British Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

Well, I’m glad I didn’t bet because, if I had, it probably would’ve been on Hamilton (or maybe Leclerc).

There were spots of rain in parts of qualifying but nothing that affected times much.

Qualifying as been fantastically competitive this year and this time was no exception. Colapinto dealt his prospects of keeping his Alpine seat a bit more damage when he went off, crashed into a barrier, was able to get going, but had to stop the car and brought out a red flag. Also out in Q1 were Lawson (bit of a surprise), Bortoleto, Stroll, and Hulkenberg.

Q2 said goodbye to Sainz, Tsunoda, Hadjar, Albon, and Ocon. While it’s not ideal for Williams this does mark an improvement, assuming the cars finish the race. Tsunoda was also better than he has been, but it was a bit weak from Ocon to be slowest when Bearman made Q3 (but the Briton has a 10 place grid penalty for a practice red flag infringement, alas).

In Q3 it was looking like McLaren versus Ferrari, with an outside chance of Verstappen doing something special. The Dutchman duly obliged with an absolutely stonking qualifying lap to snatch pole away from Piastri.

The second row is Norris and Russell, who also put in a great final lap to improve dramatically. After all their threat of taking pole, Ferrari had to make do with row three, Hamilton three-hundredths faster than Leclerc. Antonelli was down in 7th, (but does have a 3 place grid penalty from last race) ahead of Bearman, who had a great qualifying but will start in just 18th thanks to his penalty. Alonso put his Aston Martin in 9th (10 places ahead of Stroll, 12 with the aforementioned penalties), and Gasly did well to drag his Alpine into 10th but I strongly suspect he’ll spend the afternoon going backwards from there.

At the time of checking (6am) there’s a high chance of rain, but just light showers. However, I was recently out on a walk when a ‘light shower’ totally soaked me through so don’t rule out the chance of it being heavier.

Early Betting Thoughts

Hamilton, podium

Verstappen, win

Sainz, points

Hulkenberg points

Hamilton is fantastic around Silverstone and while he ‘only’ starts 5th, he outqualified Leclerc and was exactly one tenth off being joint 2nd. The pace is there. My concern, apart from there being five others in the fight at the sharp end, is that Ferrari strategy is not exactly a great asset for him. He’s only 2.25 for a podium, and while he’s got about 12 in a row here those odds with six cars competing and Ferrari strategy just feels too short.

Verstappen leading the way would normally be a shoo-in for the win. However, the lower downforce approach may make him susceptible to rain if it falls, and, if it doesn’t, tyre wear might hamper his prospects. But he is looking good. He’s 2.5 for the win… I’ve got to say I think there’s a decent chance of him and Piastri getting very close off the line. On race pace, Verstappen should go backwards, but we’ve seen leading the first lap be very good as an indicator for winning this year.

Sainz starts 9th following the Antonelli and Bearman penalties but only qualified in 11th, out in Q2. He’s 1.61 for points, which normally I’d find splendid, but Williams have had an exciting variety of bad luck recently and I’m not sure if that’s going to end. Again, too short to tempt.

Hulkenberg and Bortoleto were both out in Q1, which slightly surprised me given how good the Sauber has been recently. Hulkenberg starts 19th and is 7 for points, which I quite like the look of. That might sound daft, but in the last race he started 20th and finished 9th. The car has more pace and things are very close. Hulkenberg’s been slightly off-kilter in qualifying this year but his race performances have been fantastic. He can be excellent in mixed conditions, and is better-suited to old school circuits than streets. While not a definite bet, I do like this one more than the others.

Browsing the Market

And so I browsed the markets to see what popped up.

Hamilton/Leclerc, win each way, 11/21

Ferrari are very close. Better laps were possible and the third row doesn’t really indicate their pace. Splitting and backing both drivers each way (third-stake on Leclerc, two-thirds on Hamilton, to balance the result) is somewhat appealing. Weather’s possible, as is Verstappen clashing with one or both McLarens. Russell’s qualifying was great but I think the Mercedes is last of the frontrunners (excepting the second Red Bull….) on race performance.

 

So, the bets that tempt me are Hulkenberg for more points at 7, or splitting a stake on the Ferraris and backing them each way (pays out a third the odds top 2) for the win. The thing is, if the McLarens hold things together they should be on the podium, possibly ahead of, possibly behind Verstappen. A lightning start is needed by the Prancing Horses. Hulkenberg has recently scored from 16th, 13th, and 20th on the grid. Obviously it’s still less than more likely, but I do think he’s worth backing.

Boosted, this comes to 7.5 for Hulkenberg to score. There are also (small) sums available on Betfair at longer odds, but we’re talking a tenner total. You may choose to hedge at 1.8 in case it looks good and then things fall away.


Morris