MorrisF1

The Sainz qualifying bet could have come off but he lost almost half a second in the first sector. But for that, a great chance he could’ve parked in 2 nd in the surprisingly large gap available, so a bit irked he was undone by the Ferrari’s difficulties in the first sector (he nailed it in Q2 but both he and Leclerc struggled in Q3). In Q1, Schumacher put in a cracking lap to easily escape, only for it to be eliminated as he clearly cut a corner while setting it. This put him out (ironically, allowing Magnussen, who has a grid penalty, to proceed). Both Aston Martins and both Williams were also out. Q2 was very tight (the top four were covered by 0.014s). At the lower end, Ricciardo, Zhou Guanyu (notably slower than the impressive Bottas), Tsunoda, Gasly, and Magnussen were cut. It was shaping up very nicely for a classic super close pole position shootout as the Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull all set almost identical times in Q2. But it was not to be. When it came to the crun...

Just the one bet, on Almeria to win at home versus Celta Vigo at odds of 3.35. Almeria have a so-so home record with three wins from five, and Celta Vigo have only won a single away match this year, losing the others (and that against a team lower than Almeria).   Morris Dancer

Shade off-colour so that might affect betting, blogs etc. Off-track news first: Audi are going to team up with Alfa Romeo/Sauber from 2026 which could make it the most potent force it’s been since the BMW/Kubica days. On-track, first practice had the two top six covered by two-tenths. Sainz was less than half a tenth ahead of Leclerc, with Perez and Verstappen close behind and setting identical times. Hamilton was two-hundredths further back, followed closely by Alonso. Bottas, Norris, Gasly, and Vettel completed the top 10. Second practice was longer, had some tyre testing for the 2023 set, and Leclerc crashed out. For the sake of completeness, the order was Russell, Tsunoda, Ocon, Hamilton, Perez, Verstappen, Leclerc, Sainz, Bottas, and Gasly. So, betting thoughts. Qualifying is at 9pm and the race tomorrow at 8pm, hence the earlier than usual post. Sainz at 7 each way to top qualifying is tempting, given he edged Leclerc in first practice, and he finished ahead of the Mo...

As always, bets are made with Smarkets unless noted otherwise. EPL Backed Brentford to win at home versus Wolves at 2.26. Wolves’ recent away form is a loss to Crystal Palace, a loss to Chelsea, and a loss to West Ham. Brentford’s most recent home results are drawing with Chelsea, beating Brighton, and losing to Arsenal. Overall, Brentford are a reasonable but not staggering margin ahead of Wolves in the table but the home advantage would appear to make their odds value.   Serie A Backed Atalanta away to beat Empoli either 1-0 or 2-0 at odds of 9 and 10.5 respectively (split one stake evenly). Atalanta should win this and have won four of five away matches with those scores (split evenly). While Empoli do often score at home Atalanta has one of the best defences in the league. Also backed Spezia to win at home versus Fiorentina at 4.5. It’s true Spezia have only won two of five home matches, but in each of their draws (they haven’t lost at home yet) they scored twice. A...

Ligue 1 Backed Lorient to win at home versus Nice at 2.55 (boosted) with Ladbrokes. In their most recent home matches Lorient have won against Lille, drawn against Reims, and beaten Nantes, winning four of five home matches in total. Nantes have drawn away thrice but have yet to win away this season.   Bundesliga I’ve backed Frankfurt to win at home against Borussia Dortmund at 3, with Smarkets. Frankfurt have a pretty solid set of home results lately, whereas, away, Dortmund have lost to Union Berlin, Koln, and Leipzig.   Morris Dancer

After some consistently pretty good results, two rough ones in a row. Hopefully these’ll down to rub of the green rather than persistent or due to a flaw in the way I’m doing things (one new error I did make was ‘safe’ bets at sort odds on top teams versus bottom sides, both of which failed…). As ever, £10 stakes are assumed. EPL: four tips, one win = -£10.4 Serie A: one tip, no wins = -£10 La Liga: one tip, no wins = -£10 Ligue 1: one tip, no wins = -£10 Bundesliga: two tips, no wins = -£20   Total = -£60.4   Morris Dancer

The bet came off in the more minor way, but could’ve easily been fully green. Or, indeed, red. So a modestly good start to the weekend (not a fan of the later start time, though). Q1 saw the traditional departure of Latifi, and both Haas cars also failed to make the grade. Not too surprising these days was the elimination of Ricciardo, whereas Ocon’s failure to progress was more unexpected, especially given the Alpine has been looking good this weekend. Albon put in a good performance and was the fastest eliminated chap in Q2, ahead of Vettel, Gasly, Zhou Guanyu, and Tsunoda. Zhou should’ve made it through but his fastest lap was a tiny bit over the line and so the time got axed. This saved Norris’ bacon. And so to Q3. It had the hallmarks of a classic Verstappen-Leclerc showdown though Sainz was not too far behind. As it happened, both Verstappen and Leclerc could’ve been faster on their finals laps, whereas Sainz nailed it to grab pole. Leclerc was second fastest (but is subjec...

Perez has a five place grid penalty for a new engine. In first practice, Sainz was fastest, two-tenths ahead of Verstappen. Hamilton was a similar margin further back, and then came Stroll, Perez, and Alonso. Russell, Gasly, Norris, and Vettel completed the top 10. Note Leclerc did not drive, his Ferrari was taken by Robert Shwartzman (who was 16 th ). Second practice saw Leclerc put his car fastest, seven-tenths ahead of Bottas. However, this session was a test for 2023 prototype tyres so take times with a boulder of salt. Ricciardo was next, then came Sainz, 1.4s off his team mate (but Leclerc, due to sitting out FP1, had been able to use the 2022 tyres, so it’s meaningless really). Schumacher, Norris, Verstappen, Hamilton, Gasly, and Perez round out the top 10.   So, one of the best qualifiers only set a time in a session when everyone else had totally different tyres, which is not exactly spiffing for trying to work out pace.   In all honesty, I hadn’t expected...

Busy time, so these are coming ahead of the previous results (only EPL done so far, tiny loss).   EPL Just the one bet, on Bournemouth to win away at West Ham at 6.6. They’re similarly placed in the table, and while I do think the Hammers should win the odds are too long. Discounting two losses to top teams, Bournemouth have one away win and two draws (Forest, plus Newcastle/Fulham) and scored away at each of those three matches. West Ham have been pretty solid at home, so should be fairly close.   La Liga Also just one bet: Osasuna to win away at Girona at 2.96. Osasuna have twice the points of Girona, who have won two of five home matches (also losing two). One of those wins was against similarly poor side Getafe. Osasuna’s away form has not been amazing but they’ve also only played top or comparable sides (they did draw away at Real Madrid, and beat Almeria).   Morris Dancer

Serie A Just the one Italian tip, Udinese to win at home versus Torino at 2.06. The home side currently have nearly twice the points of the latter, and have won three of five home matches to date (drawing against other top teams Roma and Atalanta). Torino have lost three of five away matches so far this season, exceptions being against relegation strugglers Cremonese and Monza (who have similar points to Torino).   Bundesliga Oddly, both Bundesliga bets are with Ladbrokes though you may get better odds if you wait a couple of days for Smarkets to get going. At 4.75 I’ve backed Wolfsburg to win away at Bayer Leverkusen. Wolfsburg are ahead in the table and while they’ve only won on away match this year it was against Frankfurt which was quite counterintuitive. At home, Bayer Leverkusen have lost three times out of five. In recent matches, Wolfsburg had a decent home draw versus Borussia Mönchengladbach, drew away at Augsburg, and had a home win over Stuttgart. Bayer Leverk...

Unusually, this is a Ladbrokes bet, boosted to 4. Backed Montpellier to win at home versus Lyon. The two teams are highly similar in the table, and Montpellier have won half their home games. So far, Lyon have drawn away once and lost all their other away matches. I think it’ll be one of those close matches which makes 4 on the home side a shade long. Bit of a mini-post, I’ll try and get Serie A/Bundesliga ideas up tomorrow, time permitting.   Morris Dancer

As ever, results assume £10 stakes per bet. EPL: 3 tips, no wins = -£30 Serie A: no tips La Liga: 3 tips, no wins = -£30 Ligue 1: no tips Bundesliga: 2 tips, one win = +£8.2   Total = -£51.8   Quite the horror show, worst set of results since I started betting at the football beginning of this season. Some misjudgements, a few that were close but you don’t get anything for that. Not to mention the weirdness of red everywhere except the Bundesliga…     Morris Dancer

Full results for the last set should be up tomorrow, but with one result to go things are looking like the worst set of results since I started betting on football at the start of this season. Ouch. EPL Backed Bournemouth to win at home versus Southampton at 2.82. After a torrid start, Bournemouth have done pretty well and Southampton have lost all but one of their five away matches (including losses to Aston Villa and Wolves). Brentford are 5 at home to beat Chelsea, and I decided to back this despite getting bitten by a similar bet last time. Brentford have a pretty good home record and I still think Chelsea don’t travel so well, but we’ll see if this is like my repeated Sevilla woes in La Liga or not. Last but not least, went for Fulham at 2.96 for the home win versus Aston Villa. The visitors have a grand total of no away wins this season, and while Fulham have lost twice at home (from five, with one draw) this was against Liverpool/Newcastle who are above them in the table...

Serie A No tips this round. Ligue 1 No tips this round.   Bundesliga Backed Frankfurt at home to beat Bayer Leverkusen at 2.82. Frankfurt sit above their opposition in the table, have twice as many wins, and Leverkusen have only won once from four away matches so far. Not a gimme or anything, but feels too long. Ahem. I’ve also backed Augsburg to win away (with Ladbrokes/boost) at 5 against Koln. They’re highly similar in terms of performance and home advantage matters perhaps the least in the Bundesliga of the major European leagues. In addition, Augsburg have won three of four away matches, including over Werder Bremen (currently in 5 th ).   Morris Dancer

As always, follow at your own risk, and bets are with Smarkets unless indicated otherwise.   EPL Backed Villa at home to beat Chelsea at 4.6. Chelsea’s away form has been a bit iffy this year, narrowly beating Palace and Everton, but losing badly to Leeds and narrowly to Southampton. Palace, Everton, and Southampton are all at the bottom end of the table, and Villa have been reasonably good at home (a draw against Man City was impressive, though they did lose to West Ham). Backed Manchester United to beat Newcastle at home at 2.04. Pretty simple really, Manchester United have had one defeat, to the current champions, since their awful start and their results have put them in the top five. Newcastle are just a point below them but Man United have a game in hand. Went for Southampton to win at home versus West Ham at 2.98. Losing half their home matches looks bad for Southampton but one was versus Man United and they have beaten Chelsea at home. Away from Home, West Ham hav...

EPL: 2 tips, two wins = +£42.90 Serie A: 2 tips, one win = +£3 La Liga: 1 tip, no wins = -£10 Ligue 1: 2 tips, one win = +£11 Bundesliga: no tips   Total = +£46.90 So, room to improve, as ever, but ahead overall which is always nice. Edited update : made an error reading results and including an old one by mistake. Serie A was actually -£10 , and the overall result was therefore +£33.90 .  Morris Dancer

Bit unlucky with the bet as the only chap to aquaplane off on the very wet initial couple of laps (after which there was a red flag and over two hour delay) was Sainz, but these things do happen. Off the line everyone was on inters, with Gasly starting from the pit lane. Leclerc unusually started well and almost got Verstappen who did well to retain the lead. Ricciardo, Tsunoda, and Stroll made up many places while Norris and Vettel (who, in very bad visibility, accidentally made contact with Alonso and got himself spun around) went backwards. Albon’s car gave up on lap 1 and Sainz got unlucky, aquaplaning and saying hello to the barriers. A part of the hoarding ended up on the front of Gasly’s car and he was not amused. Cue a long wait. On the plus side, I’d cunningly brought a book with me in case of such an eventuality.   When they got going it was on full wets behind the safety car for a couple of laps prior to a rolling start. Immediately Vettel and Latifi took a cha...

News! Gasly is off to Alpine next year, and Nyck de Vries will be joining Tsunoda at AlphaTauri. Might feel a bit miffed if I were Williams. In Q1 there were not too many surprises as both Williams went out, Latifi being slowest making a mockery of his 5 place grid penalty for introducing Zhou Guanyu to the wall in Singapore, but there we are. We also lost Stroll and Magnussen here and Gasly, who was complaining (as was his team mate) very loudly about the state of his brakes. Q2 was very tight indeed, with three drivers from different teams covered by a thousandth of a second at one point. When it all shook out Ricciardo was the fastest departing driver, three-thousandths off Vettel. Bottas, Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu, and Schumacher also left at this stage. Heading into Q3 it was looking like a three horse race between Verstappen and the Ferraris, and so it proved. In the end, all three were covered by six-hundredths, with Verstappen and Leclerc on the front row and Sainz ending up...

The upshot of the Perez safety car investigation was a 5s penalty, so he retains the win. Huzzah! Both of the initial practice sessions in Japan were wet, so the times may not be all that useful if qualifying/the race is dry.  Alonso was fastest in FP1, ahead of Sainz and Leclerc, with Ocon next (so rather good for Alpine). Magnussen, Verstappen, and Schumacher followed, with Norris, Bottas, and Perez rounding out the top 10.  A Mercedes 1-2, Russell fastest, led the way in second practice, with Verstappen and Perez six-tenths further back but within a tenth of each other. Magnussen and Sainz followed, then came Alonso, Bottas, Ocon, and Zhou Guanyu.  Qualifying starts at 7am (and the race at 6pm) hence posting this now. The wet running makes it hard to assess if things dry out, and a high degree of randomness could apply if it does not. So, not bet. The pre-race ramble will probably be up tomorrow afternoon, depending how fast the markets are to wake up.  ...

As ever, bets are with Smarkets unless stated otherwise. EPL I’ve backed Bournemouth at home to beat Leicester at 3.65. Pretty straightforward, Leicester had a stonking 4-0 win over Forest last time out but that’s still their only win from eight attempts and a 75% loss rate. This could still go either way, Bournemouth’s numbers are skewed by facing so many top teams early on and a 9-0 drubbing from Liverpool, but 3.65 for them at home feels too long. Backed Arsenal at 2.64 to beat Liverpool. The latter have had a faltering start and were lucky, via an own goal, not to lose at home last time out to Brighton. Did um and ah about this a bit but Arsenal have been looking good this season and Liverpool have, frankly, not.   Serie A Backed Sassuolo to win at home versus Inter Milan at 4.5. They’re both mid-table, on 12 points apiece, and while Inter (away) has mostly faced top sides they still have a poor record. Sassuolo have won half their home matches, losing against Udine...

Unusually, both these bets are with Ladbrokes (odds noted are with boost). If you intend to bet with Smarkets I’d advocate waiting a day or two for the market to warm up.   Ligue 1 I’ve backed Lorient away to beat Brest at 3.1. Lorient’s a top side with 7 wins from 9 matches to date, and Brest are in the relegation zone with a -10 goal difference and 5/9 losses. Troyes is the second tip, to win away at Nantes at 5.25. Troyes are very much a middling team while Nantes are hovering above the relegation zone thanks to a singe point of goal difference. So far this season Troyes have won 2 of 5 away matches (including over Monaco), while Nantes have won 1 of 4 home matches (a pair of draws as well, to be fair). In short, I think this could go either way but the odds are excessive on Troyes.   Bundesliga No Bundesliga bets this time around.   I’ll cover the other three leagues in the next few days, probably.   Morris Dancer

As ever, results assume £10 stakes per bet.   EPL: 3 tips, no wins = -£30 Serie A: 2 tips, two wins = +£42 La Liga: no tips Ligue 1: 1 tip, one win = +£18.80 Bundesliga: 1 tip, no wins = -£10   Total = +£20.80   Very much a mixed set of results, all good or all bad for any given league. Bit surprised/disappointed the whole EPL set was red as that’s normally my best league, but lucky that was outweighed by Serie A/Ligue 1. Note that the unusual split bet predicting a scoreline for Serie A counted as a single tip, accounting for the loss from the failed half in the overall profits.   Morris Dancer

The last two races had good bets that both failed due to blatant misfortune, which was quite galling. This race saw an awful lot of incident but the bet (probably) come good. However, a slightly odd safety car infringement investigation is occurring post-race so we shall see if the racing gods once again chew up a decent tip. The start was delayed by an hour due to rain, and even then it was inters for everyone. Russell started from the pit lane to take a new engine. Perez started well and nabbed the lead from Leclerc, retaining it for the entire race. Sainz bumped Hamilton off the track to retain the third he’d gained off the line, whereas Verstappen left the handbrake and went tumbling down the order. This began a long race (it went to the 2 hour mark rather than laps) with the Dutchman carving his way at first rapidly then more gradually through the field. There was no DRS for about 60% of the race, with drivers hanging on to worn inters until the track was (eventually) ok for...

It was still wet for qualifying which led to a very entertaining session as the circuit (very slowly) dried. Wet but not raining, inters were the order of the day for Q1. Both Williams failed to progress, but more surprising were the trio of Bottas and (especially) Ricciardo and Ocon.  Q2 saw the departure of both Aston Martins and Zhou Guanyu, al of whom had attempted to get through on the soft tyres. But the shock departure was undoubtedly Russell, on the inter but strangely slow. Schumacher also left at this stage.  Come Q3 most of the drivers opted for softs and while they were initially seconds off Tsunoda’s inter pace this soon reversed. Hamilton was a man come to life, and seemed destined for a serious tilt at pole. Leclerc was also looking very good, and while Verstappen was quick uncharacteristic errors led to him abandoning multiple laps. The last would have got him pole. But the team ordered the baffled Dutchman to box, presumably due to a fuel concern. His ...

The calendar for next year, with a foolish 24 races including a ridiculous three in the USA, has been published: https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.f1-announces-24-race-calendar-for-2023.7oNRaq4kZ2bwTAmL7r6dqg.html Alex Albon is racing despite minor complications during his recent surgery. And, at the time of writing (Saturday morning) the F1 website isn’t showing the practice results, but I recall Hamilton was top of first practice (less than a tenth ahead of Verstappen on a slower tyre) and Sainz was quickest in second practice. Edited: ah they can be seen but it must be via the link on the reports page. Peculiar. Anyway, first practice had Hamilton on soft less than a tenth ahead of Verstappen on the medium tyre. Leclerc was four-tenths off the ultimate pace, and also four-tenths ahead of Perez. Russell, Sainz, Ocon, Stroll, Gasly and Alonso completed the top 10. Second practice was a Ferrari 1-2 with Sainz two-tenths the faster. Russell and Verstappen were a ten...