MorrisF1

On 16 January it emerged that Ron Dennis, former CEO and team principal of McLaren and its F1 team, had wrested back the position of CEO from Martin Whitmarsh (also team principal, at the team of writing). Speculation abounded that someone who isn’t Whitmarsh would be the McLaren team principal. Ross Brawn’s name was suggested. This probably decreases the chances of Alonso rejoining McLaren, as Dennis is the sole focus of his ire regarding the broken promise of number one status in 2007. With speculation rife Vettel will go to Ferrari in a year or two, we could see Alonso join Red Bull or maybe Mercedes/another team that’s highly competitive. It was hoped, due to the widespread incredulity and displeasure of spectators around the world, that the insane plan to award double points for Abu Dhabi (the final race this season) would be axed. Sadly, it has not been, and the deranged idea is to go ahead. This is utterly indefensible and completely stupid. Just as speculation wa...

New engines, weight limit and fixed gear ratios are all part of the 2014 regulation changes. We also have a big change to the driver lineups. I’m going to look at the regulations first (warning, this post will probably be bloody enormous). Weight limit - F1 cocked this up. In essence, the weight limit’s too low which means taller drivers (Button, Hulkenberg, maybe Grosjean) will be penalised, and dinky chaps (Alonso, Massa) will benefit by quite a bit. We’re talking 0.2-0.4s per lap, give or take. That’s a huge chunk of time. However, it may matter less than it otherwise would due to the significant changes made in other areas. The weight limit is likely to be increased for 2015. “That means a smaller driver such as Ferrari's Fernando Alonso, who weighs 68kg, is at an advantage over a taller one such as Force India's Nico Hulkenberg, who weighs nearly 80kg, to the tune of 0.42secs a lap if the team cannot reduce the car by the amount of their weight difference.” ...

2013 was the fifth year I’ve offered tips on pb.com, pb2 and/or the new blog here. So, I thought it’d be interesting to post graphs of each year (partial for 2009) and some interesting(ish) bets and races. I’ll probably put up a look ahead to 2014 article next week, and that’ll be it for quite some time. The graphs reflect what would have happened if you backed each of my tips at £10 (I think the first two are just bet-and-forget, rather than hedged). They don’t include anything other than qualifying and race bets, so no title or driver market bets. Best tip: Button to win the 2009 title at 70/1. Most satisfying result: Button climbing from last to first in the 2011 Canadian Grand Prix (backed McLaren at 5.9).     Most profitable race: Monza 2009. With a standard £10 stake, the profit was £81. Best run of bets: Six in a row (2011). Worst result: Canada 2010, China 2011 (-£40). Morris Dancer

This year was weird, in all kinds of ways. The most obvious and irksome was that after two good years this one was red overall. Not to an enormous degree, but still. Another oddity was that untipped bets (typically due to lack of liquidity, instant regret or backing something unusually early) were generally green (the reverse is normally true), so I actually finished ahead. Another weird feature was that I lost almost all the time on Betfair, and won almost all the time with Ladbrokes. So, one of my accounts is diminished and feeble, and the other is overly large. The season got off to a great start. Solely to avoid voluntarily missing a bet on the first race I backed Ferrari to top score at 5.5, and they did. Given my seasons usually start with 2-4 races of redness before I get my eye in I thought this boded well. How wrong I was. Every other race in the first half of the season was red (excepting a 45p profit in the UK). The second half was similarly poor, althou...

It’s a long way back now, but the start of the season was actually really promising. Lotus, Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull all looked competitive. Lotus and Ferrari were kinder to the tyres, but Mercedes and Red Bull has better raw pace. It was finely balanced. Force India made a cracking start to the season, and them beating McLaren seemed possible. McLaren, by contrast, had managed to turn what was the fastest car in 2012 into perhaps the sixth fastest in 2013. Hamilton’s jumping ship to Mercedes had been considered by many (including me) to be bad for 2013 but possibly good for 2014. As it happened, it was a great decision for this year. However, a huge change occurred around the halfway point. Crumbly tyres are desired by the sport’s bigwigs, but tyres that explode around Silverstone are a step too far. So, the tyres were hardened and swapping left and right rear tyres was banned. The former gave Red Bull a critical advantage, and the latter really harmed Force Ind...

Sadly, Rosberg didn’t really get near a podium place, and his 5th place finish flattered him as Massa and Hamilton got drive-throughs. It might have been different if it had rained, but it didn’t. For the first time this weekend it was dry in Sao Paulo, making it hard to predict how the cars would go (particularly as some would have wet setups and others setups suited for the dry). The start was pretty good. Rosberg dove into the lead, and Alonso had a pretty nice start. However, it soon became apparent Rosberg lacked speed, and a radio transmission revealed this was due to lack of rear grip. He began an inexorable decline through the order. Once Vettel was ahead he had an easy time of it, yet again. Red Bull forgot to get the tyres ready for his pit stop, but his advantage at that point was such it didn’t materially alter the state of play. Webber had a nice tussle with Alonso, whose Ferrari was motoring along nicely, and eventually ended up on top. A decent fin...

Qualifying began drier than it’s been all weekend, but with the rain starting to fall again. Intermediate tyres were the order of the day, and all teams rushed to set early laps as conditions worsened. Gutierrez and Maldonado left along with the pointless teams in Q1. Not too surprising. Both Force Indias and both McLarens failed to escape Q2, and Perez ended the session by crashing his car. Kovalainen could only manage 11th, and Bottas was 13th. The start of Q3 was repeatedly delayed because the rain was too torrential even for wet weather tyres. Rosberg’s lay value dropped to 4.3 (as I mentioned on pb.com for those who wanted a safe hedge). Eventually Q3 got under way, and so much time had been wasted that by the time they got out it was only a lap or two before they switched wets for intermediates (not unlike the over-cautious use of safety cars in the wet). Sadly, Vettel got pole, with a surprisingly and suddenly huge margin. Not sure, but I’d hazard a guess he...