F1 2025 Canadian Grand Prix Preview (Undercutters Ep24 transcript)

Hello, everyone. This is the 24th Undercutters podcast, looking ahead to the Canadian Grand Prix. I’ve got to admit, this is one of my favourite tracks on the calendar, partly because of the amazing race in 2011. As always, if you want to get in touch you can find me on Twitter or Blue Sky as MorrisF1, or at the morrisf1.blogspot.com website.

Will Piastri continue extending his lead over Norris? Will Williams bounce back after a rare pointless weekend? And will Verstappen keep his cool this time?

 

Quick Look at the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve 00m40s

The Canadian Grand Prix takes place at the Circuit Gilles-Villeneueve, a short circuit of 5.36km which means we get 70 laps in the race. There are three DRS zones, two of which are in sector 3 (the latter drifts into the start of sector 1) and share a detection point. The other zone is in sector 2. Sector 3 is prime passing territory, with a hairpin at turn 10, and the following straight also having decent potential for getting ahead. The two straights are only separated by a little kink of two corners but it’s easy to slam into the wall.

The last race was Spain, where the corners were long and this was pretty awful for Williams. But Canada is more about straight lines and much shorter corners so they should do a lot better here.

Rain can also be a significant factor, as in the fantastic 2011 race which saw Button go from last of those running about 40 laps in to finish in 1st.

Pirelli’s data from 2024 indicates the track is one of extremes, with very low grip, abrasion, lateral force, and downforce, and very high traction, braking, and track evolution. Tyre stress is the only middle of the road factor. Mercedes will certainly be hoping it doesn’t chew up its tyres, and temperatures may be rather cooler than Spain or Monaco. 

From pole to the first corner is 186m, way less than in Spain so there’s less chance of getting a huge leap forward or losing out. For a 2.5s stop the 2024 figure for lost time in the pits was 18.35s. And the safety car may well make an appearance alongside potential rain.

 

The Last Canadian Grand Prix 2m40s

The last race in Canada had a front row of Russell and Verstappen, followed by Norris and Piastri, with Ricciardo and Alonso behind them. Qualifying had changeable weather conditions, which explains why some of the grid was a little unusual.

Before the wet start almost everyone was on inters, though Haas had Magnussen and Hulkenberg on full wets.

Ricciardo went backwards off the line and the Haas drivers were flying on the wet tyre, especially when more rain arrived. Sadly for Magnussen this was largely undone by his pit crew not being ready when the weather eased. At the sharp end, Russell retained the lead but Verstappen was getting very close to DRS range, with Norris and Piastri around 6s and 12s further back. However, Verstappen went off-track and Norris was soon able to get past. A lap later Norris took the lead from Russell. When Russell went off track Verstappen was able to get past and reclaim 2nd.

At this stage the inters were barely holding on as the track dried but more rain was forecast so nobody wanted to pit.

On lap 34 Sargeant spun and brought out the safety car, with dire timing for Norris. He had built up a 10s gap but was past the pit entry, while those behind him (Verstappen, Russell, Piastri, Alonso and Hamilton, and most of the rest of the field) boxed for fresh inters.

Norris had to do another lap and when he emerged he was down in 3rd. Meanwhile, Ferrari, doing a very Ferrari strategy, put Leclerc on dry tyres. He had engine troubles and rain was forecast. It did not seem a smart move at the time and he had to pit very shortly thereafter for inters when the rain duly arrived.

Norris was still in 3rd but looked faster than Verstappen and Russell. Until he locked up and lost a bundle of time. Gasly started a series of pit stops for slicks, but Norris stayed out a little longer and was still quick on his inters. He emerged barely behind Verstappen, but had to settle for 2nd in the end, with Russell in 3rd.

Sainz, Albon, and Perez fell prey to the tricky conditions and ended up DNFing. The Sainz-Albon incident brought out a late safety car. It was a particular shame for Albon, who had pulled off one of the best passes of the season, a double overtake just before the Wall of Champions.

Hamilton was 4th, ahead of Piastri, Alonso, and Stroll. Ricciardo, Gasly, and Ocon completed the points positions.

 

How the season looks going into the F1 2025 Canadian Grand Prix 5m16s

Both Piastri and Norris have a string of good results. Piastri hasn’t been off the podium this year with the exception of the first race in Australia, while Norris has been top 2 in the last four races. This means Piastri is ahead of Norris by 10 points, and Verstappen is 49 points off the lead right now. The advantage McLaren has is that its drivers are 1-2 in the title race, and each of them has more points than Ferrari, who are 2nd in the Constructors. I think if Norris can keep his head together this will be very close, but if he can’t then Piastri will just walk away with it. Things might change but I think Verstappen is probably out of this title fight.

After a slightly slow start to the season Ferrari have been pretty good recently, with back-to-back podium finishes for Leclerc. In the last three races they’ve scored 71 points compared to just 18 for Mercedes and 39 for Red Bull. However, it would take something of a miracle for them to catch McLaren.

We have a fairly settled situation at the top, with McLaren dominant, Williams in 5th by themselves and Ferrari, Mercedes, and Red Bull close to one another in between. The bottom five are a bit more turbulent, and the result in Spain put Racing Bulls on 28 points, ahead of Haas on 26. It also meant that Sauber and Aston Martin are tied on 16, with Sauber ahead due to Hulkenberg’s best finish being 5th. Alpine scored but their 11 points still puts them last.

The Spanish Grand Prix had a very dramatic end with three results being unusual. These were Verstappen, Hulkenberg, and Williams. Verstappen had the pace for the podium, got unlucky with the safety car, and the wrong strategy call infuriated him. The team then compounded the failure of putting him onto hard tyres and leaving him a sitting duck for Leclerc by unnecessarily ordering him to concede a place to Russell. The stewards had no intention of giving him a penalty, so the concession was a mistake. Worse still, Russell is perhaps the driver Verstappen likes least, and this saw him deliberately hit Russell before letting him past. This was infantile and cost him a bundle of places and points. However, the 10s penalty the stewards gave was equally pathetic. In Monaco this year Russell got a drive-through penalty for deliberately cutting a chicane, and years ago, at much slower speed, Vettel got a drive-through for banging wheels with Hamilton in Baku. For Verstappen to get a 10s penalty is absolutely not enough because it’s the same kind of penalty you get for accidentally colliding. The only debate is whether it should’ve been a drive-through or black flag.

Either way, the loss of cool caused a huge loss of points that Verstappen cannot afford. Piastri is on eight podium finishes in a row, and Norris has been 1st or 2nd in the last four races. With his title retention hopes slender already, Verstappen throwing away points in a tantrum was not smart, as well as not being sportsmanlike. It also means he’s on 11 penalty points so if he gets more in Canada that will hit the threshold of 12 needed for an automatic 1 race ban.

On a happier note, Hulkenberg had an amazing 5th place finish. Given his car’s the worst on the grid this does require some explaining. To be fair, the car has been upgraded somewhat and it looks like the new parts are working nicely. He also had an amazing start which catapulted him up the order. Incidentally, I need to make a minor correction to last podcast: I said Hulkenberg started 16th. While he qualified there he actually started 15th due to Stroll’s absence. Anyway, the Sauber driver made up about five places on the first lap and drove well throughout the race. Going out in Q1 also meant he had new soft tyres and these helped him get ahead of Hamilton when the safety car came in. So it was a happy mix of upgrades working, Hulkenberg performing well, and the safety car and fresh soft tyre combination at the end which saw him achieve a great result. He may well score at more races this season but his car is still towards the back.

At the other end of the scale, we have Williams, who recorded a rare pointless race. Both drivers had a scruffy race with front wing damage on lap 1, something Albon had again later on, before retiring. General pace was lacking, seemingly due to the long corners that require prolonged braking and turning simultaneously. I do wonder if this will affect them somewhat in Hungary, but we’ll find out in August. However, I expect them to be scoring in Canada and at most race weekends this year.

 

Predictions for the Canadian Grand Prix 10m21s

Predictions for Canada start with pole for Piastri. He’s been qualifying very well all year, only Verstappen’s been more impressive, and the Aussie has a better car. I think he’ll convert this into a win, with Norris in 2nd place. Third is a little trickier, and I’ve gone for Verstappen. If we get some wet weather I think that’ll help him a lot. In the dry, Leclerc might challenge.

Midfield points will see Williams return to scoring, and I’ve backed Sainz to score. He had four weekends of scoring in a row until Spain, and I think he’ll return to that in Canada. The straights in sector three should be very nice for the Williams. My second midfield points driver is Hadjar. He’s been solid all year and I expect this to continue. Some say he’s the best performing rookie on the grid, and they might be right.

For my extra prediction, and this might be an overreaction to the last race, but I’m backing both Saubers to escape Q1. They had the pace to do it in Spain and both Hulkenberg and Bortoleto are good drivers.

F1 News 11m33s

F1 news.

Stroll missed the Spanish Grand Prix and there are plenty of rumours going around about why exactly this happened. All we have confirmed is that he has an injury in his hand, and plans to race in Canada, although Aston Martin may need a stand-in. This could be their long term reserve driver Felipe Drugovich, Mercedes’ reserve driver Valtteri Bottas, or even ex-driver Sebastian Vettel. The fact Stroll has been confirmed by the team to have been ‘upset’ after qualifying has led to speculation he whacked something and hurt his hand that way. It’s a little odd given he’s actually been doing ok this year and hasn’t been flattened by Alonso (who has had abysmal luck).

Speaking of Valtteri Bottas, the Finn’s been talking to the Beyond the Grid podcast, and it’s pretty clear he’s hoping to return with Cadillac when they join the grid next year. He’s one of the two veterans most commonly mentioned for the new team’s driver lineup, with Perez being the other. The Mexican’s stock has risen a lot recently, with how poorly the second drivers for Red Bull are performing emphasising just how difficult the car is. If Bottas can get the Aston Martin seat for a little while it would be a golden opportunity to improve his chances of landing a permanent drive at Cadillac.

Personally, I suspect Perez will get the gig, with a decent chance that IndyCar driver Colton Herta will be in the other seat. As we saw with Sauber, who are becoming Audi next year, the pairing of an experienced driver with a newcomer offers both knowledgeable feedback and a long term prospect. We’ll see which way Cadillac end up going soon enough.

Thank you for listening. If you enjoy this podcast then please do give a positive rating wherever you listen, and tell anyone you know who might like it to check out the Undercutters podcast. More positive ratings makes it easier for listeners to find me, and that makes it likelier I’ll continue this into the future.

Not long to go until Canada, so let’s hope it lives up to some of the classics of the past.




Podbean

Apple

Spotify

Amazon