F1 2025 Ranking the Rookies (Undercutters Ep7 Transcript)

Hello, everyone. Welcome to the 7th Undercutters podcast, hosted by me, Morris. This time we’re going to be looking at ranking the rookie F1 drivers on the grid. For this podcast I’m counting a rookie as anyone with less than a full season under their belt. This means the likes of Lawson, Doohan, and Bearman will all be considered. I’m going to go in reverse order, starting at the bottom and working up to the top.

 

Ranking 00m:30s

Before we get to the ranking it’s useful to remember that the car matters more than the driver in Formula 1, and it’s always tricky predicting how new F1 drivers will do. Even if Antonelli underperforms and Bortoleto is amazing, it’d would be incredible if the Italian scored fewer points because he’s driving for Mercedes whereas Bortoleto is in a Sauber. Broadly speaking, the ranking is going to be based on how many points I expect each new F1 driver to get over the course of the season. There is one exception, and that’s where we’re going to begin: Jack Doohan.

 

Jack Doohan 01m:14s

I’ve placed Doohan as the seventh ranked man on the list. The reason is unfortunate for him: Colapinto. Alpine hired the Argentine fairly late as a reserve driver, and there are very very strong suggestions that Colapinto will become an Alpine race driver perhaps half a dozen races into the season. This is rough on Doohan, who’s finally reached Formula 1, as it effectively ends his career before it’s begun. However, from Alpine’s perspective and based on the limited races that saw Colapinto drive for Williams in 2024 he does look rather good. Doohan’s had a grand total of one race so far, but he did not set the world alight.

Doohan raced in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, qualifying last with a time 1.2s behind Gasly’s best effort in Q3. In the race, he finished 15th, but with three DNFs the only man still racing that he finished ahead of was Kevin Magnussen.

I think it’s near certain Doohan gets replaced early on and will not be in a race seat at the season’s end. Because of this, regardless of whether he scores or not, I’ve put him down in 7th.

It is worth mentioning that Oliver Oakes, the team principal of Alpine, has claimed Doohan will get a ‘fair crack’ as an F1 driver but has also confirmed that signing Colapinto on a multi-year deal gives the team ‘options’ going forward. But here’s the thing: you don’t sign a multi-year deal to be a reserve driver, particularly when multiple other teams would likely be interested in hiring you in the near future. Despite Oakes’ words, I think it’s very likely we’ll see Colapinto driving for Alpine.

Gabriel Bortoleto 03m:20s

Gabriel Bortoleto is in sixth place on my list. This is not a slight on the Brazilian’s ability. As noted in the driver lineup predictions episode, Bortoleto has a great CV so far, winning in Formula 3 and then Formula 2 the very next year. This is something that Leclerc, Russell, and Piastri also achieved and all of those are very highly regarded drivers. If we were putting the new drivers in equal machinery then Bortoleto would be in the top half of these predictions.

Unfortunately for him, the cars are very different and they matter more than the driver. The Sauber last year was absolutely awful, with very slow pit stops to start with and atrocious pace almost all season long. It was the slowest car on the grid by a clear distance. However, there were some faint glimmers of hope towards the end of the year when Zhou Guanyu finally scored some points for the team and the pace deficit was cut significantly.

I still think Sauber will be slowest of all the teams in 2025, although the margin may be tighter than it was for 2024. But Bortoleto is going to face a serious challenge to score any points at all, which is why I’m putting him in 6th place despite thinking he’s probably going to be a promising F1 driver.

Isack Hadjar 04m:46s

We move onto 5th place now, which I think will be Isack Hadjar. The French driver was the runner up in Formula 2 last year, finishing just behind Bortoleto. He’ll be driving for Racing Bulls, alongside Yuki Tsunoda.

It’s worth remembering that Tsunoda beat both his team mates last year handily, which saw the bizarre situation of Ricciardo being thrown overboard and Lawson getting promoted to Red Bull. Because of this, I fully expect Tsunoda to beat Hadjar, which is going to make it difficult for Hadjar to score much because the top four teams are likely to leave only a couple of places available for midfield points at each race weekend.

In addition, Hadjar was brought in last minute. The grid has been flooded with rookies and some of them are more eagerly anticipated, such as Bearman and Antonelli. But the biggest handicap Hadjar faces as an F1 driver is that last season his team lost out badly in the development race. All season long they were outdeveloped by Haas, and, late on, Alpine also overtook them. If this happens again then it may be his best, perhaps only, points scoring opportunities will be early on when he’s still learning the ropes.

Franco Colapinto 06m:06s

In 4th place, middle of the rookies ranking, I’ve put Franco Colapinto. He drove last year for Williams, replacing Logan Sargeant, and has been signed as a reserve driver for Alpine in 2025. However, there’s an avalanche of rumours all pointing to him replacing Doohan perhaps a quarter of the way into the F1 2025 season.

If the rumours are accurate then this means he will only have around three-quarters of the season to score points. He’ll also have very stiff opposition from Pierre Gasly, who is one of the stars of the midfield. However, Colapinto had a good time at Williams. In his first five races he never finished lower than 12th, and he scored twice, including a very solid 8th place in Azerbaijan. Things did go a bit wrong at Brazil, and this was the start of an iffy four races, with 14th in Las Vegas and DNFs at both Qatar and Abu Dhabi. This loss of form explains why Colapinto was not picked up by any of the other teams seriously considering him for a race seat in 2025. But the pace is there, as we saw in his first five races, and he immediately looked like he was giving Albon something to think about.

Doohan’s only had a single race so far, to Colapinto’s nine, but if you were to compare the two then the conclusion I think anyone must reach is that the Argentine looks faster.

I’ve put Colapinto above Hadjar despite having fewer races in which to score, and a stronger team mate, because last season Alpine finished in great shape. While the 2024 car was mostly awful the late development saw it rocket up the pecking order. In addition, Colapinto has more experience as an F1 driver than Hadjar. Put all that together and I think Hadjar in 5th and Colapinto in 4th makes sense.

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Oliver Bearman 08m:11s

Oliver Bearman is another relative newcomer who has a few Grands Prix under his belt. Last season he was the substitute driver for Ferrari in Saudi Arabia and for Haas in Azerbaijan and Brazil. He scored in Saudi Arabia, finishing 7th, ahead of Lando Norris and around a pit stop behind Leclerc. Given how good the Monegasque driver is, this was a top notch result for Bearman. For Haas, he scored a point at Azerbaijan, where he beat Hulkenberg by 0.3s. Given how good a season Hulkenberg had last year, this was another stellar performance. Bearman only managed 12th in Brazil, but it was his first time driving in such heavy rain.

Haas were anticipated to be atrocious following testing in 2024, then surprised everyone by being pretty good to start with and outdeveloping RB over the course of the year. They ended the season vying with Alpine and Alonso to be best of the rest.

But unlike Hadjar and Colapinto, I predicted Bearman will beat his team mate. It’ll be close, but I think his performances to date point to this being a tighter contest than many on the grid. In addition, Bearman should have all the races in which to score, which gives him an edge over Colapinto. He’ll also be able to get up to speed with testing and the early races. So I think Bearman will finish 3rd of the rookies, and top of those outside the top teams.

Liam Lawson 09m:59s

Liam Lawson has been a substitute driver in two previous seasons, with six Grands Prix in 2024 and five in 2023. In 2023, Lawson was brought in as a sudden replacement for the injured Daniel Ricciardo, and was quick right off the bat. He did only score once that year but had a pair of 11th place finishes. In 2024, Lawson again replaced Ricciardo, and scored twice. He was subjected to a qualifying whitewash by Tsunoda in 2024, as well as the Japanese driver scoring twice as many points.

Despite this, Red Bull opted to promote Lawson over Tsunoda. Driving for Red Bull means podium finishes are on the table, and even a race win could be possible. But driving as Max Verstappen’s team mate makes it highly likely Lawson will be beaten heavily in the internal battle. If a driver can’t beat Tsunoda, it would take a miracle to beat Verstappen.

Lawson’s fast and full of confidence, so perhaps he’ll be able to avoid the fates of Gasly, Albon, and Perez. But it’s worth remembering those are all very good drivers. I think the car will give him plenty of points finishes, but this is likely to be a lopsided team and I expect Lawson to finish towards the bottom of the drivers in top teams. He should comfortably score more than the midfield rookies, but I don’t think he’ll be top dog. And so I’ve put him in 2nd for the ranking of the rookies.

Kimi Antonelli 11m:38s

Which means that Kimi Antonelli, the new team mate for George Russell at Mercedes, is my prediction to be 1st among the rookies in 2025. There’s huge belief in Antonelli at Mercedes, who had a firm eye on him to the extent they didn’t want to give Hamilton a longer contract. Hamilton’s surprise departure to Ferrari does mean the young Italian is joining Mercedes at least a year earlier than the team had planned.

Antonelli had a couple of practice sessions in 2024. His first, at Monza, saw him be very fast and then very slow when he hit the barriers and brought out a red flag. His second attempt, at Mexico, was more straightforward.

While Russell is a tough customer to have as a first team mate, I think Antonelli will stand a better chance of doing well against him than Lawson will against Verstappen. I do expect Russell to finish ahead, though. Mercedes seemed to finally fix their development problems in 2024, which appear to have been caused by wind tunnel data not translating well into the real world. They ended the F1 2024 season in good shape and had multiple 1-2 finishes during it, so I don’t see any reason why they won’t remain competitive and develop well this year.

In addition, the team sees Antonelli as a serious future contender and will be way more committed to ensuring he does well than Red Bull will be with Lawson. Because of all these reasons I fully expect Antonelli to be the highest scoring rookie F1 driver of the year.

Summary of Ranking the Rookies 13m:26s

To sum up, the order, from 7th to 1st, is Doohan, Bortoleto, Hadjar, Colapinto, Bearman, Lawson, and Antonelli. I’m very confident that Doohan will be shipped out, Bortoleto will be the lowest of the remaining drivers as far as points (because his Sauber will likely be slow), and Antonelli and Lawson will finish 1st and 2nd.

I think Hadjar, Colapinto, and Bearman are more difficult to call. They’ll struggle to score as often as Antonelli and Lawson, so a lot of their potential points will be down to how they fare versus team mates and how well their teams develop over the course of the year. Colapinto will also have the problem of not driving for the first part of the season. There’s also a rumour that Colapinto has a surprisingly long contract with Alpine. Obviously if that’s true then he’s got to be in a race seat sooner rater than later.

F1 News 14m:33s

F1 news.

Since the last podcast there has been some F1 news, and it’s not the good type. Mohammed Ben Sulayem, often known as MBS, is the FIA president and not a chap who likes winning friends with easy charm. Instead, he’s taken a rather dictatorial approach towards his role as president, and we saw this last year with punishments for swearing. These felt arbitrary, draconian, and inconsistent, and there was a desire for things to be clearer.

In response to this, MBS has led the FIA to more clearly lay out punishments for the heinous crime of swearing. While this is more transparent and consistent, it also feels very over the top. If a driver swears three times then they will be subject to a one month suspension and loss of their championship points.

This is ridiculously excessive. Not only that, but the measure was rushed through in January, when Hamilton drove for Ferrari for the first time (and thus got all the media limelight). There was also no consultation with the GPDA, the Grand Prix Drivers’ Association, who are sure to oppose this, although the specific means of that isn’t clear right now. Apparently many in the FIA also oppose this.

But there’s worse.

The new code doesn’t just make swearing absolutely forbidden, it also bans insulting or criticising the FIA. So if a driver calls MBS a nincompoop three times he could forfeit all his points.

It’s far too heavy-handed and censorious.

The penalty for a first offence is a fine of €40,000, while a second offence has a fine of €80,000 and a suspended one month suspension. To clarify, that’s really just a fine, as a suspended sentence isn’t actually carried out. But for a third offence, the fine rises to €120,000 and the driver in question will be suspended for a month, and lose their championship points.

There are ways that the GPDA can react to this. Drivers might all just swear their heads off and challenge the FIA to ban them all. That’s a nuclear option and I don’t think we’ll see it. More likely is drivers attending press conferences and giving ‘no comment’ style answers to everything, plus a formal protest that this measure is utter nonsense.

It’s a great shame that one of the most eagerly anticipated seasons for years has had the shine taken off already by MBS being a delicate little flower who cannot stand any criticism or not getting his own way, while at the same time being an authoritarian oaf who has to try and ram through a measure like this to force drivers to act in a way he likes.

Thankfully I’m not subject to the FIA or I would’ve just earned myself a hefty fine for suggesting MBS is a nincompoop.

Can F1 leave FIA regulation and just run things themselves? Well, technically, yes. But it’s hugely complicated which is why such a step has not been taken or even seriously considered. The arbitrary and authoritarian measures that began last year have only become worse with this recent piece of news, and if things continue like this then the question of “Can F1 break away from FIA authority?” might start being asked seriously. For the immediate future, this is not going to happen.

This podcast episode has been a little shorter than most, but the next one will probably be on the long side. After weighing up whether to make a predictions episode before or after testing, I’ve decided to do it beforehand. This will cover the basics such as who will win the titles, but also some other predictions that you might not expect. So for answers to 2025’s questions about F1 - can Lando win a first F1 drivers’ title, which team mates will have the biggest points gap, which midfield team will be the best of the rest, tune in to episode 8, before testing starts on the 26th of February.

As always, if you want to get in touch you can find me on Twitter at MorrisF1, or leave a comment at the morrisf1.blogspot.com website.

Thank you so much for listening.



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