Mexican Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
Before qualifying (and, indeed, third practice) it looked like Verstappen remained likeliest to get pole but that it could be close, with Leclerc, Antonelli, and Norris all looking pretty good.
The short lap made qualifying very close throughout, and in Q1 we waved goodbye to Bortoleto, Albon, Gasly, Stroll, and Colapinto. Given Sainz got through to Q3 bit of a weaker showing from Albon, though it might be fairer to say Sainz is very good around this track.
In Q2 Tsunoda was the fastest man eliminated, followed by Ocon, Hulkenberg, Alonso, and Lawson.
Going into Q3 I had thought it was Verstappen’s to lose but his car was sliding a bit which was not only bad for pace but also won’t help his tyre wear over the long runs. In a tight session, Norris’ pole margin of around three-tenths was very impressive and if he can retain the lead on the opening lap he’s very likely to win. But, and it’s a big but, there’s a very long run into the first corner and a great opportunity to screw up.
Ferrari had a lovely day, with Leclerc and Hamilton 2 and 3 respectively and separated by just a tenth. Assuming the race goes well they might end up on the podium. A problem is that Russell starts 4th, has been driving very well, and will get priority in the pit stops. I think Russell might be a slight dark horse here.
In the end, Verstappen could only manage 5th, the meat in a Mercedes sandwich with Antonelli in 6th. I think Verstappen’s going to have a bit of a damage limitation exercise, but he’ll be aware that the long run into the first corner means Norris might well fall back, which could help in that regard.
Sainz had a tasty qualifying but also a 5 place grid penalty from last time out, so his 7th became just 12th. This was to the advantage of Piastri, who otherwise would’ve been 8th. Alongside the Aussie is Hadjar, who was quick throughout qualifying. Bearman was also good in every session and leads row five, ahead of the promoted (due to the Sainz penalty) Tsunoda.
I do loathe late times. A pain to watch, and it means the betting markets aren’t up in a timely fashion. Anyway.
Hamilton, podium/win each way
Sainz, points
Russell’s performed well pretty much all year, and is 2.75 for a podium finish (and 3.25 on Betfair). This is a bit longer than I anticipated, and while not amazing it’s definitely something I’ll back if nothing else leaps out at me.
Hamilton’s still not had a podium for Ferrari but did have a rather good qualifying. If Ferrari doesn’t end up having to lift and coast for half the race, and if it doesn’t eat its plank, then he could be on to get his first podium for a while. However, he’s only evens, and this is less tempting for me than the Russell bet. But he’s 15 for the win each way… probably won’t happen, but if you have a free bet, this is where I’d probably put it.
Sainz was best of the midfield in qualifying and had the pace for 7th, ahead of Piastri. It’s hard passing in Mexico, but in clean air or with a decent shot on the straight he should be able to make up ground. The difficulty passing and potential for lap 1 woe means the 1.57 is too short to tempt me.
Betfair has 2.02 to lay Norris to lead lap 1. Quite tempted by the bet, but the odds are not as good as they could be. Still, worth considering.
Anyway, I’ve gone for Russell to end up on the podium at 3.25, with Betfair.
Morris Dancer
The short lap made qualifying very close throughout, and in Q1 we waved goodbye to Bortoleto, Albon, Gasly, Stroll, and Colapinto. Given Sainz got through to Q3 bit of a weaker showing from Albon, though it might be fairer to say Sainz is very good around this track.
In Q2 Tsunoda was the fastest man eliminated, followed by Ocon, Hulkenberg, Alonso, and Lawson.
Going into Q3 I had thought it was Verstappen’s to lose but his car was sliding a bit which was not only bad for pace but also won’t help his tyre wear over the long runs. In a tight session, Norris’ pole margin of around three-tenths was very impressive and if he can retain the lead on the opening lap he’s very likely to win. But, and it’s a big but, there’s a very long run into the first corner and a great opportunity to screw up.
Ferrari had a lovely day, with Leclerc and Hamilton 2 and 3 respectively and separated by just a tenth. Assuming the race goes well they might end up on the podium. A problem is that Russell starts 4th, has been driving very well, and will get priority in the pit stops. I think Russell might be a slight dark horse here.
In the end, Verstappen could only manage 5th, the meat in a Mercedes sandwich with Antonelli in 6th. I think Verstappen’s going to have a bit of a damage limitation exercise, but he’ll be aware that the long run into the first corner means Norris might well fall back, which could help in that regard.
Sainz had a tasty qualifying but also a 5 place grid penalty from last time out, so his 7th became just 12th. This was to the advantage of Piastri, who otherwise would’ve been 8th. Alongside the Aussie is Hadjar, who was quick throughout qualifying. Bearman was also good in every session and leads row five, ahead of the promoted (due to the Sainz penalty) Tsunoda.
I do loathe late times. A pain to watch, and it means the betting markets aren’t up in a timely fashion. Anyway.
Early Betting Thoughts
Russell, podiumHamilton, podium/win each way
Sainz, points
Russell’s performed well pretty much all year, and is 2.75 for a podium finish (and 3.25 on Betfair). This is a bit longer than I anticipated, and while not amazing it’s definitely something I’ll back if nothing else leaps out at me.
Hamilton’s still not had a podium for Ferrari but did have a rather good qualifying. If Ferrari doesn’t end up having to lift and coast for half the race, and if it doesn’t eat its plank, then he could be on to get his first podium for a while. However, he’s only evens, and this is less tempting for me than the Russell bet. But he’s 15 for the win each way… probably won’t happen, but if you have a free bet, this is where I’d probably put it.
Sainz was best of the midfield in qualifying and had the pace for 7th, ahead of Piastri. It’s hard passing in Mexico, but in clean air or with a decent shot on the straight he should be able to make up ground. The difficulty passing and potential for lap 1 woe means the 1.57 is too short to tempt me.
Browsing the Market
Lay Norris, lead lap 1Betfair has 2.02 to lay Norris to lead lap 1. Quite tempted by the bet, but the odds are not as good as they could be. Still, worth considering.
Anyway, I’ve gone for Russell to end up on the podium at 3.25, with Betfair.
Morris Dancer
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