Australia 2026: pre-qualifying
After the first and only practice of this sprint weekend *sigh* we had the joy of sprint qualifying.
Smooth, recently resurfaced track, so takes a little time for tyres to warm up. And track evolution is very high (will affect proper qualifying too). Can still be rough on tyre wear, apparently.
SQ1 and SQ2 all have to be on medium tyres, SQ3 has to be soft.
Perez did not take part in SQ1 due to his car being wonky. Verstappen hit top speed and started clipping at or before halfway down the long straight between turns 13 and 14, which isn’t great… The Red Bull looked worst of the big four by some way. We said goodbye to Sainz, Albon, Alonso, Stroll, and Bottas, with Perez last of all due to not running.
Mercedes, however, could hold around 320-325kph down the whole straight. McLaren are able to do something similar.
In SQ2, Norris complained of being blocked by Antonelli which could lead to a penalty for the Italian. Very tight among those just in or out, but the half-dozen out were Hulkenberg, Ocon, Lawson, Bortoleto, Lindblad, and Colapinto. Pretty wide mix of teams, with only Ocon and Colapinto having team mates who made it to the final stage of pretend qualifying.
Russell had looked nailed on for sprint pole, and in SQ3, he duly got it, three-tenths up on Antonelli, and then a similar margin back to Norris. Big step for McLaren, perhaps better software enabling a stronger straight line performance (see above). Hamilton was just two-hundredths behind Norris, and half a tenth ahead of Piastri. Leclerc will start in sixth place but was three-tenths slower than the Aussie.
Gasly did very well to put his Alpine in seventh, another three-tenths back, but four-tenths ahead of Verstappen. Yikes. Bearman was just a tenth off the Dutchman, with Hadjar four tenths slower.
My initial thoughts are that if McLaren ever gets ahead of Mercedes the Silver Arrows might find it much harder to pass than any other car. Off the line, if Ferrari retain an advantage, this could also be a danger point for Russell and Antonelli. And if Bearman’s Ferrari-powered Haas starts nicely we could see Verstappen fall out of the points positions too.
Plus, poor tyre wear could cost Red Bull as well. That may also undo some of McLaren’s gains.
The start will matter, but if Mercedes have a crucial engine advantage on the long straight that’ll be tough for Ferrari to deal with.
No especial value I saw, so I haven’t bet on the sprint or the qualifying.
Morris
Smooth, recently resurfaced track, so takes a little time for tyres to warm up. And track evolution is very high (will affect proper qualifying too). Can still be rough on tyre wear, apparently.
SQ1 and SQ2 all have to be on medium tyres, SQ3 has to be soft.
Perez did not take part in SQ1 due to his car being wonky. Verstappen hit top speed and started clipping at or before halfway down the long straight between turns 13 and 14, which isn’t great… The Red Bull looked worst of the big four by some way. We said goodbye to Sainz, Albon, Alonso, Stroll, and Bottas, with Perez last of all due to not running.
Mercedes, however, could hold around 320-325kph down the whole straight. McLaren are able to do something similar.
In SQ2, Norris complained of being blocked by Antonelli which could lead to a penalty for the Italian. Very tight among those just in or out, but the half-dozen out were Hulkenberg, Ocon, Lawson, Bortoleto, Lindblad, and Colapinto. Pretty wide mix of teams, with only Ocon and Colapinto having team mates who made it to the final stage of pretend qualifying.
Russell had looked nailed on for sprint pole, and in SQ3, he duly got it, three-tenths up on Antonelli, and then a similar margin back to Norris. Big step for McLaren, perhaps better software enabling a stronger straight line performance (see above). Hamilton was just two-hundredths behind Norris, and half a tenth ahead of Piastri. Leclerc will start in sixth place but was three-tenths slower than the Aussie.
Gasly did very well to put his Alpine in seventh, another three-tenths back, but four-tenths ahead of Verstappen. Yikes. Bearman was just a tenth off the Dutchman, with Hadjar four tenths slower.
My initial thoughts are that if McLaren ever gets ahead of Mercedes the Silver Arrows might find it much harder to pass than any other car. Off the line, if Ferrari retain an advantage, this could also be a danger point for Russell and Antonelli. And if Bearman’s Ferrari-powered Haas starts nicely we could see Verstappen fall out of the points positions too.
Plus, poor tyre wear could cost Red Bull as well. That may also undo some of McLaren’s gains.
The start will matter, but if Mercedes have a crucial engine advantage on the long straight that’ll be tough for Ferrari to deal with.
No especial value I saw, so I haven’t bet on the sprint or the qualifying.
Morris
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