Hungarian Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

Well, I didn’t feel brave but if you did kudos for backing Leclerc on 13 for pole. Gosh.

The first session was not great for Albon, last and outqualified by a faster team mate (who escaped to Q2). The same thing happened to all those eliminated, who were Tsunoda, Gasly, Ocon, Hulkenberg, and Albon. Things were very close, though.

In Q2 we lost some big names. Fastest out was Bearman, and right behind him was Hamilton (who has more poles here than the rest of the field combined). Sainz ended up 13th, ahead of Colapinto and Antonelli, who has having a torrid time of late.

Then Q3 decided to spring a surprise and Leclerc reminded us all he’s the best qualifier on the grid with a stunning pole lap. He was right ahead of Piastri, and Norris was relegated to third on the grid, alongside Russell.

The third row is Aston Martin territory, Alonso leading Stroll, and the car’s looking tasty this weekend. They could be on for major points. Bortoleto continues to impress with 7th on the grid (12 places above Hulkenberg) with Verstappen next to him. Definitely damage control for the Dutchman. And on the fifth row we’ve got the Racing Bulls, Lawson ahead of Hadjar. The Kiwi’s been doing well lately.

So, why the turn around? Cloud cover and cooler temperatures seemed to rob McLaren of their crushing FP3 pace advantage, especially helping Mercedes and Ferrari. Leclerc put together a perfect lap to snatch victory when both the McLaren drivers failed to improve on their second Q3 runs. In the end, it was super close, with just over a tenth covering the top 6. 

At the time of writing, there are no grid penalties, and a low (under 20%) chance of rain. It’s looking dry and sunny. This may help out the McLarens, and hinder the Mercedes.

Early Betting Thoughts

Leclerc, win

Lawson, points

Alonso/Stroll, podium

Passing can be rough in Hungary and we saw Russell win from pole at Canada with odds of 4.6. I think in the heat he might find it tricky, but in the cool he might retain the lead. A problem for Leclerc is having both McLarens right behind him, meaning the team can easily split strategy… unless the title battle means they’re more focused on each other and end up doing very similar things or end up making contact. The very difficulty of passing means that if Norris gets the chance to get ahead of Piastri he’s bound to take it, or try to. Leclerc’s odds here are 4 on Ladbrokes (which allows each way betting) and 5.2 on Betfair (where you can hedge). If I were to back this, I’d go for the 5.2 and set up a hedge at evens, but I’m undecided at first glance.

Lawson’s had a good old run of late, with two solid points finishes in the last four races. The downside is that the other two races were DNFed. He has odds of evens on Betfair and 1.75 on Ladbrokes to score, and I think those odds are just too long.

The Aston Martin is looking very good here and it’s far from inconceivable either one could end up on the podium. Ladbrokes have a 5 special on one or both ending up on the podium, but you can back them individually on Betfair at 7.4 or 20. My concern is that’ll get left behind either by superior Ferrari-McLaren race pace or being bottled up behind Russell potentially.

Perusing the Markets

So, a few interesting things but nothing fantastic. As is tradition, I browsed the markets.

Stroll, win group 1, 3

Group 1 this time is Stroll versus Bortoleto, Lawson, Hadjar, and Antonelli. Antonelli starts far back in 15th, and while the others are in the top 10, Stroll’s ahead of them. If he holds his place off the line the Aston Martin is fundamentally quick this weekend. He was just over a tenth off pole, and more than two-tenths ahead of Bortoleto (who tends to do better in qualifying than races). Even in a five man group, I think this is value.



For the Hungarian Grand Prix I’ve backed Stroll to win group 1 at 3.1 (boosted). I’ve also backed Lawson (on Betfair) at evens to score.



The race is at 2pm UK time.



Morris

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