Las Vegas Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
Well, qualifying was less than splendid as I managed to combine oversleeping with not being there to see the chap I thought might get pole go out in Q1. But I did catch Q2 and Q3 live, at least.
Las Vegas qualifying also saw the rarest of things, wet tyres actually being used (for Q1 and Q2, it was intermediates for Q3).
In Q1 (having caught up), we said goodbye to Albon, Antonelli (who messed up his final lap), Bortoleto, Tsunoda, and Hamilton, who was last and always seemed to be struggling. Kind of shocking to lose both a Mercedes and a Ferrari in Q1 just on pace, but it was full wets and clearly the cars didn’t like it. If the race is dry, there may still be hope for them.
Q2 was still wets, except for Stroll who was looking very good then put on inters and discovered it was about 10 minutes too early. Hulkenberg was the fastest man eliminated, right ahead of Stroll. Ocon and Bearman were both out, as was Colapinto, who did nicely to save himself form a trip to the barriers when he lost grip.
And so to Q1, and it was looking very hard to call. And yet, Norris and Verstappen conspired for one of the more routine front rows of the season. Sainz was half a tenth behind Verstappen but may well have a grid penalty for impeding Stroll earlier. Russell’s 4th isn’t ideal but if the Mercedes is better in the dry, and if the race is dry, that’s still got a lot of potential, especially as he’ll be bumped up if Sainz gets penalised.
The third row is Piastri and Lawson, and if it finishes as it starts that’ll add 15 points to Norris’ lead and effectively end the title race.
Alonso and Hadjar are row four, with Leclerc and Gasly bringing up the rear.
The race is forecast to be dry throughout, with a reminder that Sainz qualified 3rd but is likely to face a grid penalty. Not certain, but probable.
Bearman, points
Albon, points
With the shift from wet qualifying to a dry race and Mercedes doing so well last year, there’s a reasonable chance that Russell can end up progressing. Especially with a one place promotion possible. He’s 12 each way thanks to the market thinking this is a very probable Verstappen and Norris duel for victory. I’m on the fence about that, but do think Russell’s a credible contender. As with all of these bets, a huge shift in conditions makes it rough calling how things will go. Russell did top FP3 but the track evolution was massive making it difficult to know how indicative that is.
Bearman’s been driving splendidly lately, and if the Haas was more set for dry than wet (a big if, admittedly) then I could see him advancing through the field as those with wet setups drift backwards. He’s 3.25 to rise from 14th to the points, which is a bit so-so.
The Williams has potential around this track and it is a place you can overtake, but Albon’s qualifying was less than stellar. Different conditions for the race, however. Sainz was third in qualifying and Albon third in the tricky FP3. He’s 5.5 to rise from 16th to the points.
And, because of the lack of markets up (as of 12.50pm or so), there was not.
Tempted both by splitting a Bearman/Albon points bet and backing Russell each way… the Mercedes (and driver) was fantastic here last year.
In the end, I backed Russell each way boosted to 13. While a Norris-Verstappen domination is credible the McLaren’s been iffier here in the past and Russell was within half a tenth of Verstappen in qualifying. I’ve also set up a hedge on Betfair at 2.5.
I am aware this might be a case of blinkers, but with the huge change in track conditions and the Mercedes looking good in drier running (Antonelli a few hundredths off Norris inFP2 but Russell’s fast lap being interrupted) this does seem to me to be worth backing.
It’s a little annoying that the early start time means not just a 3.30am (planned) wakeup time but also that the markets aren’t up properly, but there we are.
Morris Dancer
Las Vegas qualifying also saw the rarest of things, wet tyres actually being used (for Q1 and Q2, it was intermediates for Q3).
In Q1 (having caught up), we said goodbye to Albon, Antonelli (who messed up his final lap), Bortoleto, Tsunoda, and Hamilton, who was last and always seemed to be struggling. Kind of shocking to lose both a Mercedes and a Ferrari in Q1 just on pace, but it was full wets and clearly the cars didn’t like it. If the race is dry, there may still be hope for them.
Q2 was still wets, except for Stroll who was looking very good then put on inters and discovered it was about 10 minutes too early. Hulkenberg was the fastest man eliminated, right ahead of Stroll. Ocon and Bearman were both out, as was Colapinto, who did nicely to save himself form a trip to the barriers when he lost grip.
And so to Q1, and it was looking very hard to call. And yet, Norris and Verstappen conspired for one of the more routine front rows of the season. Sainz was half a tenth behind Verstappen but may well have a grid penalty for impeding Stroll earlier. Russell’s 4th isn’t ideal but if the Mercedes is better in the dry, and if the race is dry, that’s still got a lot of potential, especially as he’ll be bumped up if Sainz gets penalised.
The third row is Piastri and Lawson, and if it finishes as it starts that’ll add 15 points to Norris’ lead and effectively end the title race.
Alonso and Hadjar are row four, with Leclerc and Gasly bringing up the rear.
The race is forecast to be dry throughout, with a reminder that Sainz qualified 3rd but is likely to face a grid penalty. Not certain, but probable.
Early Betting Thoughts
Russell, win each wayBearman, points
Albon, points
With the shift from wet qualifying to a dry race and Mercedes doing so well last year, there’s a reasonable chance that Russell can end up progressing. Especially with a one place promotion possible. He’s 12 each way thanks to the market thinking this is a very probable Verstappen and Norris duel for victory. I’m on the fence about that, but do think Russell’s a credible contender. As with all of these bets, a huge shift in conditions makes it rough calling how things will go. Russell did top FP3 but the track evolution was massive making it difficult to know how indicative that is.
Bearman’s been driving splendidly lately, and if the Haas was more set for dry than wet (a big if, admittedly) then I could see him advancing through the field as those with wet setups drift backwards. He’s 3.25 to rise from 14th to the points, which is a bit so-so.
The Williams has potential around this track and it is a place you can overtake, but Albon’s qualifying was less than stellar. Different conditions for the race, however. Sainz was third in qualifying and Albon third in the tricky FP3. He’s 5.5 to rise from 16th to the points.
Browsing the Markets
All of my initial betting thoughts have ok but not outstanding odds so I browsed the markets to see if anything leapt out at me.And, because of the lack of markets up (as of 12.50pm or so), there was not.
Tempted both by splitting a Bearman/Albon points bet and backing Russell each way… the Mercedes (and driver) was fantastic here last year.
In the end, I backed Russell each way boosted to 13. While a Norris-Verstappen domination is credible the McLaren’s been iffier here in the past and Russell was within half a tenth of Verstappen in qualifying. I’ve also set up a hedge on Betfair at 2.5.
I am aware this might be a case of blinkers, but with the huge change in track conditions and the Mercedes looking good in drier running (Antonelli a few hundredths off Norris inFP2 but Russell’s fast lap being interrupted) this does seem to me to be worth backing.
It’s a little annoying that the early start time means not just a 3.30am (planned) wakeup time but also that the markets aren’t up properly, but there we are.
Morris Dancer
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