Las Vegas: pre-race 2024

Ha, if I’d backed Sainz for pole (each way) as well as the win that would’ve come off. But if wishes were fishes…

Aston Martin worked hard to get Stroll’s car fixed for qualifying but his sole lap was the slowest. Alonso also failed to progress, as did Perez. Albon left at this stage, as did Bottas, both men outqualified by their team mates.

Q2 ended with a longer break than usual as Colapinto binned his car into the wall and barrier repair plus track cleaning was required. The yellow flag ruined the chance for some to escape, such as Magnussen, who qualified 12th, right behind Ocon. Zhou Guanyu was a surprisingly good 13th, ahead of Colapinto and Lawson (whose team mate made it to Q3).

All session long Mercedes, particularly Russell, had looked like the man to beat, with perhaps McLaren the closest competitor. And so it proved, with Russell on pole. But Sainz is the man starting alongside him on the front row.

Full marks to anyone who tipped Gasly to be top 3, because he leads the second row ahead of Leclerc. Third row is Verstappen ahead of Norris, which could be tasty, while Tsunoda leads Piastri on row four. Hulkenberg qualified 9th, with Hamilton fluffing Q3 and ending up just 10th. Not great given his team mate is on pole.


Race pace for Ferrari is thought to be excellent.

Note: Bottas gets a 5 place grid penalty for new parts.



Early Betting Thoughts

Sainz, win
Leclerci, win/podium
Perez, points
Gasly, podium/top 6
Zhou Guanyu, points


Sainz starts 2nd on the grid and the Ferrari’s race pace is reportedly excellent. He’s joint favourite with Leclerc at 3.25. However, I also backed him (tipped on PB) each way at 7.5 so I’m not too inclined to make this bet.

Speaking of Leclerc, he’s 3.25 to win, as mentioned, and 1.44 to get on the podium (same as Sainz). He’s got a great chance of both but the track is slippy and last time out we had virtual and actual safety cars, so those and red flags are eminently possible. This makes me less inclined to back short odds bets as these can be more easily upset.

Speaking of upsets, Perez had an appalling qualifying, out in Q1 to start 16th. Last year he finished 3rd, having started 11th. Points should not be beyond him. The odds are 1.67. Not too appealing, perhaps value, but the chance of chaos and crashing puts me off.

Gasly’s qualifying lap was quite something. Could he hold on for two podium results on the bounce? Even staying top 6 would be an achievement. For top 6 he’s 2.25, and he’s out at 21 for a podium. Hmm. If you have a free bet, this is worth looking at. For a tip… unlikely. But we’ve seen unlikely things happen.

On the unlikely front, Zhou Guanyu seemed to thrive in the chilly conditions, putting his car into Q2. He’s 15 to score a point. I wonder if that’s more or less likely in reality than Gasly getting another podium. I’m not backing this.


Browsing the Markets

I waited patiently and eventually the markets got put up fully.

Gasly, win group 1, 21

I checked out Gasly’s qualifying times in Q2 to see just how out of whack Q3 was. In Q2 he was slower than Russell and Sainz, but faster than everyone else in the top 10. Group 1 is Gasly, the McLarens, Hamilton, and Verstappen. The Dutchman might be difficult but I think he has a decent shot of beating the rest (Hamilton should have pace but made errors in qualifying that bode ill). This might be worth backing.

Last year, he qualified in 4th and fell out of the points, while Ocon qualified 16th and finished 4th. Ocon starts 11th this time and is 15 to be top 6.


Gasly, win each way, 101

Hear me out. The Alpines were amazing in the low grip of sodden Interlagos. Because of temperature, Las Vegas is also low grip. And Ocon showed the potential last year. If Gasly can keep things together this is not impossible. It’s slightly crazy, but not impossible. And I’d set the hedge at 8.


Leclerc to beat Verstappen, 1.6

Pretty boring bet but the Monegasque should probably have been on the front row and the Red Bull looks to have poor grip. Barring DNFs or weird stuff, this should happen seven times out of eight, I think.


I much prefer a middling sort of bet to a long shot. Yet the Ferraris and Russell feel too short at this stage.

If you took the earlier tip on Sainz at 7.5 each way, I’d hedge that at 3.5 (currently available on the Betfair win market) and just enjoy the profit.

For the race, I’ve backed Leclerc to beat Verstappen at 1.6. If you have a free bet, consider a long shot on Gasly, or perhaps Ocon.
 

Race start is at 6am. Hopefully I’ll be up in time.


Morris Dancer