Singapore Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
I’d expected qualifying to be a five horse race but instead it ended up with rather bigger gaps than we’ve come to expect this year.
Q1 featured a red flag from Gasly suffering what appears to be a hydraulic failure. Bortoleto, Stroll, Colapinto, Ocon and Gasly were eliminated at this stage. Not too unexpected, save for Bortoleto being outqualified by Hulkenberg for the first time in a long while.
Q2 was a little delayed but when it was done we said goodbye to Hulkenberg, Albon, Sainz, Lawson, and Tsunoda. I think Hulkenberg did well to get so far up the grid, and the Williams was pushed to its potential but simply doesn’t gel with this circuit. Lawson and Tsunoda could’ve done better given how their team mates did.
And so to Q3, which was feeling like it might be a Verstappen versus Mercedes battle. And so it was, with Russell putting in a cracking first lap to secure provisional pole. Verstappen could only get within a couple of tenths but had to settle for the runner-up spot.
Piastri had looked a step behind Norris all weekend and will be glad to be as high as 3rd on the grid, with Antonelli alongside him. The Italian was almost four-tenths off his team mate and he really should’ve been closer.
Norris was six-hundredths off Piastri but starts two places lower. Not what he needs, especially when he was looking the faster man for most of practice. Hamilton followed, outqualifying Leclerc by one place. Hadjar did well to slip into 8th, ahead of Bearman, with Alonso in 10th.
One advantage of leaving the pre-race post until the morning of race day is that usually I catch grid penalties in time, and there’s a big one here: both Williams were disqualified for rear wing technical infringements.
There’s a very small chance of rain but the race should be dry, and I’m betting on that basis.
Russell, win each way
Verstappen, win each way
Piastri, win each way
Hulkenberg had unusually good qualifying in Singapore and will start 11th. But he’s only evens for points. That’s not terrible, but Lawson behind him could be tricky. This could well come down entirely to the start.
Russell had a pair of stonking qualifying laps, either one good enough for pole. Last time this happened I heroically bet on the man on pole to win and that came good in Canada. Unfortunately, the market’s learned its lesson and he’s only 2.5 for the win here. Maybe still value but Verstappen will be very keen to get ahead.
Speaking of which, Verstappen’s also got a strong chance of getting the win. But his odds are down at evens (or 2.4 on Betfair) and if Russell leads lap 1 I think this becomes fairly difficult. Not too appealing.
Piastri deserves to have longer odds (6.5) as the McLaren looked a step back from both Mercedes and Verstappen in qualifying. But in the race overheating tyres will be a problem (this even happened in qualifying, with drivers achieving purple first sectors often finding their tyres falling off by the third sector). And who’s been the best at cooling all year long, by a mile? McLaren. So even a slight relative loss of pace means he’s in the hunt. Piastri is 6.5 to win each way. It’s hard to say just how the pace versus cooling calculation will work out, but this is worth considering.
Anyway, nothing really grabbed me from my early thoughts, so I perused the markets for value.
Not a fan of Ladbrokes increasing group sizes to five but there we are. Anyway, Bortoleto’s up against the Williams, Ocon, and Stroll. He starts ahead of all of them and his car’s pretty competitive. That said, he was outqualified by his team mate for the first time in over half a dozen races, and he’s up against four other chaps, so 3.5 isn’t fantastic.
Antonelli, podium, 3.5
Antonelli could’ve, and should’ve been higher on the grid, at least ahead of Piastri if not locking out the front row. Last time Russell was on pole I’m pretty sure Piastri was third on the grid, right ahead of Antonelli, and lost out at the start. May not happened again, but Piastri can’t afford to take risks and may be more concerned with the man in fifth (Norris) than Antonelli. In clear air, the Mercedes should be faster, though it remains to be seen if they’ll overheat.
Under 16.5 classified finishers, 3
In the last three races here we’ve had six, one, and four (three plus a DNS) non-classified finishers. Generally, we’ve not had huge numbers this year. The exceptions that stand out tend to be the wet races in Australia and the UK, although Austria also had four DNFs. This is tempting but I think it probably won’t happen. Race should be dry and Monaco and Azerbaijan had 2 and 1 DNFs respectively.
So… rather unhelpfully, and unlike qualifying, nothing whatsoever leaps out at me. The Bortoleto and Piastri bets seem likely to be the best/least ropey. So I’m copying my qualifying approach and splitting one stake evenly between those two bets (as usual in this scenario it counts as 1 bet in the record).
That’s Piastri to win each way, boosted to 7, and Bortoleto to win group 3 (versus Williams, Ocon, and Stroll) at 3.6.
Quite glad I’ve already got a nice qualifying result under my belt here, to be honest.
Morris Dancer
Q1 featured a red flag from Gasly suffering what appears to be a hydraulic failure. Bortoleto, Stroll, Colapinto, Ocon and Gasly were eliminated at this stage. Not too unexpected, save for Bortoleto being outqualified by Hulkenberg for the first time in a long while.
Q2 was a little delayed but when it was done we said goodbye to Hulkenberg, Albon, Sainz, Lawson, and Tsunoda. I think Hulkenberg did well to get so far up the grid, and the Williams was pushed to its potential but simply doesn’t gel with this circuit. Lawson and Tsunoda could’ve done better given how their team mates did.
And so to Q3, which was feeling like it might be a Verstappen versus Mercedes battle. And so it was, with Russell putting in a cracking first lap to secure provisional pole. Verstappen could only get within a couple of tenths but had to settle for the runner-up spot.
Piastri had looked a step behind Norris all weekend and will be glad to be as high as 3rd on the grid, with Antonelli alongside him. The Italian was almost four-tenths off his team mate and he really should’ve been closer.
Norris was six-hundredths off Piastri but starts two places lower. Not what he needs, especially when he was looking the faster man for most of practice. Hamilton followed, outqualifying Leclerc by one place. Hadjar did well to slip into 8th, ahead of Bearman, with Alonso in 10th.
One advantage of leaving the pre-race post until the morning of race day is that usually I catch grid penalties in time, and there’s a big one here: both Williams were disqualified for rear wing technical infringements.
There’s a very small chance of rain but the race should be dry, and I’m betting on that basis.
Early Betting Thoughts
Hulkenberg, pointsRussell, win each way
Verstappen, win each way
Piastri, win each way
Hulkenberg had unusually good qualifying in Singapore and will start 11th. But he’s only evens for points. That’s not terrible, but Lawson behind him could be tricky. This could well come down entirely to the start.
Russell had a pair of stonking qualifying laps, either one good enough for pole. Last time this happened I heroically bet on the man on pole to win and that came good in Canada. Unfortunately, the market’s learned its lesson and he’s only 2.5 for the win here. Maybe still value but Verstappen will be very keen to get ahead.
Speaking of which, Verstappen’s also got a strong chance of getting the win. But his odds are down at evens (or 2.4 on Betfair) and if Russell leads lap 1 I think this becomes fairly difficult. Not too appealing.
Piastri deserves to have longer odds (6.5) as the McLaren looked a step back from both Mercedes and Verstappen in qualifying. But in the race overheating tyres will be a problem (this even happened in qualifying, with drivers achieving purple first sectors often finding their tyres falling off by the third sector). And who’s been the best at cooling all year long, by a mile? McLaren. So even a slight relative loss of pace means he’s in the hunt. Piastri is 6.5 to win each way. It’s hard to say just how the pace versus cooling calculation will work out, but this is worth considering.
Anyway, nothing really grabbed me from my early thoughts, so I perused the markets for value.
Browsing the Markets
Bortoleto, win group 3, 3.5Not a fan of Ladbrokes increasing group sizes to five but there we are. Anyway, Bortoleto’s up against the Williams, Ocon, and Stroll. He starts ahead of all of them and his car’s pretty competitive. That said, he was outqualified by his team mate for the first time in over half a dozen races, and he’s up against four other chaps, so 3.5 isn’t fantastic.
Antonelli, podium, 3.5
Antonelli could’ve, and should’ve been higher on the grid, at least ahead of Piastri if not locking out the front row. Last time Russell was on pole I’m pretty sure Piastri was third on the grid, right ahead of Antonelli, and lost out at the start. May not happened again, but Piastri can’t afford to take risks and may be more concerned with the man in fifth (Norris) than Antonelli. In clear air, the Mercedes should be faster, though it remains to be seen if they’ll overheat.
Under 16.5 classified finishers, 3
In the last three races here we’ve had six, one, and four (three plus a DNS) non-classified finishers. Generally, we’ve not had huge numbers this year. The exceptions that stand out tend to be the wet races in Australia and the UK, although Austria also had four DNFs. This is tempting but I think it probably won’t happen. Race should be dry and Monaco and Azerbaijan had 2 and 1 DNFs respectively.
So… rather unhelpfully, and unlike qualifying, nothing whatsoever leaps out at me. The Bortoleto and Piastri bets seem likely to be the best/least ropey. So I’m copying my qualifying approach and splitting one stake evenly between those two bets (as usual in this scenario it counts as 1 bet in the record).
That’s Piastri to win each way, boosted to 7, and Bortoleto to win group 3 (versus Williams, Ocon, and Stroll) at 3.6.
Quite glad I’ve already got a nice qualifying result under my belt here, to be honest.
Morris Dancer
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