win or draw. Was quite tempted by the Arsenal away win but decided to go for a slightly hedgier option. Morris Dancer

EPL I’ve backed Bournemouth to win at home versus West Ham at 2.96 . Bournemouth are currently two points ahead in the table but do have a game in hand, so very much equals on that score. Recent form is also similar, slightly better for the home side. West Ham have only two away wins so far, and three ties, with the rest (nine) being away losses. Bournemouth are neither notably good nor poor at home, but I do think home advantage makes this worth backing. Ligue 1 I’ve backed Clermont to win away at Nice at 5.7 . In the table, Nice are on 45 points to Clermont’s 43. Clermont have a strong away record, with half their 12 wins this season coming on the road. Nice’s home form is not terrible but the large number of draws and some losses mean the wins are just five from 15. Because of this, laying the win is also quite tempting. As ever, that’s a judgement call/educated guess/wild stab in the dark after sacrificing a goat to the gods. I went for the Clermont win as they have a ...

  As always, football bets are with Smarkets unless noted otherwise. Bet at your own risk, and only bet what you can afford to lose. I tend not to comment, good or bad, on results, but getting two own goals in results that went against me did feel a little bit unreasonable of the universe. Until I remembered my super flukey Saudi Arabia results on Perez, for which they provided some cosmic balance, perhaps. EPL Decided to back Aston Villa to win at home versus Newcastle at 3.75 . While Newcastle have a game in hand, their advantage over the home side stands at nine points currently, which is a reasonable but not incredible margin. Both have very good recent records (Newcastle aided by an opposition own goal last time), so the home odds feel a little long to me. Serie A I’ve laid Torino to win at home to Salernitana at 1.83 . While they enjoy home advantage and are ahead in the table, Torino have also had some losses of late, while Salernitana have made drawing ...

  EPL Decided to back Brentford to win at home versus Newcastle at 3.85 . While the Magpies are ahead in the table by 10 poins and have better recent form, Brentford have an impressive home record with a solitary defeat so far. It’s worth mentioning Newcastle have a good away record too, but think the odds might be a little too long. Also backed Fulham to win at home versus West Ham at 2.88 . Both have patchy recent records but Fulham are 12 points the better at the time of writing and have home advantage. Fulham’s home record is mixed, West Ham’s away record is poor, with one win and three draws to nine defeats. Serie A A new member of PB suggested backing Salernitana at home versus Inter Milan (around 7 on Ladbrokes). Not backing this myself, but if you’ve got a free bet it’s something to consider. I’ve laid Atalanta to win at home versus Bologna at 1.74 . The two teams are eight points apart in the table, and have similar recent records. Ligue 1 Nothi...

  An entertaining, albeit red, race that ended in a rather disappointing farce. Safety car, VSC, two standing restarts and three red flags. Apologies if I miss stuff out or get the order wrong, it was an early start and a lot happened. Off the line Verstappen lost out to both Russell and Hamilton, while Leclerc visited the gravel trap for an early retirement. Cue the safety car. Perez, who started from the pit lane on hard tyres, came in (as did others at the lower end) and then had a second stop for more hard tyres so he could just go to the end. A short time later a safety car for Albon’s crash helped Perez, closing things up, but it graduated to a red flag which buggered the Mexican as almost everyone ahead of him hadn’t stopped yet (Russell and Sainz had, and were a couple of places ahead) robbing him of places he would’ve gained in the pit stops. It was lovely for Verstappen and Hamilton (the latter still leading) as they got a free tyre change, and very rough for ...

  I’m something of an insomnia connoisseur, but even for me last night was terrible. As such, I overslept (having been awake at 5.30am and struggled to sleep up until the point I didn’t want to). The upside was that the red flag period was just ending as I tuned in. Q1 saw one shock departure: Sergio Perez. He locked a wheel, though it’s uncertain whether this was a failure of the car or driver. Either way, he’s last. Both Alfa Romeos and Sargeant also failed to progress, as did local lad Piastri. In Q2 we lost both AlphaTauris, with Ocon eliminated by seven-thousandths. Norris and Magnussen also failed to escape. This session was notable for Albon looking bizarrely quick and things appearing close at the sharp end. So to Q3, with a chance of rain in the dying moments. As it happened, it never turned up, but things looked close as Verstappen struggled with car problems (downshifts and something else unspecified). But it magically cleared up and he stormed to pole, again...