Canada 2026: pre-race
While I still dislike sprints immensely this was one of the better ones.
It seemed the Mercedes were destined to drive away from the field, but whether it was the squabbling, tyre wear, or something else, they ended up being caught by Norris who had their pace if not better. Antonelli clearly looked quicker than Russell but couldn’t get past and when the Briton introduced the Italian to the side of the track the youngster lost his cool, ranted on the radio, locked up, and lost out to Norris. One suspects their garage will not be entirely harmonious. All three were very close together.
A little way further back, the next three were also very tight. Hamilton seemed set for 4th but ended up very narrowly losing out to Piastri and Leclerc (who finished 0.1s behind the Aussie). In the corners the Ferrari’s very good but it lacks straight line grunt. If it rains, this might mean a relative pace advantage for the Prancing Horse, but they’ll also have to survive Ferrari strategy.
Verstappen was next down the road but never in the running for much better, and Lindblad had a great first encounter with Canada to score the final point. Colapinto’s 9th and Sainz’s 10th were both tasty results but no cigar for the shorter event.
Come qualifying it wasn’t a shock to see the Aston Martin’s and Cadillacs out, nor Ocon and Albon. Sainz was good in the sprint but neither the Haas nor Williams has looked fantastic (Racing Bulls seem the better midfield car right now).
In Q2 Hulkenberg was the fastest man eliminated, yet again, ahead of Lawson, Bortoleto, Gasly, Sainz, and Bearman. Once again, Colapinto beat his very talented team mate. Happy days for the Argentine, it seems.
Q3 looked like it might be super close but, once again, Russell claimed Canadian pole, a tenth ahead of Antonelli. Norris and Piastri again form up on the second row, with Hamilton also repeating his slot from the sprint in 5th. Verstappen and Hadjar followed, with Leclerc only managing 8th and sounding less than happy on the radio. Lindblad and Colapinto on row five seems fitting, the two of them have been doing rather well so far this weekend.
The weather forecast is tricky. There’s a very high chance of light rain, which means somewhere between no effect at all and the race being run entirely on inters. If it is wet, this may advantage Ferrari, especially Hamilton, as he’s been very quick in the corners with better downforce than others but too slow on the straights.
Colapinto points
Lindblad points
Norris/Hamilton podium
Both the Colapinto and Lindblad bets are essentially backing them to continue their strong weekends. They have odds of 1.9 and 1.75 respectively, which I’m not inclined to back, largely due to the threat of rain. Lindblad’s a bit untested (and we haven’t seen at all how these new battery-mobiles will handle the wet stuff) and Colapinto’s had some precipitation nightmares in the past.
I think Norris might also do well if it’s rainy, as could Hamilton. The Norris podium odds of 1.66 are ok but far from outstanding. Hamilton’s out at 3.5, same as Verstappen, which could be value if rain affects things to a significant extent. Rather appealing, actually.
Hamilton or Verstappen, win group 1, 8/9
I’d almost forgotten that Verstappen chap’s not bad in the wet either. Group 1 is the McLarens, Hamilton, and Verstappen (and Leclerc, out at 17, and not a fan of Canada). Norris is just under evens, Piastri at 3.25, and rightly so, if it stays mostly dry. But if not, then Hamilton in particular but maybe also Verstappen could be value.
Winner without Russell, Norris 3.5.
Norris is looking pretty good this year, when his car works. And he’s handy in the wet, and was much on pace with the Mercs in the sprint.
Over 2.5 leaders, 1.57
Ok, the odds are rubbish and, for once, the sprint pole chap held onto the lead. But Canada often has two stops, and the weather could mean even more. So still might be worth backing.
Norris, win each way, 7
Norris looked on it in the sprint and I think he’s better in the wet than Russell, if it comes to that. Chance of start line advantage too. He’s also got straight win odds of 8.6 on Betfair.
So, nothing that really grabs me but a few things that are pretty interesting.
In the end, I backed Norris to win each way at 7.
Morris
It seemed the Mercedes were destined to drive away from the field, but whether it was the squabbling, tyre wear, or something else, they ended up being caught by Norris who had their pace if not better. Antonelli clearly looked quicker than Russell but couldn’t get past and when the Briton introduced the Italian to the side of the track the youngster lost his cool, ranted on the radio, locked up, and lost out to Norris. One suspects their garage will not be entirely harmonious. All three were very close together.
A little way further back, the next three were also very tight. Hamilton seemed set for 4th but ended up very narrowly losing out to Piastri and Leclerc (who finished 0.1s behind the Aussie). In the corners the Ferrari’s very good but it lacks straight line grunt. If it rains, this might mean a relative pace advantage for the Prancing Horse, but they’ll also have to survive Ferrari strategy.
Verstappen was next down the road but never in the running for much better, and Lindblad had a great first encounter with Canada to score the final point. Colapinto’s 9th and Sainz’s 10th were both tasty results but no cigar for the shorter event.
Come qualifying it wasn’t a shock to see the Aston Martin’s and Cadillacs out, nor Ocon and Albon. Sainz was good in the sprint but neither the Haas nor Williams has looked fantastic (Racing Bulls seem the better midfield car right now).
In Q2 Hulkenberg was the fastest man eliminated, yet again, ahead of Lawson, Bortoleto, Gasly, Sainz, and Bearman. Once again, Colapinto beat his very talented team mate. Happy days for the Argentine, it seems.
Q3 looked like it might be super close but, once again, Russell claimed Canadian pole, a tenth ahead of Antonelli. Norris and Piastri again form up on the second row, with Hamilton also repeating his slot from the sprint in 5th. Verstappen and Hadjar followed, with Leclerc only managing 8th and sounding less than happy on the radio. Lindblad and Colapinto on row five seems fitting, the two of them have been doing rather well so far this weekend.
The weather forecast is tricky. There’s a very high chance of light rain, which means somewhere between no effect at all and the race being run entirely on inters. If it is wet, this may advantage Ferrari, especially Hamilton, as he’s been very quick in the corners with better downforce than others but too slow on the straights.
Early Betting Thoughts
Colapinto pointsLindblad points
Norris/Hamilton podium
Both the Colapinto and Lindblad bets are essentially backing them to continue their strong weekends. They have odds of 1.9 and 1.75 respectively, which I’m not inclined to back, largely due to the threat of rain. Lindblad’s a bit untested (and we haven’t seen at all how these new battery-mobiles will handle the wet stuff) and Colapinto’s had some precipitation nightmares in the past.
I think Norris might also do well if it’s rainy, as could Hamilton. The Norris podium odds of 1.66 are ok but far from outstanding. Hamilton’s out at 3.5, same as Verstappen, which could be value if rain affects things to a significant extent. Rather appealing, actually.
Browsing the Markets
In accordance with Leo VI’s Taktika, I think perused the markets more generally.Hamilton or Verstappen, win group 1, 8/9
I’d almost forgotten that Verstappen chap’s not bad in the wet either. Group 1 is the McLarens, Hamilton, and Verstappen (and Leclerc, out at 17, and not a fan of Canada). Norris is just under evens, Piastri at 3.25, and rightly so, if it stays mostly dry. But if not, then Hamilton in particular but maybe also Verstappen could be value.
Winner without Russell, Norris 3.5.
Norris is looking pretty good this year, when his car works. And he’s handy in the wet, and was much on pace with the Mercs in the sprint.
Over 2.5 leaders, 1.57
Ok, the odds are rubbish and, for once, the sprint pole chap held onto the lead. But Canada often has two stops, and the weather could mean even more. So still might be worth backing.
Norris, win each way, 7
Norris looked on it in the sprint and I think he’s better in the wet than Russell, if it comes to that. Chance of start line advantage too. He’s also got straight win odds of 8.6 on Betfair.
So, nothing that really grabs me but a few things that are pretty interesting.
In the end, I backed Norris to win each way at 7.
Morris
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