F1 2025 Dutch Grand Prix Preview and Predictions (Undercutters Ep33 transcript)

Hello, everyone. After the summer break we return to the McLaren duel that is the 2025 Formula 1 season. I’m your host Morris, and this is the Undercutters podcast. As always, you can find me on Twitter or Blue Sky as MorrisF1, or read the transcripts, and admire the lovely graphs, at morrisf1.blogspot.com.

Next up we have the Dutch Grand Prix, and I’ve got to admit this is not one of my favourites due to the difficulty passing (a problem at many circuits, it must be said). Will Norris maintain his momentum? Will Verstappen enjoy a home victory? And will Leclerc be so annoyed he has another radio rant so long it goes off the screen?

Quick Look at Zandvoort 00m54s

The Dutch Grand Prix is held at Zandvoort, which is 4.259km long and gives us 72 laps in a race. It was actually first created back in 1948, the same year as Silverstone. The circuit is fast and undulating, and if there weren’t dirty air and such large cars it might be rather good. As it is, the track’s not ideal for racing, in my view.

From pole to the first braking point is 199m, which is pretty short. The safety car can play a major role, and two shafted Hamilton’s excellent hopes of a win a few years ago for Mercedes.

Pirelli’s stats have it as a 5/5 for tyre stress but otherwise mostly middle of the road. Traction, evolution, lateral loads and downforce are indicated as 4/5, otherwise it’s a 3 across the board.

The Last Dutch Grand Prix 1m59s

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At the last Dutch Grand Prix pole was held by Norris ahead of Verstappen and Piastri. Russell and Perez followed with Leclerc in 6th.

While there was a mix of tyres at the start the majority were on the medium and looked set for a single stop.

Despite the short run both Verstappen and Russell made up ground at the expense of the McLarens, the Dutchman claiming the lead from Norris while Russell passed Piastri. Not only that, but Leclerc got 5th from Perez, which does make it seem like starting on the even side of the track was pretty handy, unless it was just a coincidence that the top three drivers on the odd side all started badly.

On lap 16 Norris closed up and got past Verstappen, and by lap 24, the McLaren had built up a 4s gap over the Red Bull, which was sliding around quite a bit. The next few laps saw Leclerc and the Mercedes box but the McLarens and Verstappen stayed out a little longer. Verstappen pitted first, followed by Norris, allowing Piastri to temporarily inherit the lead.

Lap 33 saw Piastri finally pit, swapping medium for hard as others had done and going down to 5th, behind Norris, Verstappen, Leclerc, and Russell. Fresher rubber enabled Piastri to close up the gap to Russell then get past, before setting off in pursuit of Leclerc and the podium.

A little further back, Sainz’s Ferrari was all over the back of Perez and duly got ahead to claim 6th.

Towards the end of the race Norris stretched his legs, and had a healthy 15s advantage over Verstappen. About 10 laps were left when Piastri was close enough to cause Leclerc problems, but despite the McLaren’s speed it was the Monegasque who came out on top, successfully defending to finish on the podium.

Norris had the win, over 22s ahead of Verstappen, and Leclerc had done well to retain his place in 3rd. Piastri was 4th, ahead of Sainz and Perez. Russell led Hamilton in 7th and 8th for Mercedes, with Gasly and Alonso completing the top 10.

It seems there wasn’t the same problem for drivers on the odd side of the grid in 2023, so the 2024 start was perhaps just a coincidence of numerous drivers starting poorly on that side. Passing’s hard, but not impossible, and a substantial tyre or pace offset can make it happen. But, as Leclerc showed, a slower car can keep a faster one behind if that difference isn’t big enough.

How the season looks going into the F1 2025 Zandvoort GP 4m45s

Going into the Dutch Grand Prix the title battle is very much a two horse race between Piastri and Norris. Piastri currently has a 9 point lead and his odds on Ladbrokes are, at the time of writing, 1.6 to Norris’ 2.2.

The Constructors’ title is so sewn up you can’t even back McLaren any more, but there is a market for the winner without McLaren. This has odds of 1.16 for Ferrari and 5 for Mercedes, with Red Bull out at 13. Ferrari and Mercedes have been close for most of the season, and the Mercedes shifting to an older but better suspension might actually be enough to see them close the gap and overtake Ferrari. But both Hamilton and Antonelli have been off the boil lately, so that could also affect who gets the runner-up spot.

The midfield, by contrast, is incredibly tight and has become more so with the upgrades for Sauber and Aston Martin. This has made them viable contenders for best of the rest, and provide some competition for Williams. Alpine, however, have some work to do if they want to avoid being last.

Predictions for the Dutch Grand Prix 5m56s

My predictions have been reasonably good lately, so let’s hope that continues. It’s not very original but I’m backing Norris for the pole and win. He did very well here last year and had good momentum ahead of the summer break. If he maintains that form he stands a good shot of starting and finishing in 1st place.

I’ve put Leclerc down for 2nd. My reasoning is that he’s very good at qualifying, and passing here can be rough. He also did very well here last year. And if there is a sudden safety car it’s more likely that McLaren than Ferrari will suffer from double-stacking.

Piastri I’ve put all the way down in 3rd. He wasn’t awful here last year but I do think he’s better at some other tracks.

For midfield points I’ve gone for two chaps I don’t normally mention here: Lawson and Bearman. Lawson’s recent form has been very good and he’s scored quite a few points. Bearman has driven pretty well and has suffered some misfortune. Hopefully that means his luck will be better this weekend.

For my extra prediction I’m backing Verstappen to finish outside the top 5. The Red Bull looked very ropey last time out, and last year at Zandvoort it was sliding too. I might be wrong, but the decline of Red Bull might mean the Dutchman will struggle at his home race.

F1 News 7m20s

F1 news.

We almost didn’t have any this time, but you can thank RacingNews365 for a not-officially-confirmed-but-probably-true story regarding Cadillac. There have been a few drivers mentioned for this team, which will debut in 2026, and two of the veterans often included are Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez.

According to RacingNews365, Bottas has been signed for the team. He brings a huge amount of experience, including at Mercedes in their heyday, with a total of 246 Grands Prix, 10 wins, and 67 podium finishes.

Bottas is currently the Mercedes reserve driver and hasn’t been shy about his desire to get back to a race seat. Assuming the Bottas news is kosher, it’s not clear whether the second seat will go to fellow veteran Perez or if the team will opt for a rookie instead. My own guess is that they will go for Perez.

The Mexican’s very experienced and a good driver. He also had a lot of sponsorship, and that never hurts.

There’s been a lot of rumour about this in the last few days so the Cadillac driver decisions may be confirmed one way or the other between the time of recording and publication of this podcast.

Thank you all for listening. The next podcast will both look back at the Dutch Grand Prix and ahead to the Italian Grand Prix in Monza. I imagine it’ll be rather longer than this dinky-sized episode.



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