MorrisF1

So, the sprint bullshit is dispensed with, thankfully. It did provide some useful hints, such as DRS being overpowered (assuming the zone isn’t truncated for the race), the McLarens being pretty tasty (on par with Verstappen for Piastri) and the soft tyres not lasting long at all. Even with a trio of safety car periods, one due to a racing incident and two down to driver errors, the softs didn’t last the sprint and the medium was clearly the better tyre. Early betting thoughts: Piastri, podium Russell, podium Sainz, top 6 Piastri starts 6 th , with both Mercedes, Alonso, and Leclerc ahead of him. Oh, and some chap called Verstappen. On pace, he should’ve been 4 th , but got a time deleted. The sprint showed the McLaren was a tasty beast indeed, and while he lost the lead to Russell early on, he also retook it and then maintained a gap to Verstappen, indicating both that Piastri is comfortable at the circuit and his car is rather swift. He’s 2.6 for a podium, which is slightly shorter ...

  Ah, the sprint bullshit. Almost missed qualifying this weekend (if Friday counts as the weekend). Qualifying was notably for an extremely high degree of track evolution, somewhat comparable to a wet circuit with the proviso it was only ever an improvement (whereas rain can come back and slow down times again). In Q1 we waved goodbye to Sargeant, Lawson, Magnussen, and Zhou Guanyu. And Stroll. The Canadian appeared to push a member of staff shortly after getting out of his car, and during an interview (which I hardly ever pay attention to) he was curt and monotone to a concerning degree. The pressure is very much telling. Q2 was also highly competitive, and throughout the whole of qualifying many lap times were lost due to overstepping the white lines. Perez was the biggest scalp to fall this way, qualifying 13 th , a place behind Sainz. Tsunoda, Hulkenberg, and Albon also departed at this stage. In Q3 it was once again Verstappen who claimed pole, with Norris the closest. Until ...

  EPL I’ve backed Luton to win at home versus Burnley at 3 . They’re both equally bad, and home advantage makes this value, I think. Both teams have lost all but a single draw, though Luton have scored in both their home matches to date and the low overall scoring record of both teams may make that a useful habit. Could go either way, but the odds make it worthwhile, I think. Ligue 1 Backed Le Havre to win at home versus Lille at 4.1 . Both sides are very closely matched, Le Havre have won two of three home games so far, Lille have a loss and two draws on the road to date. Just feel the odds are too long. Serie A I considered this for a while, but have backed Lecce to win at home versus Napoli at 5 . The defending champions aren’t out of it but have had a less than ideal start to their title defence. Both sides are on 11 points, and Lecce have won all their home games. Neither side has been especially tested excepting the 1-0 away loss by Lecce at Juventus....

Worth noting that pole is very important in Japan and winners are rarely off the front row (thrice in three decades). Also, overtaking’s tricky and the track is chewing up tyres. Q1 had the unsurprising spectacle of Sargeant introducing his car to the wall. This brought out a red flag. Hulkenberg’s been very good at qualifying this season but this time out he was out in this session, as were both Alfa Romeos and the lacklustre Stroll. Q2 had a slight shock with Lawson the fastest departing chap. This was a bit unexpected as he was so quick up to this point, but burning an extra set of softs in the first part of qualifying may have cooked his goose. He’s been at this circuit before, and it’s been showing. Both Alpines failed to progress, as did Albon and Magnussen. In Q3 it seemed destined that Verstappen would get pole. And he did. Comfortably. I suspect the race will be a near guaranteed Verstappen win though it could be tasty behind him and if he gets stuck behind a McLaren due to a...

EPL I’ve backed Spurs to win away at Arsenal at 4.9 . The two sides are on identical points and look pretty evenly matched. That being the case, the odds on an away win are a little longer than should be the case. Home advantage is a big deal in the EPL, but Arsenal have shipped points with every home match to date, and Spurs have scored in every away match and won two out of three. A viable alternative is to lay Arsenal for the win at roughly 1.7 or less. La Liga and Serie A Nothing tickled my fancy this round from La Liga and Serie A. Ligue 1 I’ve backed Metz to win at home versus Strasbourg at 3.1 (Ladbrokes) . The two sides are pretty even, Metz has mildly better recent form. That being the case, the odds for a home win are worth backing. Probably 50/50 as to whether that result happens. Also gone for Toulouse to win away at Lens at 5.4 . While high fliers last season, so far (in five games) the home side have achieved a solitary point. Toul...