Japan: pre-qualifying 2018


Despite the approaching typhoon, the weather forecast improved and practice on Friday was dry. In first practice, Hamilton was top, about half a second ahead of Bottas and Ricciardo. Raikkonen and Vettel were three-tenths off the Aussie, with Verstappen a little further back. Ocon, Grosjean, Leclerc, and Ericsson rounded out the top 10.

In second practice, Hamilton again led Bottas by about half a second. Vettel was next, albeit four-tenths off, with two-tenths between him and Verstappen, then Verstappen and Raikkonen. Ricciardo was only a tiny margin off the Finn. Ocon, Grosjean, Ericsson, and Hartley followed.

At this stage, it seems that Ocon, Grosjean, and Sauber are in good shape. Hamilton seems to have a tidy edge over everyone, and Bottas an edge over everyone except his team mate. However, practice can be misleading and rain is a strong, although just outside, possibility for qualifying.

Because third practice is at 4am, I’m putting this post up now rather than in the practice-qualifying interval. Qualifying is at 7am UK time tomorrow, with the race start a little after 6am on Sunday.

Early betting thoughts were:
Bottas each way pole
Ricciardo podium
Both Saubers to reach Q3

Bottas is 5.5 for pole (5.75 with boost). The same odds as last time. Again, I don’t expect him to actually get it, but I do think he has a good chance of being second. A potential pitfall is the possibility of precipitation, however.

Ricciardo’s nearly 3 for a podium but I expect the odds to lengthen after qualifying, when the Red Bull has a significant power disadvantage.

The latter market didn’t show up. May only appear after final practice.

In addition, there’s 2.5 available for a winning margin of over 0.2s. Two credible ways that happens: it rains and the gaps are weirdly enormous, or if Hamilton just blasts everyone with a fantastic lap in the best car.

Both the Bottas and margin bets are tempting. In the end, I decided to back the Bottas bet, each way. Practice is far from perfect as an indicator, but the margins are too significant, I think, to ignore. It also appears that the fancy mystery that was giving Ferrari mega-power on the straights has vanished.

Morris Dancer

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