Brazilian Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
I tend not to comment, good or bad, on bet results but a Mercedes being top 2 but not the guy who finishes ahead 85% of the time and whom I’d backed was pretty galling. Ah, well. I had a lot of flukey results in previous seasons so 50/50s going against me this year is just the way it goes…and it was a crazy qualifying session.
Quick sprint rundown: Piastri out. He spun and was immediately followed by Hulkenberg and Colapinto so it looked like bad luck rather than a serious error. With Norris winning this was another step backwards for the Aussie. Verstappen was 4th, and Gasly got the last point in 8th.
Qualifying saw Red Bull make serious setup changes to try and make up for relatively weak pace in the sprint. This had the opposite effect, with Verstappen out in Q1 in 16th. He was ahead of Ocon (as he had been at the line in Brazil last year), then came Colapinto, Tsunoda, and Bortoleto, who was unable to set a time due to his car not being fixed in time. Rough home race for the Brazilian.
Q2’s main shock was Hamilton out in 13th. Either that or Hulkenberg making Q3 for the first time this year. The Ferrari has not looked on it this weekend. Ahead of the Briton were Alonso and Albon, and behind him were Stroll and Sainz, making Hamilton the meat in an Aston-Williams sandwich.
Heading into Q3 Norris seemed the man to beat, but Mercedes looked competitive. Norris ended up getting pole by just over a tenth ahead fo Antonelli, replicating the sprint front row. Very good stuff from both of them.
Leclerc dragged his Ferrari into 3rd but I think, while that was a great performance, he’ll struggle to maintain it in the race. We shall see. Piastri lines up alongside him. Hadjar leads Russell on row three, another excellent French performance, but the Briton had struggled so much with the soft tyre that he resorted to the medium for his final run. The Mercedes had the pace to challenge for pole but Russell, unusually this year, was unable to extract it.
Lawson and Bearman comprise row four, and given their contact in the sprint this might make for an early collision. Bearman might feel oddly disappointed with 8th as he looked a genuine contender at the sharp end. Gasly got his awful Alpine up into 9th, and leads Hulkenberg on the fifth row.
There seem to be no grid penalties, and there’s a chance of some rain but probably nothing serious. Though you can never be sure.
Bearman, podium
Piastri, podium/win each way
The McLaren seemed to chew its soft tyres quite a bit in the sprint, though it was on them for longer than the Mercedes due to the lap 8 red flag seeing many cars swap compounds. Antonelli’s been quick in both the sprint and real qualifying, and also looked swift in yesterday’s pretend race. Antonelli is 8 to win each way with Ladbrokes and can be backed just to win at 9.4 on Betfair.
A ‘brave’ bet (if you have a free one then consider this) is Bearman for a podium. He looked very good in qualifying, dropping off a bit in Q3. But this is a track where passing is eminently possible. Bearman on the podium is odds against, but it is not incredible. His recent performances have been very good. Bearman has odds of 26 (28 on Betfair) for a podium.
Piastri crashing out in the sprint feels like more of the same, but as it was down to misfortune rather than driver error I do think he’s more together than that result implies. I’d be surprised if Leclerc held on, and, if he doesn’t, Piastri’s straight onto the podium. If he can drive to his potential then he might be able to give Norris and Antonelli something to think about. For the podium, the Aussie’s just 1.33 (1.41 Betfair) which doesn’t appeal given his recent woes and chance of rain. For the win, he’s out at 7 each way, or 8.8 just to win on Betfair.
Norris looks very likely to win, so both Antonelli and Piastri each way feels tempting. But backing both does mean the odds aren’t long enough to finish ahead unless one actually wins.
Over 2.5 leaders in the Grand Prix, 2.25
This might seem like a weird choice, but as overtaking’s eminently possible it decreases the penalty for pitting into traffic. On top of that, with rain possible this could affect the situation.
Antonelli to beat Piastri, 2.6
Just a straight head-to-head, and the Italian’s been rather good so far. Being the top Mercedes this weekend also means preference for strategy. The potential weak spot is if rain comes down, which can be very tricky here.
Hulkenberg/Gasly to score, 2.4, 2.5
Hulkenberg and Gasly were running 10th and 11th before the spins and red flag, with Gasly going on to finish 8th in the sprint and grab a rare point for Alpine (last time was back in Belgium). Given they start 9th and 10th it’s not a real stretch for me to see them doing well, especially if it’s dry.
Bearman, top 6, 3.3
Not as heroic as the podium, but Bearman climbing a couple of spots, especially given there’s two Racing Bulls ahead of him, seems a credible possibility. The odds aren’t too bad, and, as lead Haas, he’ll get preferential strategy. The rain possibility could be rough, though.
So, it’s one of those weekends where I have a ton of bets I kind of like but none that really grab me. And, as an aside, even as I type I’m losing the feeling in my right hand (bad circulation) which is less than helpful for putting together this blog…
After much contemplation I’ve decided to back Antonelli each way, boosted to 8.5. As a second tip, I’ve also heroically split a single stake four ways to back Antonelli to beat Piastri (2.65), Bearman to be top 6 (3.4), and Hulkenberg/Gasly to score (2.45/2.55 respectively). I think the latter four all have value but I’d be unsurprised if one or two don’t come off.
For those so inclined, I’ve also set up a hedge on Antonelli to win on Betfair at evens, two and a half times the stake.
Let’s hope the race is greener than qualifying.
Morris Dancer
Quick sprint rundown: Piastri out. He spun and was immediately followed by Hulkenberg and Colapinto so it looked like bad luck rather than a serious error. With Norris winning this was another step backwards for the Aussie. Verstappen was 4th, and Gasly got the last point in 8th.
Qualifying saw Red Bull make serious setup changes to try and make up for relatively weak pace in the sprint. This had the opposite effect, with Verstappen out in Q1 in 16th. He was ahead of Ocon (as he had been at the line in Brazil last year), then came Colapinto, Tsunoda, and Bortoleto, who was unable to set a time due to his car not being fixed in time. Rough home race for the Brazilian.
Q2’s main shock was Hamilton out in 13th. Either that or Hulkenberg making Q3 for the first time this year. The Ferrari has not looked on it this weekend. Ahead of the Briton were Alonso and Albon, and behind him were Stroll and Sainz, making Hamilton the meat in an Aston-Williams sandwich.
Heading into Q3 Norris seemed the man to beat, but Mercedes looked competitive. Norris ended up getting pole by just over a tenth ahead fo Antonelli, replicating the sprint front row. Very good stuff from both of them.
Leclerc dragged his Ferrari into 3rd but I think, while that was a great performance, he’ll struggle to maintain it in the race. We shall see. Piastri lines up alongside him. Hadjar leads Russell on row three, another excellent French performance, but the Briton had struggled so much with the soft tyre that he resorted to the medium for his final run. The Mercedes had the pace to challenge for pole but Russell, unusually this year, was unable to extract it.
Lawson and Bearman comprise row four, and given their contact in the sprint this might make for an early collision. Bearman might feel oddly disappointed with 8th as he looked a genuine contender at the sharp end. Gasly got his awful Alpine up into 9th, and leads Hulkenberg on the fifth row.
There seem to be no grid penalties, and there’s a chance of some rain but probably nothing serious. Though you can never be sure.
Early Betting Thoughts
Antonelli, win each wayBearman, podium
Piastri, podium/win each way
The McLaren seemed to chew its soft tyres quite a bit in the sprint, though it was on them for longer than the Mercedes due to the lap 8 red flag seeing many cars swap compounds. Antonelli’s been quick in both the sprint and real qualifying, and also looked swift in yesterday’s pretend race. Antonelli is 8 to win each way with Ladbrokes and can be backed just to win at 9.4 on Betfair.
A ‘brave’ bet (if you have a free one then consider this) is Bearman for a podium. He looked very good in qualifying, dropping off a bit in Q3. But this is a track where passing is eminently possible. Bearman on the podium is odds against, but it is not incredible. His recent performances have been very good. Bearman has odds of 26 (28 on Betfair) for a podium.
Piastri crashing out in the sprint feels like more of the same, but as it was down to misfortune rather than driver error I do think he’s more together than that result implies. I’d be surprised if Leclerc held on, and, if he doesn’t, Piastri’s straight onto the podium. If he can drive to his potential then he might be able to give Norris and Antonelli something to think about. For the podium, the Aussie’s just 1.33 (1.41 Betfair) which doesn’t appeal given his recent woes and chance of rain. For the win, he’s out at 7 each way, or 8.8 just to win on Betfair.
Norris looks very likely to win, so both Antonelli and Piastri each way feels tempting. But backing both does mean the odds aren’t long enough to finish ahead unless one actually wins.
Browsing the Market
As usual, I browsed the market and, as usual, was annoyed that despite 11 hours passing since the end of qualifying Ladbrokes didn’t have its groups up (although these have, often, now ballooned to 5 rather than 4 drivers which does decrease my interest).Over 2.5 leaders in the Grand Prix, 2.25
This might seem like a weird choice, but as overtaking’s eminently possible it decreases the penalty for pitting into traffic. On top of that, with rain possible this could affect the situation.
Antonelli to beat Piastri, 2.6
Just a straight head-to-head, and the Italian’s been rather good so far. Being the top Mercedes this weekend also means preference for strategy. The potential weak spot is if rain comes down, which can be very tricky here.
Hulkenberg/Gasly to score, 2.4, 2.5
Hulkenberg and Gasly were running 10th and 11th before the spins and red flag, with Gasly going on to finish 8th in the sprint and grab a rare point for Alpine (last time was back in Belgium). Given they start 9th and 10th it’s not a real stretch for me to see them doing well, especially if it’s dry.
Bearman, top 6, 3.3
Not as heroic as the podium, but Bearman climbing a couple of spots, especially given there’s two Racing Bulls ahead of him, seems a credible possibility. The odds aren’t too bad, and, as lead Haas, he’ll get preferential strategy. The rain possibility could be rough, though.
So, it’s one of those weekends where I have a ton of bets I kind of like but none that really grab me. And, as an aside, even as I type I’m losing the feeling in my right hand (bad circulation) which is less than helpful for putting together this blog…
After much contemplation I’ve decided to back Antonelli each way, boosted to 8.5. As a second tip, I’ve also heroically split a single stake four ways to back Antonelli to beat Piastri (2.65), Bearman to be top 6 (3.4), and Hulkenberg/Gasly to score (2.45/2.55 respectively). I think the latter four all have value but I’d be unsurprised if one or two don’t come off.
For those so inclined, I’ve also set up a hedge on Antonelli to win on Betfair at evens, two and a half times the stake.
Let’s hope the race is greener than qualifying.
Morris Dancer
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