Abu Dhabi: pre-race 2024

And so to qualifying, with Ferrari facing an uphill battle thanks to Leclerc’s penalty and the McLarens looking rather swift.

Q1 saw some atrocious luck for Hamilton. The track was ramping up so most went out for a second lap. Magnussen was ahead of Hamilton, got off line but knocked over a bollard, this got briefly wedged beneath the Mercedes and destroyed any hope for escape. Hamilton was joined in the departure lounge by both Williams, Zhou Guanyu, and Doohan.

Things were looking very tight as we went into Q2, with Verstappen far faster than in practice and the Haas drivers both looking good. However, Magnussen was unable to progress (indeed, he was slowest of all in the session). Tsunoda and Lawson were both eliminated, though the Japanese driver may derive some satisfaction for beating his Kiwi counterpart. Stroll was also out here. Alarmingly for Ferrari, Leclerc’s fastest lap was deleted for a track limit violation and he was 14th in qualifying, which is going to put him at the back of the grid. Mission Difficult just became Mission Impossible for Ferrari in their title quest.

The initial fast runs in Q3 had Verstappen handily quickest thanks to him saving an extra set of new soft tyres (everyone else’s initial run was on a used set). However, when push came to shove it was McLaren’s day. They secured the front row, Norris two-tenths up on Piastri. Sainz was only two-hundredths off the Aussie and is joined on the second row by Hulkenberg, who was only six-hundredths slower. Could the German finally stand on the podium?

Verstappen qualified 5th, a while six-hundredths behind Hulkenberg, and four-hundredths faster than Gasly who joins the Dutchman on the third row. Row four is Russell and Alonso, with Bottas doing sterling work to put his Sauber in 9th, ahead of Perez. The whole top 10 was covered by less than seven-tenths.


One note about McLaren: they’ve put a premium on downforce over straight line speed, making them faster in the third sector and slower in the second. If they suffer traffic for whatever reason they might find it relatively harder to get ahead.

A weird thing happened in qualifying. Both Perez and Piastri had laps deleted for track limits, only to have them reinstated. Rather unusual. The corrections to reinstate them were correct, incidentally.

Penalties: both Williams drivers have 5 place grid penalties for gearboxes, while Leclerc has a 10 place grid penalty for changing his batteries. Also, later on it emerged Hulkenberg has a 3 place grid penalty for disregarding the race director’s instructions and overtaking cars (in the pit lane exit).



Early Betting Thoughts

Hulkenberg, podium
Haas, double points
Leclerc/Hamilton, points

My Hulkenberg podium idea was from before his penalty, but I thought I’d check the odds anyway. He has odds of 13. While I’d like to bet that, and if you have a free bet it might be worth considering, I really don’t think it’s on from 7th. From 4th, he’d just need a slice or two of good luck. From 7th, he’d need a whole cake. So, while I’d like to see it, I don’t think it’ll be happening.

Magnussen starts from 14th, promoted a spot due to Albon’s gearbox penalty. However, the Haas has been looking good all weekend. However, double points is only 3.5 for them, which is not appealing given both need to be top 10 and he’s got both Hamilton and Leclerc behind him.

Hamilton is 1.25 for points, and Leclerc is 1.28. Unfortunately, starting from the back (assuming they don’t change a bundle of components and opt for a pit lane start) does mean lap 1 entanglements are on the table. Not too appealing.



In accordance with the principles of Saint Irenaeus, I perused the markets. Here’s what leapt out at me:

Gasly beat Hulkenberg, evens
Hulkenberg and Tsunoda top 10, 3.75
Sainz beat Piastri, 2.6
Sainz winner each way, 9
Williams, 1 or 2 cars not to be classified, 3.25

Due to the penalty, Gasly starts two places ahead of Hulkenberg. His pace in qualifying was a tenth slower, but I think a bet here comes down to the start. Evens on the Frenchman is a reasonable bet.

Hulkenberg starts 7th and Tsunoda 11th. On the face of it, 3.75 for both to be top 10 is pretty appealing. However, I do expect Hamilton and Leclerc to spoil this party, particularly for the Japanese drver.

Sainz starts one place behind Piastri and was two-hundredths slower in qualifying. 2.6 to move up one place is not bad. However, there’s a better bet to be had…

Assuming Piastri and Sainz stay at the sharp end, the 9 each way on Sainz to win is much better value as moving to 2nd ahead of Piastri in 3rd would be rewarded at a third of 8/1. This could happen off the line, and it could also happen if the top three stay in close formation and a safety car emerges, as double-stacking the McLarens under a safety car would come with a time penalty unlikely to affect Ferrari due to Leclerc’s grid penalty. It can also come off if Norris has a trademark bad start.

Last time I almost backed Williams to have 1 or 2 cars not classified (which happened, yet again). At 3.25, this is a decent bet once again although I think I prefer the Sainz winner each way bet.


So, a final tip of the year: Sainz, winner each way, boosted to 9.5. I’ve set up a hedge at 3 on Betfair.

Race starts at 1pm UK time.


Morris Dancer