Monaco: pre-race 2024
And so to the actually exciting bit of the Monaco Grand Prix weekend: qualifying.
Things were extremely close in Q1 and the list of five eliminated drivers has some unusual names: Alonso, Sargeant, Perez, Bottas, and Zhou Guanyu is the full set. Alonso being outqualified, again, by Stroll is rather shocking. And Perez’s quest to retain his seat won’t be helped by qualifying 18th on a track where passing is nigh on impossible. To be fair, the margins were tighter than most of the time, but even so.
I was mildly surprised (given past heroics) that Hulkenberg failed to escape Q2, as did his team mate. Ocon, Ricciardo, and Stroll also exited, and it was looking very close indeed at the sharp end. That said, at this moment Leclerc looked more of an outsider than heavy favourite for pole.
But come Q3 the Monegasque put his Ferrari at the front of the grid for tomorrow’s race. An impressive Piastri, who had looked quick throughout, joins him on the first row.
The second row is also a Ferrari-McLaren affair, with best friends Sainz and Norris lining up alongside one another.
We have to go back to row three to find Verstappen, where he’s just behind Russell. Hamilton and Tsunoda follow, with Albon and Gasly completing the top 10.
Penalties: Both Haas drivers had their times disqualified for DRS infringements, meaning they start at the back of the grid.
Early Betting Thoughts
Piastri, win each way
No safety car
Lay Verstappen podium
Piastri starts second only to Leclerc and passing is super difficult. His odds on winning, each way, are 6, which might be worth backing. Against that is that he tends to cane it early on in a stint and Monaco is one circuit you do not want to be going hell for leather as an extra stop will bugger your race. However, he’s likely to stay in 2nd after the first lap, with Leclerc trundling, and if he did get into the lead then a lay would be eminently matchable.
There’s often, but not always, a safety car at Monaco. The odds of 3.5 are a bit stingier than might be expected, however.
Verstappen starts 6th and can be laid for a podium only at 3.9. Still likely but the odds don’t appeal. I bottled an early bet on this, when he was 1.58 pre-qualifying, but there we are.
So, the Piastri bet seems appealing, and checking the markets early on yielded nothing.
I’ve backed him, each way, to win at 6.5 (boosted), with a hedge set up at 1.8. I’ve also hedged the earlier Sainz bet at the same odds.
The ‘race’ starts at 2pm.
Morris Dancer
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