F1 2024 Season: Betting Review

After an immensely lucky 2023, the 2024 season proved to be almost universally the other way around. What luck affected the first half of the season was bad, but things did turn around towards the end. Both of my latter Leclerc and Sainz bets were poorly judged but skilfully attended by good fortune to come good. Surprisingly, I finished the season fairly comfortably ahead. Here’s how the season unfolded from a betting perspective.


Bahrain to Spain

In the first ten races of this 24 races season, from Bahrain to Spain, I was ahead at one of them (with another one being essentially flat, a loss of under £1, assuming £10 stakes). Needless to say, this was abysmal. Was this poor judgement, or bad luck?

Well, unless fortune is terrible then such a persistently bad run of form is likely to be at least partly, and probably mostly, down to consistently poor judgement. What’s interesting is that this period covers both the initial Red Bull dominance and the period (Miami onwards) when McLaren, Ferrari, and Mercedes were also vying for wins.

In Bahrain I backed Alonso for a podium and he ended up 9th. In hindsight, this was poor but as a first race and given Aston Martin’s earlier good form in this regulatory era it was not necessarily totally daft.

Saudi Arabia: backed Magnussen to beat his team mate (whom he started two slots higher than) and the Alpines, he ended up behind Hulkenberg. Not a silly bet, but didn’t come off. I also backed Perez each way, which did come off.

Australia was faintly hilarious as this was the blip in the early dominance of Red Bull. However, I didn’t know that ahead of time so I went with a safety first bet on Perez each way. He had been 2nd at the first two races and had each way odds of 14. While he started 3rd, this was still not bad (he had started 5th in Bahrain and 3rd in Saudi Arabia and finished 2nd at both of those). And yet he ended up going backwards despite a rare Verstappen DNF, finishing 5th behind both Ferraris and both McLarens.

It was probably around this point that I started to suspect the almost uniformly good luck I’d enjoyed last year had turned for the worse.

For Japan I adapted to this new state of affairs by splitting a stake to back Norris and Sainz each way. They lined up on the second row, in that order, but Red Bull returned to dominance with a 1-2. An almost comedic level of Murphy’s Law was bedevilling my betting.

A miracle happened in China, and I finished ahead, splitting one stake to back Piastri for a podium and Norris to win his group. A modest profit, but a nice change.

Business as usual occurred in Miami. Ironically, I did back Norris to win each way at 16 but I did not tip this (it was an early bet and I imagine my confidence was less than great). The official bet, and the one that counts, was Perez and Sainz each way, both at odds of 21 or more. They ended up 4th and 5th, while Norris took his first ever win.

At Imola I backed the number of classified finishers to be under 17.5 and all but one finished the race.

Monaco was a very special race as it was perhaps the most boring I’ve ever listened to (I had the radio rather than TV coverage for this one). I left halfway through to walk the dog and every single position stayed the same. I backed both Piastri and Sainz each way (perhaps remembering Leclerc’s curse, which kicked in a race late this year) and ended up slightly red.

Canada saw Ferrari’s form collapse from double podium to double DNF. I’d backed Russell each way, and he finished third, meaning the bet was red by half a second. It’s tempting to chalk this up to misfortune rather than a misjudgement, and yet my memory of the race is that he was less impressive than he might’ve been, so I’m adding this to the misjudgement tally.

And so to Spain, the final race in the impeccably awful start to the 2024 season. I backed Norris to win. Rarely for me this was a straight win bet, not each way, and he came 2nd.

Looking at the first 10 races and disregarding China (as it was green) and Saudi Arabia (essentially flat), I’d consider misjudgements to be Bahrain, Japan, Miami, Imola, Monaco, Canada, and Spain while bad luck happened for Australia. Contrary to what I felt at the time, it was my own fault most of that was red. I would say that many of the misjudgements were understandable, and a slice of good luck could’ve easily turned things around, but excepting the major blip of Australia (and at 14 each way that would’ve been rather nice) I was just getting things wrong.



Austria to Singapore

The following eight races, from Austria to Singapore, were a mix bag. Overall, I finished marginally ahead over this period but given how bad the start of the season was it did feel like the oil tanker was turning around.

Austria saw a pair of bets, and the Piastri podium came off, at 6.4. The unusual absence of a safety car and possibility of hedging did dilute this somewhat.

The UK result will haunt me for a long time because I had a great bet and a sodden hundredweight of dire luck. I backed Piastri to win, each way, both qualifying and the race. Qualifying as a misjudgement but he should’ve been top 2 bare minimum and probably won the race. He finished 4th, 12s off the win. Why bad luck? Because in soaking wet and worsening rain the McLaren team decided to make him do another lap on dry tyres instead of losing 7-10s in the pit stop double-stacking behind Norris. Piastri was almost caught by Norris on that lap. But for that, it’s near certain the 29 each way bet would’ve come off.

Hungary was lovely as it had a pair of bets and both came off. Piastri again (until the latter part of the season he was often underestimated and this made his odds temptingly long) to win each way at 7.5, which came off in the minor fashion. There was also a split stake to lead lap 1 on Piastri and Verstappen, the former getting it at 8, which is pretty nice even with a half stake.

I went for a similar lap 1 leader approach in Belgium, but it failed on that occasion possibly because it was Leclerc not Norris on pole. That said, Belgium can often see a quick overtake on the straight after Eau Rouge so while this is a misjudgement it wasn’t a daft one.

In the Netherlands my bad habit of getting stuck on one driver happened, as I backed Piastri each way at 7.5. To be fair, he did start 3rd but then went backwards. Misjudgement again.

I quite like group bets, and backed Stroll in Monza to beat the Alpines and Tsunoda. Easy to forget but Aston Martin was the best midfield runner this year. Stroll, however, decided to finish last of the classified runners. Impressive work given Sauber and Alpine were so poor.

Azerbaijan’s interesting, as the races can either be totally bonkers or rather sedate. It’s also been a happy hunting ground for Perez, who was showing his now traditional mid-season slump. But I backed Verstappen not to be classified. He was down in 6th, between the two Mercedes drivers, and Azerbaijan can sometimes see high attrition rates. Even though there were four DNFs (including Perez) this season, only one was not technically classified (Tsunoda). Once again, I’d call this a misjudgement.

And so to Singapore, a bit less boring than Monaco but not by much. My bet here was a Russell podium and while he did end up 4th that was 20s off the podium.

Considering the eight races from Austria to Singapore, I would attribute to misjudgement Belgium, the Netherlands, Monza, Azerbaijan, and Singapore, while Austria and Hungary benefited from good judgement, and the UK was incredibly unlucky. So, pretty unremarkable except for the apocalypse of woe that was McLaren’s strategy tomfoolery at Silverstone.



USA to Abu Dhabi

The first two (larger) parts of the season were dominated by bad bets punctuated by some better races. But from the USA to Abu Dhabi my judgement was sharper and my luck did an almost complete u-turn. Of these final half-dozen races, only one was red, and of eight tips offered six came off.

At the Circuit of the Americas I had three bets, and two came off. The Sainz pole bet was a failure but the each way to win bet on the Spaniard was green and the corresponding hedge (just on the win) was matched, making it even greener. My 3.6 on Colapinto to beat Albon also proved profitable. The Argentine had been very competitive and 3.6 on such a bet seemed too long.

Mexico was the sole red race in the final set, as Leclerc failed to finish in the top 2. While he was 3rd he was also 30s off 2nd place so this was a little irksome.

And then we come to Brazil. Verstappen was fantastic in the sprint so I backed him, despite a very lowly starting position, at 15 for the win. Unfortunately by the time I proofed the blog the odds had fallen to 13, so I used those when calculating profits. Nevertheless, a £120 return assuming a £10 stake is really very nice, and the fact this was well-judged was just the cherry on top of the cake. I can’t help but wonder how long the odds would have been on an Alpine double podium, though.

Las Vegas was next, and saw perhaps my most boring of bets. I backed Leclerc to beat Verstappen at 1.6. In my mind, this was a safety first obvious winner as Ferrari were great at Las Vegas last year when their car was less competitive. In the end, Leclerc just barely beat Verstappen. I’m going to put this one down to good luck because my assumption of pace was totally wrong.

In Qatar, I thought that Ferrari would confound the expectations of McLaren might and backed Leclerc for a podium. I was wrong, but once again favoured by fate as potential rivals Sainz and Norris were hamstrung by an unlucky puncture and a huge 10s stop and go penalty respectively. Once again, this was a fluke rather than cunning.

I should have learnt my Ferrari lesson here. I did not, and backed Sainz each way in Abu Dhabi. This was a poor judgement. But, contrary to earlier in the season (yes, UK, I mean you) luck can and will overturn judgement. Verstappen putting himself and Piastri to the back of the field at the first corner made this a fairly straightforward 2nd for Sainz and my daft idea was rewarded with a sprinkle of profit.

I would attribute the Circuit of the Americas and Brazil to good judgement, the Mexico failure to an understandable misjudgement, and Las Vegas, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi to good luck.

Summary of the Three Parts

In part 1, running from Bahrain to Spain, bets of £10 following my tips would have incurred a loss of £67.91 (no hedging difference).

In part 2, from Austria to Singapore, betting with hedging yielded a loss of £21.10, whereas betting without hedging led to a profit of £7.90.

In part 3, from the USA to Abu Dhabi, betting with hedging netted a profit of £153. Without hedging, this rose to £178.

Very much a season of three parts, from deeply red, to fairly flat, to delightfully green. Luck played a role here and there, aiding the final Ferrari bets but also denying a Piastri tip that really should have been green.

The overall season results were a profit of £63.99 with hedging, and £117.99 without it (as always, assuming £10 stakes). 

 

Titles

Not included are bets outside of the blog, including some title bets. Happily, I was green on both McLaren and Ferrari heading into the last few races. I backed McLaren fairly early, on the basis they have two good drivers and, sadly, Perez lagged behind. I forget precisely when I backed Ferrari but I think it was around USA-Mexico when they scored a bundle of points and the title became an unlikely but plausible prospect.

I also had a bet on Norris at 29, which was long enough to hedge and finish slightly ahead when Verstappen ended up winning. Less cunning was my bet on Piastri to be winner without Verstappen. The Aussie had some strong performances but seemed a step behind Norris in the latter half of the season.

Interestingly, this means that my general feeling of bad luck all the time was perhaps mostly wrong. I think a lot of small things probably were unhelpful but the real slice of bad luck happened in Silverstone, when McLaren’s strategic blunder buggered Piastri’s prospects. And I did get a few little nuggets of good luck at the final races.



Morris Dancer


PS Tiny bit of housekeeping: I’ve renamed the blog from the very off-topic enormo-haddock to MorrisF1. Future fiddling with the layout and other things might happen in the near future too.