Miami 2026: pre-race

Well, I was very tired yesterday which did mostly make the sprint easier to watch. Might just be the circuit but it seems the current, updated, regulations have made overtaking much trickier. Not impossible, though, the Mercs had a tussle, and so did Hamilton and Verstappen. But dirty air seemed to cause Leclerc, who looked fast, problems whenever he got too close to Piastri.

Rain is possible for the race which might be brought forward, which is one reason I’m posting this sooner rather than later. Update: the race is now starting 3 hours earlier than initially planned, at 6pm UK time.

Anyway, in qualifying we had Bortoleto struggle to get out on time and then his rear brakes turn into a barbecue, which unfortuately meant he ended up last. The Aston Martins and Cadillacs also went in Q1, with Lindblad fastest of the men eliminated (the Racing Bull has looked weak this weekend).

In Q2, Hulkenberg and Lawson were the fastest men to leave the stage, with Bearman, Sainz, Ocon, and Albon going too. This also meant Alpine continued their strong form and became the fifth team to have two cars in Q3.

Red Bull had looked faster and this continued into the final part of qualifying. But it was Antonelli who, once again, stole the qualifying show and got himself yet another pole. But he does need to sort his starts out, especially with passing looking tougher than it has in earlier races.

Verstappen ended up second but given his car looked midfield last race weekend I think he’ll be pretty happy. Leclec and Norris made up row three, the Briton slipping from his dominance of the sprint, but the four different teams in the top four slots is rather good for a neutral like me.

Russell and Hamilton get reacquainted on row three, with Piastri looking off the pace in qualifying and having to make do with seventh on the grid. He starts alongside Colapinto, who had a very good qualifying to beat not only Gasly but also Hadjar.

Hadjar and Gasly complete the top 10.

 

Excitingly, at the time of writing, there are still thunder showers forecast as possible for the race even at its new (local) time of 1pm. But the chances are lower. Also, note that I’m writing this before the grid is formally confirmed so there is a chance of a late penalty.

Early Betting Thoughts

One or both Audis not to finish

Verstappen, win

Leclerc, win

Norris, win

Over 2.5 race leaders


The Audi situation is not based on driver skill, as I rate both Hulkenberg and Bortoleto highly. Their car is pretty good, when it works, but both have had engine troubles this weekend (Hulkenberg missing the sprint, Bortoleto barely able to put together a lap in qualifying) and the chance of rain only adds another potential problem. However, 1.6 is pretty tight.

I’m going to discuss the win bets for Verstappen, Leclerc, and Norris all together. Antonelli had another bad start in the sprint and if he repeats that then Verstappen benefits by default. Even if he doesn’t, the Ferraris and McLarens are capable of very quick starts and with passing perhaps rather difficult this could be the key change of the race. The downside is that if it’s sufficiently wet then we could, though it’s unlikely, end up with a safety car start.The odds, via Ladbrokes, are 3 for Verstappen, 6 for Leclerc, 9 for Norris. I think perhaps Verstappen/Leclerc offer the best value, perhaps Leclerc each way, third the odds top 2, being most appealing.

Race start overtakes, undercutting, and the chance of changing for inters means there’s a pretty high chance, I think, of multiple race leaders. The odds are 1.33. Which is a bit rubbish… but might still be value.

Browsing the Market

In accordance with the writing’s of Leo VI’s Taktika, I then browsed the market, sleepily looking for value. But that was delayed, as, despite eight hours between qualifying and the 6.24am attempt to search, Ladbrokes had only the main markets up.

A mere five or so hours later, enough was up to peruse…



Colapinto to beat Gasly, 2.2

I think Gasly’s a great driver, but for most of the weekend Colapinto has looked the faster man. That said, his French team mate did have the edge in the sprint and in wet weather Colapinto’s looked shaky in the past.

Red Bull, double points, 2.25

If they don’t suffer engine woe, then raw pace suggests this should come off. But the risk of rain is a serious potential spanner in the works, especially for a bet that requires two things to come off.

Norris, podium, 2.1

Norris had a very good day yesterday and he tends to be good in the wet. He’s also less likely to face a ‘Ferrari’ strategy that could hamper Leclerc.



I would’ve preferred to wait for the group markets to show up, as nothing’s grabbed me so far, but time is pressing.

Hard to call but I’ve gone for Leclerc each way at 6. 


Remember, the race starts earlier than planned, 6pm UK time.



Morris