Dutch Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

Qualifying was close and competitive. At the front, this was only between the McLarens, but the rest of the field was much tighter.

Lance Stroll didn’t delight his engineering team. The mechanics worked overnight to put his car together after a practice crash, then he immediately crashing in qualifying. While he was able to get it back to the pits, it had to be retired. Bearman could’ve gone faster but made an error and ended up going out, as did Ocon. Colapinto was the fastest man eliminated in Q1, right ahead of Hulkenberg, who continues to be outqualified by Bortoleto.

Q2 was very tight indeed, but we said goodbye to Antonelli, Tsunoda, Bortoleto, Gasly, and Albon. Yes, Albon was the slowest one, rather surprisingly as both he and the Williams had been looking good. His tyres (perhaps warmup) were not there for the final, critical lap. If there’s a safety car or strange situation tomorrow then he has the pace to make up ground in clear air.

All weekend long it had looked like Norris’ pole to lose. He did lose it, but only by twelve-thousandths of a second. On the second runs, he was eight-tenths faster than Piastri. Unfortunately for him, the second runs were slower, and Piastri beat his team mate and title rival to the punch.

They were both a quarter of a second ahead of Verstappen, himself a similar margin ahead of Isack Hadjar. After being recently outshone by Lawson, the Frenchman had a fantastic qualifying to stick his Racing Bull in 4th.

Russell, Leclerc, and Hamilton followed, with Lawson in 8th. While not a match for Hadjar, the Kiwi still had a very good session. Sainz ended up 9th, perhaps disappointing for Williams, and Alonso could only manage 10th. With hopes of having challenged the teams directly behind McLaren, I imagine the elder Spaniard is also the more rueful.

It’s probably going to be dry but there has been rain bobbling about on the forecast so it’s not impossible that a spot of precipitation might show up. One stop is likely due to passing difficulty.

Early Betting Thoughts

Hadjar, top 6/podium

Verstappen, win each way

Hadjar had a splendid qualifying to slide into 4th. Passing’s hard and if he can keep his place at the start he may well stay within the top 6. However, his odds are barely above evens, so while this is a credible outcome I’m not too enamoured with the price on offer.

Verstappen was best of the rest and seemed the only man with close to a chance of challenging the McLarens in qualifying. It wasn’t to be but he did put himself in 3rd. If the McLarens make a mistake, clash on-track, or have to double stack and end up compromised, he’s in prime position to take advantage. I do think him being in the top 2 requires a failure or problem for one of the McLarens, though (or rainfall but I don’t think we’re getting any). His each way odds are 13… which may be worth considering.

Perusing the Markets

As taught by the apostle Peter, I then browsed the markets for value.


Hamilton to beat Leclerc, 2.6

Hamilton looked good through qualifying. Yes, he was ultimately one place behind his team mate, by half a tenth, but his pace is good enough that if he gets ahead at the start or through pit stops I think he’ll stay there. 2.6 to make up a single place is not bad.


All PiaNorVer to be top 3, 1.9

I don’t like short odds bets… but unless something dramatic happens (and Zandvoort can be a place where it doesn’t) then I think the top 3 are nailed on to stay there. Still, 1.9 on three chaps is a bit on the low side.


Under 17.5 classified finishers, 1.95

The last three races here have had 0, 3, and 2 non-classified drivers, so the odds are about right. But, after a summer break drivers may be rusty and making a mistake, as Lance Stroll has discovered twice, will get punished in Zandvoort. Bit 50/50 but given the potential for clashes at the sharp end as well as a feisty midfield, and drivers coming back after some time off, it may be worth backing.


Lance Stroll not to be classified, 6.5

He’s crashed twice, both of which meant he couldn’t continue practice/qualifying. And there’s a chance of his Mercedes engine going wonky. That said, Stroll has no DNFs in racing this year, bizarrely. I’m still pretty tempted.



Anyway, nothing hugely stands out to me. My guess is this will be a race with relatively little change, but the start could see some collisions and crashes. If they get away cleanly, I think the McLarens and Verstappen will not be challenged at the sharp end, and if it’s formation flying then Hadjar could be a very handy roadblock for the top three on the grid.

So I’m backing 1.95 (boosted) on Piastri, Norris, and Verstappen to all be on the podium. If you’ve got a free bet, or want a smaller side bet, then Verstappen to win (14 boosted) or Stroll not classified (7 boosted) are what I’d recommend, but for the ‘official’ records the podium bet is the only one that will count.




Morris