Qatar 2025: pre-race
And so, with the pretend race and qualifying done, it will soon be time for the penultimate Grand Prix of the year. Norris could sew things up, if he finishes where he starts.
In Q1 it was another torrid time for Hamilton.It was also a return to poor form for Tsunoda, who did extremely well in sprint qualifying. The five out were Tsunoda, Ocon, Hamilton, Stroll, and Colapinto. To be fair to Hamilton, the car looked like a dog in Leclerc’s hands too (the Monegasque had a high speed spin but was luckily nowhere near the barriers). Ferrari to have 1 or 2 not classified is a market I’ll be checking.
Q2 said goodbye to Hulkenberg, Lawson, Bearman, Bortoleto, and Albon. Once again, Sainz’s fantastic run of form continues, he was four-tenths faster than Albon in this session and reached Q3. Hulkenberg was one-hundredth slower than Leclerc, which is a bit unlucky.
At the sharp end it was looking like a McLaren duel, and so it proved. Piastri was the quicker and claimed pole, again, a tenth ahead of Norris. Verstappen lines up third on the grid, but if he can’t pass the McLarens off the line I think he’s going to be unable to do much. As well as being very, very difficult for on-track passing the circuit has a 25 lap maximum stint for tyres, limiting flexibility. I fear the race may be one of the worst of the season, although probably not as bad as Suzuka/Monaco.
Russell lines up alongside Verstappen on the second row. Antonelli and Hadjar make row three rookie land, with Sainz and Alonso planting the Spanish flag on the fourth row. More good stuff from all four of those. Gasly somehow dragged his dog of a car into 9th, ahead of Leclerc’s miserable Ferrari.
Bortoleto has a five place grid penalty from last time out, when he smashed into Stroll.
As earlier mentioned, I’m not expecting a huge degree of change from grid to flag, with the main exception being the start.
Verstappen, win each way
Hadjar, top 6
Hulkenberg, points
Ferrari are 5 to have 1 or 2 cars not classified. Given the absolute state of their car, gravel strips, and the urgency with which anyone will try to pass (because it’s so difficult here) there’s a reasonable chance of this happening. It’s not amazing value, though.
I think most changes will occur at the start and Verstappen’s got a shot at one or both McLarens. Norris has to be careful, to a degree, as a DNF is the only way that he doesn’t have a massive advantage in the final race. Verstappen’s 6.5 to win, each way, which is… ok. But only ok. The lack of a big braking zone in the first corner means that it’s off the line or nothing.
Hadjar starts 6th and there’s a non-zero chance of Russell’s steering problem worsening and one or more of the title contenders going off-track after a collision. However, Hadjar’s 1.6 to be top 6 which is probably the lowest value of any of the bets I’ve looked at so far. If he has a bad start, he’s doomed.
Similarly, Hulkenberg’s 11th but was pretty much on pace with Leclerc. If he gets ahead, he’ll stay there on pace. He’s also 2.4 for points, which seems relatively generous, as any DNF from those ahead of him, assuming an even start, would be enough. Obviously, bad start ruins this but a great start makes it almost guaranteed.
So, heroically, I’m splitting a single stake between Hulkenberg for points at 2.45 (boosted) and Ferrari to have 1 or 2 cars not classified at 5.25. That’s 60% of the stake on Hulkenberg and 40% on the Ferrari bet.
Let’s hope the race is profitable, and more exciting than I expect.
Morris Dancer
In Q1 it was another torrid time for Hamilton.It was also a return to poor form for Tsunoda, who did extremely well in sprint qualifying. The five out were Tsunoda, Ocon, Hamilton, Stroll, and Colapinto. To be fair to Hamilton, the car looked like a dog in Leclerc’s hands too (the Monegasque had a high speed spin but was luckily nowhere near the barriers). Ferrari to have 1 or 2 not classified is a market I’ll be checking.
Q2 said goodbye to Hulkenberg, Lawson, Bearman, Bortoleto, and Albon. Once again, Sainz’s fantastic run of form continues, he was four-tenths faster than Albon in this session and reached Q3. Hulkenberg was one-hundredth slower than Leclerc, which is a bit unlucky.
At the sharp end it was looking like a McLaren duel, and so it proved. Piastri was the quicker and claimed pole, again, a tenth ahead of Norris. Verstappen lines up third on the grid, but if he can’t pass the McLarens off the line I think he’s going to be unable to do much. As well as being very, very difficult for on-track passing the circuit has a 25 lap maximum stint for tyres, limiting flexibility. I fear the race may be one of the worst of the season, although probably not as bad as Suzuka/Monaco.
Russell lines up alongside Verstappen on the second row. Antonelli and Hadjar make row three rookie land, with Sainz and Alonso planting the Spanish flag on the fourth row. More good stuff from all four of those. Gasly somehow dragged his dog of a car into 9th, ahead of Leclerc’s miserable Ferrari.
Bortoleto has a five place grid penalty from last time out, when he smashed into Stroll.
As earlier mentioned, I’m not expecting a huge degree of change from grid to flag, with the main exception being the start.
Early Betting Thoughts
Ferrari, 1 or 2 cars not classifiedVerstappen, win each way
Hadjar, top 6
Hulkenberg, points
Ferrari are 5 to have 1 or 2 cars not classified. Given the absolute state of their car, gravel strips, and the urgency with which anyone will try to pass (because it’s so difficult here) there’s a reasonable chance of this happening. It’s not amazing value, though.
I think most changes will occur at the start and Verstappen’s got a shot at one or both McLarens. Norris has to be careful, to a degree, as a DNF is the only way that he doesn’t have a massive advantage in the final race. Verstappen’s 6.5 to win, each way, which is… ok. But only ok. The lack of a big braking zone in the first corner means that it’s off the line or nothing.
Hadjar starts 6th and there’s a non-zero chance of Russell’s steering problem worsening and one or more of the title contenders going off-track after a collision. However, Hadjar’s 1.6 to be top 6 which is probably the lowest value of any of the bets I’ve looked at so far. If he has a bad start, he’s doomed.
Similarly, Hulkenberg’s 11th but was pretty much on pace with Leclerc. If he gets ahead, he’ll stay there on pace. He’s also 2.4 for points, which seems relatively generous, as any DNF from those ahead of him, assuming an even start, would be enough. Obviously, bad start ruins this but a great start makes it almost guaranteed.
Browsing the Market
Nothing incredible from my initial thoughts, though I quite like the Ferrari/Hulkenberg bets. So I perused the markets for value… and found nothing. Maybe I’m especially sleepy, but I think it’s because I’m unfortunately expecting the race to be rather a procession. Like Monaco, it’s a race I probably wouldn’t bet on if I didn’t have at least one per race.So, heroically, I’m splitting a single stake between Hulkenberg for points at 2.45 (boosted) and Ferrari to have 1 or 2 cars not classified at 5.25. That’s 60% of the stake on Hulkenberg and 40% on the Ferrari bet.
Let’s hope the race is profitable, and more exciting than I expect.
Morris Dancer
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