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Undercutters Episode 38 - Predictions Assessment

Hello, everyone. Welcome to a special, one-off Undercutters episode. No sound this time (just as well, I’ve excitingly developed another, hopefully minor, health problem that would’ve made recording it slightly unpleasant) but I did want to look back at my predictions and see just how wrong I got things. Driver Pairings Pre-season I predicted which of each driver pairing would end up the best in their particular team. My predictions were: Gasly to beat Doohan Alonso to beat Stroll Norris to beat Piastri Leclerc to beat Hamilton Russell to beat Antonelli Verstappen to beat Lawson Tsunoda to beat Hadjar Sainz to beat Albon Bearman to beat Ocon Hulkenberg to beat Bortoleto Whether to count Verstappen or Tsunoda as wins (they were ahead at the time of the Lawson-Tsunoda switch) is debatable, but I’m inclined not to. As for the other predictions, I got Sainz wrong. He took longer than I expected to get up to speed with Williams, although once he did then he did score more than Albon. Oth...
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Abu Dhabi 2025: pre-qualifying

Well, now I wish I’d tipped Russell to top FP3. Ending the season with a couple of good predictions I didn’t tip is a bit irksome. What isn’t irksome is how incredibly close qualifying was, which led to a pretty good grid and the prospect of an intriguing final race, both in itself and for the title. Q1 said goodbye to some big names, with Hamilton, Albon, Hulkenberg, Gasly, and Colapinto going out. Both Hamilton and Hulkenberg’s team mates made it through to Q3 and the German looked fast enough to escapebut didn’t quite hook things up. In Q2 Bearman, Sainz, Lawson, Antonelli, and Stroll exited the stage. Bearman and Antonelli were surprises, as the Briton has looked very good lately (including this weekend) and Antonelli is also on a run of good results. Every driver out in Q2 had a time of 1:23:0. And so to Q3 which I felt had become a probable McLaren duel. Not for the first time this season, I was wrong. Verstappen put in two great laps for pole, and didn’t need the tow he had ...
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Abu Dhabi 2025: pre-qualifying

We had some news between Qatar and now that Tsunoda will be out next year, with Lawson joined by Lindblad at Racing Bulls and Hadjar moving up/down to Red Bull in 2026. Given the second seat has chewed up plenty of good drivers it’s a shame, but not unexpected, to see Tsunoda tossed overboard like this. Quick note: there are three pre-season tests for 2026, the first being in late January, making the off-season unusually short this year. And so the title decider, which, thanks to a combination of disqualifications and sub-optimal strategy still sees Verstappen in with a chance of the title. Norris remains favourite, and Piastri lags them both but could theoretically still win. Gosh. In FP1 Piastri was not running as his car was (long-planned move) taken by Patricio O’Ward, and we had many similar changes in other teams. Norris was fastest, eight-thousandths ahead of Verstappen and 16-thousandths ahead of Leclerc. A tenth back was Antonelli, then Hulkenberg, Russell, Bortoleto, Bearm...
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Qatar 2025: pre-race

And so, with the pretend race and qualifying done, it will soon be time for the penultimate Grand Prix of the year. Norris could sew things up, if he finishes where he starts. In Q1 it was another torrid time for Hamilton.It was also a return to poor form for Tsunoda, who did extremely well in sprint qualifying. The five out were Tsunoda, Ocon, Hamilton, Stroll, and Colapinto. To be fair to Hamilton, the car looked like a dog in Leclerc’s hands too (the Monegasque had a high speed spin but was luckily nowhere near the barriers). Ferrari to have 1 or 2 not classified is a market I’ll be checking. Q2 said goodbye to Hulkenberg, Lawson, Bearman, Bortoleto, and Albon. Once again, Sainz’s fantastic run of form continues, he was four-tenths faster than Albon in this session and reached Q3. Hulkenberg was one-hundredth slower than Leclerc, which is a bit unlucky. At the sharp end it was looking like a McLaren duel, and so it proved. Piastri was the quicker and claimed pole, again, a tenth ...
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Qatar 2025: pre-sprint and qualifying

Incidentally, there’s a 25 lap maximum for stints in Qatar, which means at least two stops due to the 57 laps in the Grand Prix. The 19 lap sprint will be unaffected. This may also affect whether an early (lap 6 or earlier) safety car leads to pit stops or not. The reason is fears over the track chewing up tyres so much they disintegrate. In solitary practice the McLarens were looking good, as was Alonso. Verstappen’s 6th wasn’t great but I was confident he’d bounce back, and seriously considered tipping Piastri (his odds were 7, boosted to 7.5) but ended up not doing so. Come sprint qualifying, more woe for Hamilton. He was out in SQ1, ahead only of the Alpines. Also out were Lawson and Stroll, whose team mate would reach SQ3 (as would Hamilton’s). SQ2 saw the unexpected departure of Hulkenberg as both Saubers formed the meat in a Haas sandwich (Bearman fastest of them). The German had looked very good but failed to hook up a final lap. Out in 11th was Hadjar, due to a lap being de...
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Las Vegas Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

Well, qualifying was less than splendid as I managed to combine oversleeping with not being there to see the chap I thought might get pole go out in Q1. But I did catch Q2 and Q3 live, at least. Las Vegas qualifying also saw the rarest of things, wet tyres actually being used (for Q1 and Q2, it was intermediates for Q3). In Q1 (having caught up), we said goodbye to Albon, Antonelli (who messed up his final lap), Bortoleto, Tsunoda, and Hamilton, who was last and always seemed to be struggling. Kind of shocking to lose both a Mercedes and a Ferrari in Q1 just on pace, but it was full wets and clearly the cars didn’t like it. If the race is dry, there may still be hope for them. Q2 was still wets, except for Stroll who was looking very good then put on inters and discovered it was about 10 minutes too early. Hulkenberg was the fastest man eliminated, right ahead of Stroll. Ocon and Bearman were both out, as was Colapinto, who did nicely to save himself form a trip to the barriers when...
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Las Vegas Grand Prix 2025: pre-qualifying

Due to the hellishly early 4am (UK) start times this weekend, the pre-qualifying and pre-race rambles are both going to be early. First practice had the unexpected top three of Leclerc, Albon, and Tsunoda, who was one place and less than half a tenth ahead of Verstappen. Sainz, Norris, and Hadjar followed, with Piastri, Russell, and Antonelli bringing up the rear of the top 10. While intriguing I suspect these times may be less than representative. Second practice was back to Brazil, with Norris quickest, but under a tenth ahead of Antonelli. Leclerc stayed fast in third, one place ahead of Hulkenberg. Right behind the Hulk were the racing Bulls pair of Hadjar and Lawson, with Russell a little further back. Albon, Verstappen, and Hamilton finished off the upper half of the time sheet. Piastri was 14th. I was a bit surprised Antonelli was out at 9, 9.5 boosted, so I’ve backed him each way for qualifying. He was second quickest and very close behind Norris in FP2 and while the Mercede...
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