Belgian Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

Sprint qualifying had a few surprises, with SQ1 losing Albon, Hulkenberg, Hamilton, Colapinto, and Antonelli. I think only Hulkenberg and Colapinto aren’t too surprising there. For all his great race results, Hulkenberg’s regularly gone out early. Hamilton spun, Albon was just not quick enough, and Antonelli, from the sounds of it, had some sort of floor damage. That said, it’s worth noting neither Mercedes looked fast.

SQ2 saw Piastri scrape through in 10th after a great time was eliminated and he had to set another on used tyres. Lawson, Tsunoda, Russell, Alonso, and Stroll all left, and the track showed immense evolution.

SQ3 was a dominant pole for Piastri, and Haas also really punched above their weight. The Aussie led Verstappen on the front row, with Norris relegated to 3rd alongside Leclerc. Ocon was 5th, with Sainz 6th (great for both), Bearman leading Gasly on row four, and Hadjar and Bortoleto bringing up the rear.

The sprint itself saw Gasly not start due to a suspected water leak, while Colapinto had a pit lane start due to setup changes. Not ideal for Alpine. They also sent the Argentine out on soft tyres which didn’t really work.

Everyone started on the medium tyres, some brand new, other with a few laps on them. Off the line it was formation flying but along the Kemmel straight Verstappen took advantage of the slipstream to take the lead from Piastri. Meanwhile, Leclerc took 3rd from Norris. Lap 2 attempts from the McLarens to retake their places both failed. By lap 3, Piastri was very close to Verstappen and the top two were out of Leclerc’s DRS range.

Two laps down, Gasly got sent out… which was a bit odd. Probably checking they’d fixed the water leak. But they kept him out for many laps, which was unexpected.

On lap 4, Norris managed to get ahead of Leclerc to retake 3rd. He was 2s behind Piastri at this point. By the end of the lap Norris was about a second ahead of Leclerc, highlighting the McLaren pace advantage. Norris started to slowly catch up with Piastri, and was about 1.2s behind Piastri on lap 7. By lap 9 Norris was in DRS of Piastri, who was in DRS of Verstappen.

Verstappen did very well to pass Piastri then hold on all race long. Norris had to make do with 3rd, with Leclerc a lonely 4th. Ocon and Sainz will be happy to get some useful points, with Bearman and Hadjar adding a little to their own points tallies.

Despite a lot of DRS there was relatively little in the way of passing in the sprint.

The track has been resurfaced, providing more grip, and may also make it easier to make a one stop work.

In qualifying, there were a few upsets. In Q1, Hamilton had a critical lap deleted for track limits and was relegated into the bottom 5, leaving in the first part of qualifying just like the sprint. Likewise, Antonelli failed to escape as did Colapinto. Both Aston Martins went out at this stage too, which was a slight surprise.

Q2 was a case of what might have been for pretty much every eliminated driver. Ocon and Bearman were the fastest men eliminated. Bearman had a scruffy start to his lap and was compromised by Tsunoda going past him right before the lap started. Gasly could only manage 13th, not bad given his car but far cry from his sprint result. Hulkenberg and Sainz were also out, each of them having a team mate who reached the final part of qualifying.

And to Q3, which was looking like a typical McLaren-Verstappen battle. I expected Piastri to take pole but it was Norris who claimed the top slot on the grid, leading Piastri in a McLaren front row. And Leclerc put in a great lap to take 3rd ahead of Verstappen. Albon had a phenomenal 5th, and great return to form for him after some more difficult races. Williams, I believe, have brought an extra upgrade having been surprised by just how fierce the competition has become, particularly from Hulkenberg.

Russell’s 6th might not look great but the Mercedes isn’t looking fantastic this weekend so it’s not bad. Tsunoda’s 7th is a solid result, just three places behind Verstappen. Maybe having his old team principal in charge at Red Bull is helping out a bit. Hadjar and Lawson qualified 8th and 9th, good double result for Racing Bulls, with Bortoleto in 10th.

At the time of writing, there’s around a 60% chance of thundery showers for the time the race will run, which should be considered when betting.

Early Betting Thoughts

Bearman, points

Hulkenberg, points

Bearman really had the pace for the top 10 and was screwed by a mix of a poor start and Tsunoda overtaking him and compromising his quick lap. He’s also got a high downforce setup so he’ll also be in with a shout if it rains (although I think his wet record might not be fantastic). Bearman is 3 for points, which is reasonable but not fantastic.

Hulkenberg’s made scoring a habit of late and from worse starting positions than this. In the wet, he’s shown to have great judgement, and it could rain. He’s only 3 for points, and there’s not yet, that I can see, clarification over whether he (or Stroll, or neither) has a penalty for the qualifying pit lane contact. He did go backwards in the sprint, and passing here’s a lot harder than it might seem, but the race being wet could alter things drastically

 

Browsing the Market

And so, as is my custom, I perused the markets looking for value.


Hulkenberg, top 8, 7

At three of the last four races Hulkenberg has finished top 8, and the time he didn’t he was 9th. This is heavily contingent on the weather, I think. If it’s dry, this won’t come off, and if he’s unlucky with the weather or a safety car it could ruin the bet (but the reverse is true as well). Worth thinking about but less of a slam dunk than I would think on a track like Canada.


Albon to win group 1, 3

Albon faces Hadjar, Tsunoda, and Hamilton in group 1. Passing’s very hard and he starts 5th, while the others are 8th, 7th, and 16th respectively. My concerns here is that in wet weather it could come a cropper pretty easily, and the Mercedes engine/Williams team have not been the most reliable lately.


Verstappen to win, each way 5

In the dry, Verstappen will be dropped by the McLarens in a moment, but in the wet it *might* be a different story. He’s also second in line to benefit if they come together, which can happen at Spa, and in the wet I suspect his pace will be better than Leclerc’s.



So, I’m finding it hard to see a bet that’s good both in the wet and the dry, which is annoying. In the end, I’ve gone for Bearman for points at 3.1. His position of 12th in qualifying does not reflect his pace, and his higher downforce approach means if it does rain he should have the edge over Ocon. He also did very nicely in the UK in the rain, just missing out on points having started near the back of the grid.

If you’ve got a £1 free bet I’d be tempted to slap it on Hulkenberg for the win each way at 301 (376 with boost). Unlikely he can repeat a Silverstone-style result, but you never know. 

Anyway, I feel far less confident betting here than I did last time but we shall see. Bearman flew under the radar in the UK but actually had a pretty impressive race. This time he only has a couple of places to make up but he probably needs a helping hand from the weather.



Morris