Japan 2026: pre-race

Glad I didn’t tip the McLaren bet as it came close but didn’t quite work out.

In Q1 we said goodbye to most of the regulars, with the Aston Martins slowest, Cadillac in the middle, and Albon seventeenth. The outlier was Bearman, who made an error in a couple of corners and the field’s tight enough that saw him qualify eighteenth. First weak spot of his 2026 season and he’ll be hoping passing’s easier than last year.

In Q2 every single driver was from a different team. Verstappen was struggling with his car and went out as fastest eliminated driver, just ahead of Ocon. Hulkenberg had the pace to escape but an error consigned him to thirteenth. Then came Lawson, Colapinto, and Sainz.

Q3 came around and Russell had been looking a step behind Antonelli. And so it proved, with the Italian following his maiden victory with a pole position, Russell alongside him. On row two, McLaren bounced back with Piastri (let’s hope he actually gets to race this time). Leclerc had the pace to make the front row, maybe even get pole, but a small snap cost him and he ended up fourth. But that means he could still lead lap 1.

Norris and Hamilton form up on row three, with Gasly doing very nicely to slide into seventh. Hadjar in eighth is no mean feat, given he outqualified Verstappen, with Bortoleto perhaps a little lower than might’ve been down in ninth, and Lindblad got tenth.

Right now, Antonelli looks the man to beat.

Early Betting Thoughts

Antonelli, win

Piastri, podium

Leclerc, win/podium

Hulkenberg, points

Bearman, points

Hulkenberg beat Bortoleto

Norris beat Piastri



Chap in first with the best car winning is not the most heroic of bets. But it had odds of around 3.5 last time and I felt like a bit of a numpty not going for it. However, Antonelli’s only 1.5 this time, and with Piastri and Leclerc looking like a credible threat (Russell is too, though his Mercedes seems a little off for some reason) such short odds are a bit less appealing.

Piastri starts third and looked close to Russell throughout qualifying, and has the same engine. But he also has no experience starting this year and terrible reliability. If he does actually start then 2.75 is reasonable but not outstanding, given Merces *should* have most of the podium sealed.

Leclerc starts fourth but had the pace to challenge for the front row. Given Ferrari’s strong starts and the Mercedes advantage over Ferrari tending to be a little smaller in the race than qualifying, he has a decent shot of troubling at least Russell. He’s 1.6 for a podium, 15 (each way) to win (Ladbrokes) or 24 outright (BetEx). I think the each way is worth considering.

Hulkenberg and Bearman are both out of position relative to potential pace. The big question is whether Suzuka will be as atrocious for overtaking as it was in 2025 after a stupid decision to resurface, thus massively reducing tyre wear and eliminating strategy, coupled with awful dirty air (which seems less of a factor this year by quite a bit). Bearman is 2.5 from eighteenth to score, Hulkenberg 2.75 from thirteenth to score. However… the Haas has looked less tasty than elsewhere, and while the Audi looks quick it’s reliability has been abysmal. If it starts, I’d back Hulkenberg. But there may be a better bet…

Hulkenberg is 2.75 to beat Bortoleto. This could happen simply because Bortoleto’s Audi fails to make the start. Or if he has a poor, or if Hulkenberg has a good one. On pure pace, Hulkenberg and Bortoleto look very evenly matched and Bortoleto does have track position. But general poor reliability means there’s a greater chance of a safety car showing up and that sort of disruption can benefit someone like Hulkenberg. Risky, but given it may be a coin flip 2.75 may be worth it.

On a similar note, Norris has looked a step behind Piastri all weekend. In Grands Prix, McLaren have an impressive 75% DNS rate. Because of that, 3.3 on Norris is a bit similar to the Hulkenberg versus Bortoleto bet.

Browsing the Market

So, although there’s already a ton of things to think about I decided to browse the market. And here’s what I saw:

Lap 1 leader, not top 3, 2.4

Leclerc has odds of 2.5 on Betfair to lead lap 1, but Any Other Driver (not top 3) on Ladbrokes is 2.4. That may be worth considering. It’s also amusing the chap starting fourth has the shortest odds to lead the first lap.



Perhaps due to heroism, perhaps due to being a bit off, I’ve split a single stake between Hulkenberg to beat Bortoleto at 2.8 (boosted) and Norris to beat Piastri at 3.4 (boosted).

Reminder: clocks change in the UK, so don’t forget for tomorrow.

 

Morris