Imola: pre-race 2024

Apologies for the lack of pre-qualifying ramble, my time proved unexpectedly short.

Upgrades galore this time round, excepting VCARB/RB/AlphaTauri/Toro Rosso. Important race as the Ferrari and McLaren teams will be hoping to take the fight to Red Bull.

Also, the circuit has been altered slightly with far more gravel traps.

Qualifying was rather fun this time around. In the first session Alonso was a shock departure. The Aston Martin upgrades don’t look like they’re doing the job (a worrying situation as this was also the case last year). Less surprising were the exits of both Saubers, Magnussen, and Sargeant. Worth noting both Alpines escaped.

Q2 also had a big name drop out: Perez. No gravel woe or suchlike, he simply was not fast enough. He was the fastest eliminated ahead of both Alpines, Stroll, and Albon.

Heading into Q3 it seemed like a five way fight (McLarens, Ferraris, and Verstappen). And so it proved, but once more the Dutchman refused to cede pole position to anyone else and claimed the top spot again. Both Piastri and Norris got within a tenth, emphasising that McLaren is currently the biggest challenger to Verstappen’s dominance.

Lecler and Sainz line up 4th and 5th, with Russell doing well to put his Mercedes alongside the Spaniard on the third row. The fourth row consists of Tsunoda (who was impressive throughout qualifying) and Hamilton, with Ricciardo and Hulkenberg completing the upper half of the grid.

Worth remembering the track is very difficult for passing, making a single stop likely. Gravel traps also mean errors get punished.

NB Piastri received a 3 place grid penalty for impeding Magnussen. Rather a shame.

 

Early Betting Thoughts

Norris, win each way

Norris/Piastri, podium

Tsunoda, top 6

I’d originally planned to back Piastri to win each way, and the odds were fairly nice (circa 11). However, his penalty means Norris inherits 2nd place on the grid, but he’s just 4 to win. It’s certainly plausible but not great odds.

Norris is 1.33 for a podium. I dislike short odds generally, and with gravel traps aplenty, the likelihood of a single stop strategy, and the potential for a safety car potentially ruining a race, this does not appeal to me.

Tsunoda has been impressive all weekend and starts in 7th place. He’s 3.5 for a top 6 finish which may be worth backing, though Perez will be pushing to recover.

 

Browsing the Markets

And so I perused the markets on the hunt for value.

Tsunoda, win group 1, 9

Leclerc, winner each way, 9

Under 17.5 classified finishers, 17.5

The Tsunoda group 1 bet (also including both Mercedes and Perez) is not identical to but is akin to the top 6 bet. The odds of 9 mean it may be more appealing. The downside is that if the McLarens and Ferraris get in a tangle, Tsunoda ends up on the podium, but Perez beats him, it fails. Worth considering.

Leclerc starts 3rd thanks to Piastri’s demotion, and if he can grab a single place at the start, or if Norris has another poor getaway then he may well end up as runner-up. However, the McLaren has looked the faster car this weekend.

In the previous three races here there have been 5, 3, and 2 non-classified finishers and that was before the gravel traps got added. Under 17.5 is 2.1, under 16.5 is 3.75. However, such DNFs this year have been 1, 3, 3, 3 (2+1 DNS), 2, 0.

At this stage I’m annoyed by the Piastri penalty as I’d planned to back him each way to win.

Hard to find value, so I’ve backed there to be fewer than 17.5 classified finishers at 2.15 (boosted).

Race start is 2pm.

 

Morris Dancer

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

F1 2025 Canadian Grand Prix Preview (Undercutters Ep24 transcript)

Image
Hello, everyone. This is the 24th Undercutters podcast, looking ahead to the Canadian Grand Prix. I’ve got to admit, this is one of my favourite tracks on the calendar, partly because of the amazing race in 2011. As always, if you want to get in touch you can find me on Twitter or Blue Sky as MorrisF1, or at the morrisf1.blogspot.com website. Will Piastri continue extending his lead over Norris? Will Williams bounce back after a rare pointless weekend? And will Verstappen keep his cool this time?   Quick Look at the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve 00m40s The Canadian Grand Prix takes place at the Circuit Gilles-Villeneueve, a short circuit of 5.36km which means we get 70 laps in the race. There are three DRS zones, two of which are in sector 3 (the latter drifts into the start of sector 1) and share a detection point. The other zone is in sector 2. Sector 3 is prime passing territory, with a hairpin at turn 10, and the following straight also having decent potential for getting ahead. ...
Read more

F1 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix Review (Undercutters Ep17 transcript)

Image
Hello, everyone. This is the 17th Undercutters podcast, reviewing the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, and its implications for the title battle. I’m your host, Morris, and you can find me on Twitter and Blue Sky as MorrisF1. And if you like the podcast please remember to leave a positive rating as this helps a lot. But enough call to action nonsense. We have F1 to talk about. Saudi Arabian Grand Prix Qualifying 00m28s While some races have been hit and miss, qualifying has almost always thrown up surprises this year. Saudi Arabia was no exception. The Aston Martin was not looking good, so Stroll being the fastest man eliminated in Q1 is not exactly unexpected. Also eliminated were Doohan, Hulkenberg, Ocon, and Bortoleto. Of those, Ocon was perhaps most surprising, although this circuit does not seem to suit the Haas especially well. This was backed up by Bearman being slowest in Q2. At this stage we also lost Albon, Lawson, Alonso, and Hadjar. Slightly surprised to see Hadjar outqualifi...
Read more

F1 2024 Title Fight

Image
 [Note: this is the script plus additional graphics for the first Undercutters podcast. Audio can be found here ]. Hello, everyone, and welcome to the first Undercutters podcast, hosted by me, Morris. We start at the end of a fantastic Formula 1 season, one of the very best of recent times. There’s a lot to look back at and we’re going to start at the most obvious place: the title battle between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris. Verstappen absolutely dominated the 2023 season, crushing all opposition to win by a comedically large 290 points. His next closest challenger was his team mate, Sergio Perez, who had just 285 points, less than half Verstappen’s total of 575. The closest non-Red Bull driver was Lewis Hamilton on 234 points.     In 2023, there was only one race that Red Bull didn’t win, when Carlos Sainz claimed the victory for Ferrari in Singapore. Perez won in Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan and every other race was Verstappen’s. While neutrals and fans of other team...
Read more