American Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
The sprint race was marked by two events. On lap 1, a collision had knock-on effects which caused both McLarens and Alonso to DNF, and shunted Hulkenberg way down the order, out of the points. After the safety car came out, and left again, things were fairly sedate, with passing proving tricky, although Hamilton did manage to get ahead of Leclerc.
Later, Stroll clumsily smashed into Ocon with an ill-considered overtake attempt which took out both men, and brought out the safety car for the second time. Under this finish the race would finish.
Verstappen had a lovely time, getting all 8 points while McLaren scored 0. Russell got 2nd place with Sainz in 3rd. Behind the Spaniard, Ferrari recovered from woeful qualifying to 4th and 5th, Hamilton leading Leclerc, with Albon, Tsunoda (who made up 11 places), and Antonelli finishing the points positions. Bearman had been in 8th but continued his one-man mission to disprove British bias by getting a 10s penalty for defending against Antonelli off-track. Due to the safety car finish, this bumped him down from 8th to 15th (last of those still running).
And then we had annoyingly late qualifying.
Q1 saw a red flag when Hadjar lost control and smashed into the wall. His car looked something of a handful, although a few other drivers did have some difficulties here and there, implying the wind was being less than helpful. He won’t start last, however, as Stroll’s 5 place grid penalty for smashing into Ocon gives him that honour. Also out were Bortoleto, Ocon, and Albon (who fell foul of track limits).
In Q2, Hulkenberg continued his absence from the final session this season and will start 11th, ahead of Lawson, Tsunoda, Gasly and Colapinto. The Alpine continues to look weak, so kudos to them for at least escaping Q1.
Into Q3 the McLaren was looking relatively weak, Ferrari resurgent, and Verstappen the man to beat. But beat him nobody did and despite being too late to the line for a second hot lap he claimed pole by three-tenths. Alongside him is Norris, who has the chance to make up good ground on Piastri but most be wary of trying anything in case he comes off worst.
Leclerc showed Ferrari had learned lessons from pretend qualifying to put himself into third, with Russell again performing well to start fourth. The third row is led by Hamilton and completed by Piastri, whose start of sixth presents both Verstappen and Norris with the prospect of significant points gains. The once rock solid Aussie has looked a bit more vulnerable of late.
Antonelli is on row four, ahead of Bearman, with Sainz and Alonso making row five Spanish territory.
The forecast is for it to be dry and sunny throughout.
Hulkenberg, points, 1.9
Ever since Azerbaijan, Piastri’s looked on the back foot. I do wonder if he’ll try too hard, end up making a mistake, and fail to finish. Piastri is 9 not to be classified, which is quite tempting.
Hulkenberg finished but his race was effectively over during the first lap. He was unable to repeat his sprint qualifying performance in the real thing but starts just one place outside the points. He’s looked pretty good for most of the weekend. But 1.9 isn’t fantastic given the sprint saw 5 DNFs in just 19 laps.
Leclerc, win each way, 21
Verstappen looks set to win, if he can retain the lead at the start. But the Ferraris looked decent in the sprint and were rather good in qualifying. Leclerc was six-thousandths slower than Norris. To gain one place is eminently possible. You can also back him just for the win at 34 on Betfair, but I tend to prefer each way bets.
Russell, win each way, 21
Similar to Leclerc (but one place back), and Russell’s been performing well all year. He can be backed just for the win at 29 on Betfair.
McLaren 1-2 cars not classified, 6
Bit of a more safety-first approach to the Piastri bet. At times the car seemed a bit tricky, but I do expect Norris to be more cautious, and to be likelier to finish. I’d probably rather go for the Piastri bet if I back one of these.
So… Piastri not to be classified at 9, or Leclerc/Russell to win each way at 21. I’m not super convinced by either, but I do always make at least one bet.
On gut instinct, I’ve backed Piastri to not be classified at 9.5 (boosted). He’s been a step behind Norris this weekend and off-kilter for a little while. The first corner can be tricky, there’s gravel and close walls at places, and I think Piastri’s looking a bit shaky.
I was a hair’s breadth from backing a split Leclerc/Russell win each way bet (boosted to 23 each). My suspicion is the race will be less exciting than its title implications, but we shall see.
Morris Dancer
Later, Stroll clumsily smashed into Ocon with an ill-considered overtake attempt which took out both men, and brought out the safety car for the second time. Under this finish the race would finish.
Verstappen had a lovely time, getting all 8 points while McLaren scored 0. Russell got 2nd place with Sainz in 3rd. Behind the Spaniard, Ferrari recovered from woeful qualifying to 4th and 5th, Hamilton leading Leclerc, with Albon, Tsunoda (who made up 11 places), and Antonelli finishing the points positions. Bearman had been in 8th but continued his one-man mission to disprove British bias by getting a 10s penalty for defending against Antonelli off-track. Due to the safety car finish, this bumped him down from 8th to 15th (last of those still running).
And then we had annoyingly late qualifying.
Q1 saw a red flag when Hadjar lost control and smashed into the wall. His car looked something of a handful, although a few other drivers did have some difficulties here and there, implying the wind was being less than helpful. He won’t start last, however, as Stroll’s 5 place grid penalty for smashing into Ocon gives him that honour. Also out were Bortoleto, Ocon, and Albon (who fell foul of track limits).
In Q2, Hulkenberg continued his absence from the final session this season and will start 11th, ahead of Lawson, Tsunoda, Gasly and Colapinto. The Alpine continues to look weak, so kudos to them for at least escaping Q1.
Into Q3 the McLaren was looking relatively weak, Ferrari resurgent, and Verstappen the man to beat. But beat him nobody did and despite being too late to the line for a second hot lap he claimed pole by three-tenths. Alongside him is Norris, who has the chance to make up good ground on Piastri but most be wary of trying anything in case he comes off worst.
Leclerc showed Ferrari had learned lessons from pretend qualifying to put himself into third, with Russell again performing well to start fourth. The third row is led by Hamilton and completed by Piastri, whose start of sixth presents both Verstappen and Norris with the prospect of significant points gains. The once rock solid Aussie has looked a bit more vulnerable of late.
Antonelli is on row four, ahead of Bearman, with Sainz and Alonso making row five Spanish territory.
The forecast is for it to be dry and sunny throughout.
Early Betting Thoughts
Piastri, not to be classifiedHulkenberg, points, 1.9
Ever since Azerbaijan, Piastri’s looked on the back foot. I do wonder if he’ll try too hard, end up making a mistake, and fail to finish. Piastri is 9 not to be classified, which is quite tempting.
Hulkenberg finished but his race was effectively over during the first lap. He was unable to repeat his sprint qualifying performance in the real thing but starts just one place outside the points. He’s looked pretty good for most of the weekend. But 1.9 isn’t fantastic given the sprint saw 5 DNFs in just 19 laps.
Browsing the Market
I waited until 1030am (over 11 hours post-qualifying) for the markets to awaken but Ladbrokes still hadn’t posted the full set. Anyway, here’s what I saw:Leclerc, win each way, 21
Verstappen looks set to win, if he can retain the lead at the start. But the Ferraris looked decent in the sprint and were rather good in qualifying. Leclerc was six-thousandths slower than Norris. To gain one place is eminently possible. You can also back him just for the win at 34 on Betfair, but I tend to prefer each way bets.
Russell, win each way, 21
Similar to Leclerc (but one place back), and Russell’s been performing well all year. He can be backed just for the win at 29 on Betfair.
McLaren 1-2 cars not classified, 6
Bit of a more safety-first approach to the Piastri bet. At times the car seemed a bit tricky, but I do expect Norris to be more cautious, and to be likelier to finish. I’d probably rather go for the Piastri bet if I back one of these.
So… Piastri not to be classified at 9, or Leclerc/Russell to win each way at 21. I’m not super convinced by either, but I do always make at least one bet.
On gut instinct, I’ve backed Piastri to not be classified at 9.5 (boosted). He’s been a step behind Norris this weekend and off-kilter for a little while. The first corner can be tricky, there’s gravel and close walls at places, and I think Piastri’s looking a bit shaky.
I was a hair’s breadth from backing a split Leclerc/Russell win each way bet (boosted to 23 each). My suspicion is the race will be less exciting than its title implications, but we shall see.
Morris Dancer
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