F1 2024 Title Fight

 [Note: this is the script plus additional graphics for the first Undercutters podcast. Audio can be found here].

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the first Undercutters podcast, hosted by me, Morris. We start at the end of a fantastic Formula 1 season, one of the very best of recent times. There’s a lot to look back at and we’re going to start at the most obvious place: the title battle between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris.

Verstappen absolutely dominated the 2023 season, crushing all opposition to win by a comedically large 290 points. His next closest challenger was his team mate, Sergio Perez, who had just 285 points, less than half Verstappen’s total of 575. The closest non-Red Bull driver was Lewis Hamilton on 234 points.

 

 
In 2023, there was only one race that Red Bull didn’t win, when Carlos Sainz claimed the victory for Ferrari in Singapore. Perez won in Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan and every other race was Verstappen’s. While neutrals and fans of other teams and drivers might have hoped 2024 would be closer, the consensus heading into the season was that Verstappen was a strong favourite for the title.

And the early races of 2024 supported this prediction. Verstappen picked up right where he left off. In the first five races he won in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and China. At all of these, Perez was also on the podium, 3rd in China behind Norris but otherwise 2nd to Verstappen. However, there were two early indicators the season could change.

The first was Australia. In between the races of Arabia and the Far East, this race weekend saw Verstappen qualify on pole and Perez, after a grid penalty, in 6th. This was not not too unusual for the Mexican driver in early races and it seemed the result would be a normal Red Bull double podium. However, in the race Sainz seemed faster and went on to win. While Verstappen retired with an engine failure, Sainz had seemed to have a real shot of winning even had the Dutchman finished the race. Perez could only manage 5th, with Leclerc and Norris sharing the podium with Sainz. The three men on the podium were separated by under six seconds.

Which brings us to the other glimmer of hope for a more competitive season: the timing gaps. The time between Verstappen and the drivers in 2nd and 3rd was under 21 seconds at three of his four early wins, the exception being Bahrain when it was just over 25 seconds. That’s still a sizeable margin, but the same gaps in 2023 (not including China which was not on the calendar) were 36, 20, and 38 seconds. Note that Perez won in Saudi Arabia in 2023 so the gap there is between him and Alonso, with Verstappen 5 seconds behind his team mate.

The second phase of the title battle then began in the sixth race: Miami. This was Lando Norris’ first win, 7.6 seconds ahead of Verstappen and 9.9 seconds ahead of Leclerc. The fourth, fifth, and sixth of Perez, Sainz, and Hamilton were covered by two seconds. A safety car did play into Norris’ hands but he was able to build a gap over Verstappen who appeared powerless to stop it, and he was barely ahead of Leclerc.

From this point on the pace advantage Red Bull had enjoyed vanished. Later in the season they often seemed the third or fourth fastest car, but during this second phase they were still able to compete for wins most of the time. This was due to two perfectly intersecting trends: McLaren and Ferrari developed their cars very well throughout the season, and Red Bull, unusually, struggled with this. This difficulty was not aided by the internal conflict of the team, which eventually had consequences including legendary designer Adrian Newey leaving to join Aston Martin.

Imola followed Miami, and while Verstappen won he was less than a second ahead of Norris with Leclerc less than eight seconds behind. Perez was only 8th, the lowest result for any driver from the top 4 teams.

In Monaco, Red Bull had a race to forget. While Charles Leclerc finally banished his home race curse to secure the win, with Piastri 2nd and Sainz 3rd, Verstappen could only manage a lowly 6th and Perez did not even finish the race. At this stage, Ferrari were looking very good at extracting the maximum possible at every race weekend. While not always the fastest, they were being very efficient, from taking advantage of the Australian opportunity to dominating in Monaco. Could the Constructors’ or even the Drivers’ title be on for Ferrari?

Perhaps, but Canada was a huge step backwards for Ferrari and a reassuring race for Red Bull. Amid tricky, wet conditions, Verstappen returned to winning ways. During the course of the race it appeared rivals were faster at various times but the reigning champion did very well to keep both Norris and Russell behind him. Ferrari, meanwhile, fell off a cliff. Sainz and Leclerc both suffered DNFs, after Ferrari employed the brave strategy of sending Leclerc out into the rain on a set of hard tyres. Even had he finished the race, points were going to be minimal at best. Perez crashed out, adding to his DNF tally for the year. 

It is worth mentioning that Canada saw a few safety cars, and that one in particular favoured Verstappen to the disadvantage of Norris, who might otherwise have won. This was almost exactly the reverse of Miami.

Spain marks the final race in the second phase of the 2024 F1 season, which was a competitive period that still saw Red Bull win most of the races. Verstappen started on the front row but behind pole-sitter Norris, yet come the chequered flag the positions were reversed. Just 2.2s separated them. The podium was completed by Hamilton, who was about a pit stop further back, with Russell and Leclerc within five seconds of him. Perez finished down in 8th, almost a minute behind his team mate.

At this stage the season was still very much Verstappen’s to lose, but individual races could be closely contested. However, Spain was the last race the Dutchman would win for quite some time. This period also saw Perez’s form collapse from capable wingman to being the slowest of men driving for top teams. Sad to see for the Mexican and his fans, this opened the door for both McLaren and Ferrari to try and claim the Constructors’ title. The Drivers’ title, however, still seemed very much to be in Verstappen’s hands.

In fact, at this point Verstappen had amassed 219 points and had won seven of the first 10 races. This isn’t too far off the 255 he won in the same number of races in 2023 and was a long way ahead of any potential rivals. Leclerc had 148 points and Norris 150. Both were driving well and had good cars but neither seemed likely to be able to put up a title challenge.

 

 

In the Constructors’, Red Bull sat on a comfortable 330. This compared to Ferrari on 270 and McLaren on 237. The advantage for Red Bull over Ferrari was 60 points, less than the 71 point advantage Verstappen had over Leclerc. The balanced partnership of the Prancing Horse was looking like a potential contender for this title. McLaren were not too far behind but Piastri was lagging a little. However, the Aussie would soon embark on a series of great results. 

After Spain there were just four races left until the mid-season break, which happened between the Belgian and Dutch Grands Prix. McLaren seemed to have the fastest car and Ferrari were being highly competent, excepting Canada. And then 2024 threw a curve ball.

Austria saw Verstappen and Norris battling for the lead, the McLaren clearly faster but the Red Bull defending very robustly. Contact was made and it seemed innocuous at first glance but ruined the races of both men. The collision led to both suffering punctures, with Norris retiring and Verstappen tumbling down the order. George Russell inherited the win for Mercedes, a couple of seconds ahead of Piastri, with Sainz following close behind. And so 2024 saw a fifth man and fourth team become a winner.

Surprising no-one, the British Grand Prix was wet. Very wet. At differing times during the race the Mercedes or McLaren seemed faster, and Verstappen was also in the mix. In qualifying, Mercedes had claimed the front row, Russell ahead of Hamilton, while Norris and Vestappen were relegated to the second row. Russell had enjoyed a slice of luck in Austria but the karmic balance was immediately restored as he had to retire due to a water system problem. This allowed Hamilton to win the race, his first victory for years.

A large part of this result was due to his intelligent pit stop, one lap earlier than Norris, and McLaren screwing up strategy. To be fair, the papaya cars were the only ones close enough that double-stacking would be necessary. This involves one car waiting while the other has a pit stop. Instead, McLaren decided to keep Piastri out for another lap. In normal conditions, this would not affect the outcome too much. The problem was conditions were far from normal at this stage. The rain was falling heavily and getting worse. Piastri lost a huge amount of time on his lap, with Norris getting close to catching him by the time the Australian finally crawled into the pits. This transformed a McLaren 1-2 into a 1-6 on track. Hamilton was homing in on Norris and several drivers, including him, Verstappen, and Piastri, boxed for dry tyres as conditions improved. Norris stayed out one lap longer. This ultimately led to Hamilton winning ahead of Verstappen and Norris, with Piastri 4th. The Aussie was fast enough to have won had he not been forced to spend another lap out in the rain. Norris was also disadvantaged by his late stop as the track dried.

For much of the season, McLaren had the fastest car. But strategic errors like this cost them unnecessarily. The timing of Norris’ final pit stop was a mistake, albeit a forgivable one. The decision to keep Piastri out on a wet track with dry tyres while all around him boxed was foolish. And it would not be the last bad strategy call that would give McLaren fans a headache. Meanwhile, Verstappen was driving well and Red Bull were executing his strategy competently. At the other end of the grid, Perez finished in 17th, 2 laps off the pace.

How does a team mess up a 1-2? McLaren proved it’s possible in Hungary. Norris and Piastri claimed the front row in qualifying, narrowly beating Verstappen. Come the race start, Norris lost out to both Piastri and Verstappen. Later, he fought his way back to second. For strategic reasons to try and stay ahead of Verstappen, McLaren opted to pit Norris first, thus undercutting their leading driver. Piastri duly emerged behind Norris and some pathetic pleading on the radio was necessary to guilt trip the Briton into giving up the win to Piastri. Not an ideal way for the Australian to take a maiden victory. Hamilton completed the podium, having fended off an aggressively grumpy Verstappen, who ended up 5th. Leclerc was in 4th.

We saw another 1-2 failure in the very next race, which was the Belgian Grand Prix. Russell drove well to fend off Hamilton by half a second as they crossed the line. It was a great result for the Mercedes team and an exciting finish for neutrals, especially as Piastri was only another second down the road. However, Russell ended up disqualified for having an underweight car and Hamilton inherited the win. This promoted Piastri to 2nd and Leclerc to 3rd. Verstappen ended up 4th, one place ahead of Norris. It was precisely this sort of outcome, consistently finishing just ahead of his closest rival, that enabled Verstappen to stay in the driving seat for the title. Piastri’s result proved a better points haul was possible and the McLaren was swift enough to deliver it, but Norris was struggling to finish ahead of Verstappen sufficiently often.

In the four race weekends immediately before the mid-season interval, Verstappen scored 58 points. Norris scored 49 points. The lead had grown, despite the Red Bull not being the better car. In the same period, Leclerc’s challenge had fallen off with just 29 points scored, while Piastri had scored 80 points, as had Lewis Hamilton. The very competitiveness of the individual race weekends meant the top drivers were taking points off each other and enabled Verstappen to maintain his lead. From one race weekend to another it was fantastic to watch with multiple drivers and teams faster at different circuits, but mathematically it played into Verstappen’s hands.

After the mid-season break, F1 returned with the Dutch Grand Prix. Verstappen’s home race had seen one of his many victories in 2023, but 2024 was quite different. While he did finish 2nd, this was behind title rival Norris, who finished a pit stop ahead and enjoyed a dominant performance during the weekend. Leclerc completed the podium, ahead of Piastri and Sainz. Perez did finish in 6th, but overall both Norris and McLaren gained in the title races.

The Italian Grand Prix at Monza is an old school circuit, and the McLarens lined up on the front row. However, in the race Leclerc proved to have superior tyre management and was able to make a single stop work while most others had to make two. This cunning plan secured him a win, to the delight of the local crowds. Piastri was only a couple of seconds behind, with Norris a similar distance further back. McLaren had been thwarted by Ferrari’s smart strategy. Verstappen had a race to forget, finishing in 6th.

Azerbaijan is a strange old circuit, as it’s mostly similar to Monaco but also has a massive straight. Races can sometimes be bonkers, especially on restarts. It’s also been a place where Perez has shown great pace in the past, and the Mexican really needed to recover his form. Unfortunately for Perez, he and Sainz collided late on and both failed to finish. Leclerc, meanwhile, qualified on pole ahead of Piastri, but a daring and brilliant move by the Aussie took the lead and he was able to fend off the Monegasque to claim another win. Russell joined them on the podium. Norris was 4th ahead of Verstappen in 5th, but this was only a 3 point advantage for the McLaren driver. To be fair, Norris had fought back from 15th on the grid having been eliminated early in qualifying due to misfortune. But this was another example of how more points could have been cut from Verstappen’s lead.

After Azerbaijan, McLaren had 476 points to Red Bull’s 456, and Ferrari were on 425. With momentum entirely on the papaya team’s side, the question was whether Ferrari would overtake Red Bull. And with two quick drivers and a car to match, it seemed destined to happen. Had Perez done better when Red Bull was still a race-winning car, the picture would have been quite different.

At the same time, Vestappen had 313 points to Norris on 254 and Leclerc on 235. With seven race weekends left to go, Norris had to average 9 points over Verstappen each time. Despite the great car and usually excellent driving, (poor starts aside), this was a tall order.

The Singapore Grand Prix has tripped up dominant teams before. In 2023 it was the only race that Red Bull failed to win, thanks to Carlos Sainz. And, given Red Bull’s weakness at Monaco in 2024, many people, including me, fully expected this to be an awful weekend for Verstappen. But that was not the case. The Dutchman qualified in 2nd, right behind Norris. And while the pair finished that way, this meant the gain of 7 points Norris had made was below the 9 point average he needed if he wanted the title. Norris was impressively quick, crossing the line over 20 seconds before Verstappen, but you don’t get points for a large margin of victory. To make matters worse, this was one circuit where a terrible Verstappen result seemed a credible possibility. If Norris couldn’t make a huge gain in Singapore, where could he?

After a weird four week break we headed over to the Circuit of the Americas in the United States, an entertaining old school circuit that can provide some great racing. Norris and Verstappen lined up on the front row with Sainz and Leclerc right behind them. These four ended up in the opposite order at the chequered flag, Leclerc leading Sainz in a Ferrari 1-2, with Verstappen joining them on the podium. A Norris pole had eventually led to him losing ground in the title race. Off the line Norris got passed by both Ferraris and Verstappen. Late in the race, he suffered a penalty which cost him the podium to Verstappen. The penalty situation would get a bit fraught and controversial as the season continued, but at the front Leclerc and Sainz both opened up large gaps to fully deserve their strong results. After a bit of time in the shadows, Ferrari were once again enjoying a dominant weekend. Further down the order, the Mercedes was looking on a knife edge, with Hamilton having a very uncharacteristic spin and DNF.

The Mexican Grand Prix saw a great result for Ferrari, with Sainz winning and Leclerc 3rd. Norris was up in 2nd, while the much-penalised Verstappen could only manage a paltry 6th behind both Mercedes. The penalties arose from a pair of moves on Norris, both deemed worthy of attracting a 10 second penalty, adding a total of 20 seconds to Verstappen’s race. But even with all that, Norris only closed the title gap by 10 points, highlighting the difficulty the McLaren driver faced trying to overturn Verstappen’s sizeable lead. The gap had fallen to 47 points, but with only four race weekends left that meant an average of a 12 point advantage was needed by Norris.

Perhaps more concerning for McLaren was that their lead in the Constructors’ over Ferrari was just 29 points after a couple of very good results for the Prancing Horse. It was conceivable that McLaren, despite having the best average pace over the season, might end up with neither title.

Just a week after Mexico we had the treat of visiting Interlagos. The Brazilian Grand Prix is perhaps my favourite and can be fantastic in the wet or the dry. And the weekend was very wet. Verstappen had good pace in the sprint but had an atrocious qualifying which was exacerbated by a 5 place grid penalty for new parts, meaning he started the race in 17th. McLaren, meanwhile, had a 1-2 in the sprint and Norris had pole (ahead of Russell, with Piastri down in 8th). Come race day, it was tipping it down. The start was delayed when Stroll went off on the formation lap then drove into a gravel trap. 

 When it got going, we were treated to a wet weather masterclass. While Norris and Russell battled for the lead, Verstappen was passing left, right, and centre. Whereas rookies were struggling amid the sodden track, the Red Bull driver never put a foot wrong. Fortune also smiled on him, as the timing of a red flag following a Colapinto crash was bad for Norris and Russell but perfect for Verstappen. And not just him. The Alpines were flying in terrible conditions, and Verstappen led the unlikely pair of Ocon and Gasly to the podium. Norris was only 6th. Not only was this Verstappen’s most impressive win of the season, it effectively sealed the title. The Brazilian result put Verstappen on 393 points with Norris on 331 and Leclerc on 307. Mathematically, Norris could yet win but it would require Verstappen to take a five week holiday.

After a three week break, F1 arrived in Las Vegas. It’s an interesting track, mostly due to the very late start time which means the cold temperature leads to low track grip. This can shuffle the pecking order and that certainly happened in 2024. Russell had a perfect weekend, qualifying on pole and cruising to victory in the race. He was briefly challenged by Leclerc but the Ferrari driver damaged his tyres so much it compromised his race. Hamilton, meanwhile, fluffed qualifying to start in 10th, but was like lightning in the race, passing others with ease to finish 2nd just 7 seconds behind his team mate. Sainz completed the podium, finishing one place ahead of Leclerc. For McLaren, it was a rare weekend of being genuinely slower than most of their opposition, with Norris in 6th leading Piastri, who finished 7th.

In Vegas, Verstappen concluded his title defence to make it four in a row. After a period of initial dominance, he had successfully done enough with the lead he’d built up to retain the title. This was helped by a few factors. Numerous rival teams and drivers took points off each other and stopped one strong contender hoovering up wins. Verstappen’s main challenger, Norris, developed a bad habit of starting poorly. On occasion, McLaren made strategic errors. But the critical factor was Verstappen himself dragging the Red Bull into positions and points others would have struggled to achieve. The 2024 title is perhaps his most impressive.

But even after Verstappen confirmed his status as champion, there were still two races and the Constructors’ title to decide.

Qatar was the penultimate stop on the F1 tour in 2024. The DRS zone had been shortened and as it led to the only real overtaking spot this did reduce passing. But the race will be remembered for some dodgy decisions by officials that altered the race substantially. The first of these was in qualifying. Verstappen beat Russell in a closely contested battle for pole. It was great to watch. And then Verstappen received a bizarre 1 place grid penalty. The transgression? He impeded Russell, which sounds fair enough. Except both men were on out laps. Nobody was setting a time. This swapped around the front row and was highly dubious. And that was just the start.

Come the race, Verstappen immediately passed Russell, and Norris soon got ahead of the Mercedes as well. Verstappen and Norris were closely matched and pulling away from the field. The race had numerous safety car periods but the critical one was very odd and due to poor decision-making by officials. A wing mirror fell off Albon’s car and was on the main straight, off the racing line but right where someone trying to pass would be. Double waved yellows rather than a Virtual Safety Car were put out. Norris sped under these and got a stop-and-go penalty, the standard punishment for such a misdeed. But then Bottas went over the mirror. Debris was everywhere, Sainz and Hamilton got punctures, and a full safety car came out. A VSC or even full safety car to enable to mirror to be collected was the obvious choice yet it never happened. In the end, Verstappen was the deserved winner, Leclerc got 2nd and Piastri 3rd. Norris did make a mistake but if the VSC had been put out it never would’ve happened. He ended up 10th. This meant that, going into the final race, Ferrari still had an outside shot of taking the Constructors’.

The season ended in Abu Dhabi, and the grid was set up nicely for McLaren with Norris and Piastri on the front row. Better yet for their title hopes, Sainz was 3rd on the grid but penalties and a poor qualifying had Leclerc starting in 19th. It was very hard to see how Ferrari could wrest victory from the jaws of defeat. And then the first lap happened. Verstappen tried a clumsy move on Piastri and tagged him, sending both men tumbling down the order. Norris actually started well to retain the lead but Sainz was up into 2nd. Bad news for McLaren but with Leclerc starting so lowly everything would be fine. Except Leclerc had an astonishing first lap and passed 11 cars immediately. He then set about hunting down the top chaps and pulled himself up to 3rd. Piastri was recovering but would only get minor points, if that. Norris could still win the race and title for McLaren but if they botched his pit stop or he made a mistake Ferrari would pass them in both contests.

Norris was under pressure but he did not crack. He drove flawlessly to win the last race of the year and secure McLaren’s first Constructors’ title since 1998. The team had not made things easy for themselves at times, and Ferrari had proved a stern test, but in the end McLaren had done it.

McLaren ended the season with 666 points to Ferrari’s 652. Red Bull were third, with just 589 points despite Verstappen winning the Drivers’ title. 

 

 
I made much of the first phase of the season, the initial five phases that were largely dominated by Red Bull. But what happens to the standings if those races are removed? In the first five races McLaren scored 96 points, Ferrari 151 points, and Red Bull 195 points. This would not have altered who won the Constructors’.

For the drivers, Verstappen scored 110 points in the first five races, Norris 58 points, and Leclerc 76 points. That’s a 52 point benefit to Norris, if those five races are axed. However, Verstappen won by 63 points, so even with that early quintet being removed from consideration, the Red Bull driver would still have won the title this year.


Thank you all for listening. If you enjoyed this please do share, comment, and like this content on social media. This helps a lot, especially as the podcast is just starting.

If you want to get in touch you can find me at MorrisF1 on Twitter, or at morrisf1.blogspot.com. I’ll be putting up some graphs using the stats from this podcast to highlight how the season developed as the races went on.

Next up, I’ll look back at the very intriguing midfield battle between RB, Haas, Alpine for 6th.


Morris

 

PS Reminder the audio can be found by clicking this link.