Miami: pre-race 2024

The sprint race weekend format remains stupid, but there we are. I didn’t watch the sprint live but did watch a highlights video to see what, if anything, could be learned.

Sprint Race

In the sprint it was plain sailing for Verstappen and Leclerc but Norris got hit on the first lap and put out. Ricciardo did well and fended off Sainz all day long (though he did get passed by Perez). After those five were Piastri, Hulkenberg, and Tsunoda. Hamilton was hit by a 20s penalty for pit lane speeding which cost him the place (and more) to Tsunoda.

Passing, then, was not easy especially as Ricciardo lacked DRS much of the time yet was still able to stop Sainz from making his way into 4th. Both were on the medium tyres.

 

Qualifying

The first session saw mostly typical eliminations in the forms of Bottas, Sargeant, Magnussen, and Zhou Guanyu, but the odd one out was Ricciardo. After his excellent performance earlier in the day the Aussie could only manage 18th in qualifying.

Session two was also mostly as one might predict, save that the two Aston Martins were fastest and slowest to be axed yet it was Alonso lacking the pace. Between the two were the Williams drivers and Albon.

Both Hulkenberg and Tsunoda made it to Q3 despite their team mates going out in Q1, and line up on the fifth row. Ahead of them are the Mercedes, with Russell ahead of Hamilton, further cementing their status as the fourth fastest team. The third row is McLaren territory, with Norris ahead despite setting his initial Q3 time on medium tyres (just about everyone failed to improve on their second runs).

Sainz and Perez form up on the second row, while the familiar pairing of Verstappen and Leclerc took the top slots.

 

Early Betting Thoughts

Leclerc, win each way

Sainz, podium

 

Track position will be eminently important and recent races, and the sprint, have shown that the Ferraris and McLarens can match Perez on pace. There’s a decent chance the Prancing Horses will have a good day, though beating Verstappen might be a step too far. However, Leclerc is only 7 for the win (each way third the odds) which is pretty tight.

Sainz for a podium is 2.1, again, pretty tight.

 

Browsing the Markets

In accordance with the teachings of Sarenrae I then browsed the markets.

Sainz, winner each way, 19

Perez, winner each way, 23

 

Sainz and Perez comprise the second row. Both have the potential to get past Leclerc (who occasionally has bad starts). Ferrari strategy has actually been sound this year but is ever present as a possible downside. And the Red Bull in particular is mighty in a straight line (both Sainz and Hamilton struggled to make headway against a slower car ahead). If Verstappen pulls away this also gives Red Bull the capacity to pit Perez at the optimal time, which might prove handy.

While not enamoured with the bet, Sainz and Perez each way for the win, boosted to 21 and 26 respectively, seems the best or least worst idea. Backed them both with a single stake split evenly.


Morris Dancer

 

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