Abu Dhabi 2025: pre-qualifying
What isn’t irksome is how incredibly close qualifying was, which led to a pretty good grid and the prospect of an intriguing final race, both in itself and for the title.
Q1 said goodbye to some big names, with Hamilton, Albon, Hulkenberg, Gasly, and Colapinto going out. Both Hamilton and Hulkenberg’s team mates made it through to Q3 and the German looked fast enough to escapebut didn’t quite hook things up.
In Q2 Bearman, Sainz, Lawson, Antonelli, and Stroll exited the stage. Bearman and Antonelli were surprises, as the Briton has looked very good lately (including this weekend) and Antonelli is also on a run of good results. Every driver out in Q2 had a time of 1:23:0.
And so to Q3 which I felt had become a probable McLaren duel. Not for the first time this season, I was wrong. Verstappen put in two great laps for pole, and didn’t need the tow he had on the first one (he was faster on the second). Norris ended up two-tenths back, which was a large margin given the tightness of the field.
Piastri lines up 3rd on the grid, a quarter of a tenth behind Norris. But two-tenths ahead of Russell, who ended up 4th. The third row is Leclerc and Alonso, both doing very well to qualify so high up the grid. Bortoleto’s 7th is a tasty result as the season draws to a close, and shows the potential in the Sauber. Ocon has been in the shade of Bearman lately but his 8th is a strong performance. Hadjar and Tsunoda complete the top 10.
Early Betting Thoughts
Piastri, win each wayBearman, points
Hulkenberg, points
Piastri’s third on the grid and in the title race. Norris can settle for third at the flag and Piastri cannot. This makes a Piastri podium less tempting than it might be as he could have to give up a place to advantage Norris if he’s out of it but the Briton can win. He’s also had a (too late) rediscovery of speed and is much likelier, I think, than Norris to try something risky that could pay off at the start or lead to woe. He’s out at 8 to win, each way, which is pretty tempting.
Bearman’s been great in recent races and was looking very good here. Didn’t quite reach his potential in qualifying but was only out by less than a hundredth. However, 1.72 for points is a little bit tight.
Hulkenberg is similar to Bearman except he went out way earlier, and starts 18th. And, unlike Silverstone, there won’t be rain in Abu Dhabi. Points are a tall order but not impossible. His odds are 4.5, which is… kind of ok.
Browsing the Market
For the final time this year, I perused the market to see if any value leapt out at me. Here’s what caught my eye:
Bearman to beat Hamilton, 1.6
Short odds but he starts 5 places higher and has looked faster all weekend, and in the last few races.
So, that’s it. A very short odds bet on Bearman and a fairly long one on Piastri.
I decided to back both. Piastri at 8.5 (boosted) each way for the win and Bearman at 1.62 to beat Hamilton. I think Piastri’s back after a long period of the doldrums, and Bearman had a disappointing qualifying yet still finished five places ahead of the elder Briton. If he survives lap one I think Bearman’s got great potential in the race.
It’s not been a vintage betting year for me, going to probably finish slightly red (unless you count the pre-season Piastri title each way bet of 14 which, while guaranteed green as it pays top three, I don’t). In my defence, I did have some rotten luck. Two bets failed by about half a second, another due to Norris’ only reliability failure in 2-3 years, and a third was correct in terms of prediction but because McLaren got disqualified after the podium the bet counted as red.
But I’m rather looking forward to this race. And to the potential for huge shifts with the massive regulation change for 2026.
If I have time, I’m also going to write (but not record) a final Undercutters ramble looking at how well/abysmally my predictions turned out.
Morris Dancer
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