Australia 2026: pre-race
Well, qualifying was quite the twisty, turny thing. Reliability is looking very iffy, from outright failures (Bortoleto/Verstappen) to problms that could be resolved (Ferrari, although this did require a visit to the garage).
Q1 had half the eliminations due to reliability. Neither Stroll nor Sainz were able to leave their garages or set a lap. Verstappen did start a flying lap but when he tried braking for the first corner his car decided this meant slapping on a handbrake, and he went straight into the barriers. This did, however, bring out a red flag and buy time for Mercedes to mend Antonelli’s car. The other eliminated chaps were Alonso, Perez, and Bottas.
Q2 saw us wave goodbye to Hulkenberg (a tiny margin behind Bortoleto, who reached Q3 but whose car failed him at the end of Q2 meaning he couldn’t set a time), as well as Bearman, Ocon, Gasly, Albon, and Colapinto. Mildly surprised, post-testing, that the Haas and Alpine look behind Racing Bulls and Audi. Ferrari got through but both drivers had some difficulty with, seemingly, energy harvesting/deployment. This was mended in the garage.
Q1 saw the seemingly inevitable: Russell got pole, by three-tenths over Antonelli. The Italian should not be entirely discounted but, at the time of writing, has a pair of investigations (neither his fault, both mechanic errors with the more serious being a fan left in the car which fell off on-track and got run over by Norris, bringing out a red flag).
Hadjar did very well to get third on the grid but was eight-tenths off Russell. We shall see if superior energy deployment is a Red Bull strength because, if it is, that could make a huge difference in the race. Happily, the gaps were rather tighter after this, with Leclerc joining Hadjar on the second row. If the Ferrari has a starting advantage, the Mercedes chaps may need to check their mirrors.
Piastri and Norris made the third row McLaren territory, with Hamilton having to settle for second on the grid, ahead of Lawson. Lindblad’s Q3 was a bit weak but he’s otherwise been good so far, and starts row five ahead of (probably) Bortoleto.
To me, it looks like Ferrari has more potential. Would’ve been good to see how Bortoleto stacked up but he got kiboshed by his reliability failure as he returned to the pits. Likewise, I think Lindblad had the pace to beat Lawson but didn’t put it together.
The weather forecast is for it to be dry throughout. It also appears that the team rather than Antonelli has been punished for the unsafe release.
Low number of classified finishers
Odd team mate match-ups
Verstappen podium/top 6
Hadjar win, each way
Bearman/Ocon points
Leclerc podium
This is pretty straightforward: the cars are tricky and Leclerc might be a rocketship off the line. Plus, Russell knows this is a title-winning season, or at least that he has a credible chance at it. Glory for him is getting the title, not losing it at turn 1 of the first race because he wanted a race win. At the time of writing, Russell had a lay value of 1.81 to lead lap 1 on the Betfair Exchange. That’s somewhat appealing.
Reliability has been iffy up and down the grid, and therefore few classified finishers seems credible. Unfortunately, there was no market up, weirdly, at Ladbrokes when I checked at 4.43pm (plenty of time for them to be put together). BetEx does have lay values for almost every driver, ranging from 1.23 for Russell to 14.5 for Stroll. It may be worth backing, small stakes, several of these, but I would’ve preferred a general ‘Under X drivers’ type bet.
On a similar note, we could see some weird team mate results just because the other driver is taken out by reliability. Antonelli at 4.5 to beat Russell is the longest of these, though a lot are rather close and less interesting than might have been the case.
Verstappen’s perhaps got the second quickest car, and while he starts a long way back, this will be an acid test of how easy/hard overtaking is. Unlike other street circuits, passing is possible here and he can end up a long way further up the field by the flag. Especially if others fail to finish. Downside risk is that if he has the same problem recur in the race that struck him in qualifying he won’t complete a single lap. His odds of around evens to be top 6 is too short, if only for reliability. For a podium, Verstappen’s 7. I’d probably prefer the podium bet, but the odds could be nicer. But to win, he’s 67, each way. Surely that’s a bit too silly. (But if you have a free bet, certainly consider this and the next possibility).
Hadjar has been looking pretty solid this weekend, and if there is a performance advantage, relatively, for the Red Bull from qualifying to the race then he may stand a chance. Especially if Antonelli ends up with a penalty. This is still very much an outside shot, though. Pre-weekend, he was 101 each way (third the odds top 2) with Ladbrokes and 81 (fifth the odds top 3 ) with bet365, with whom I do not have an account. The latter is now looking especially good. All that said, he’s still 26 each way with Ladbrokes or 48 for the straight win on Betfair. The car does look too far off the Mercedes pace, but he starts third and if shenanigans occur or reliability hits the Mercs, Hadjar’s right there. Leclerc and Piastri having shorter odds is, in my view, just wrong.
If the Ferrari’s flying off the line the Haas will benefit and this could be enough to shove them into the points. Again, they do need to finish… They’re 2.6 and 2.75 (Ocon longer) on Ladbrokes, and I think that’s well worth considering. Reliability can hit anyone but Haas have been among the more solid teams.
Leclerc was a tiny bit off Hadjar’s pace, and may well have a better start. Decent chance of a podium for him. But the odds of evens given the chance of woe in this set of wacky racing regulations does make me hesitant, especially as (barring misfortune) Mercedes should have locked down two of those places. Incidentally, Hadjar is 3.25 for a podium (4 with BetEx), further highlighting why he might still be worth backing each way.
So, a few longer shots from Red Bull that tempt, and the more down to earth Haas bets too. As Confucius said, I then browsed the markets to see if anything caught my eye.
Verstappen, win group 3, 5.5
Group 4 consists of Hadjar, Piastri, and Leclerc. While the Ferrari may get a great start, Hadjar’s looked very good and if Red Bull have an advantage with the battery he may still have a great shot of beating the Ferrari. All else being equal, he should be ahead of Piastri.
Verstappen’s group 3 also includes Norris and Hamilton. The Dutchman does have to pass almost everyone, but it wouldn’t really be a shock if he cut through the field like that. I think the Hadjar bet is the better value, but this is worth considering too. Assuming he doesn’t suffer reliability failure and get thrown into the barriers again.
Hmm. So, that leaves me with the two Haas bets and several Red Bull long shots. I might be splicing stakes hither and thither.
In the end, I decided to back Hadjar to win group 4 boosted to 5.25, and split a stake evenly on Bearman (boosted 2.65) and Ocon (boosted 2.8) to get into the points. If you have a free bet or want to put on a dinky sum then the Hadjar/Verstappen each way win bets are something to consider (if you do this I’d advocate setting up a hedge on Betfair but it’s up to you, of course).
Morris
Q1 had half the eliminations due to reliability. Neither Stroll nor Sainz were able to leave their garages or set a lap. Verstappen did start a flying lap but when he tried braking for the first corner his car decided this meant slapping on a handbrake, and he went straight into the barriers. This did, however, bring out a red flag and buy time for Mercedes to mend Antonelli’s car. The other eliminated chaps were Alonso, Perez, and Bottas.
Q2 saw us wave goodbye to Hulkenberg (a tiny margin behind Bortoleto, who reached Q3 but whose car failed him at the end of Q2 meaning he couldn’t set a time), as well as Bearman, Ocon, Gasly, Albon, and Colapinto. Mildly surprised, post-testing, that the Haas and Alpine look behind Racing Bulls and Audi. Ferrari got through but both drivers had some difficulty with, seemingly, energy harvesting/deployment. This was mended in the garage.
Q1 saw the seemingly inevitable: Russell got pole, by three-tenths over Antonelli. The Italian should not be entirely discounted but, at the time of writing, has a pair of investigations (neither his fault, both mechanic errors with the more serious being a fan left in the car which fell off on-track and got run over by Norris, bringing out a red flag).
Hadjar did very well to get third on the grid but was eight-tenths off Russell. We shall see if superior energy deployment is a Red Bull strength because, if it is, that could make a huge difference in the race. Happily, the gaps were rather tighter after this, with Leclerc joining Hadjar on the second row. If the Ferrari has a starting advantage, the Mercedes chaps may need to check their mirrors.
Piastri and Norris made the third row McLaren territory, with Hamilton having to settle for second on the grid, ahead of Lawson. Lindblad’s Q3 was a bit weak but he’s otherwise been good so far, and starts row five ahead of (probably) Bortoleto.
To me, it looks like Ferrari has more potential. Would’ve been good to see how Bortoleto stacked up but he got kiboshed by his reliability failure as he returned to the pits. Likewise, I think Lindblad had the pace to beat Lawson but didn’t put it together.
The weather forecast is for it to be dry throughout. It also appears that the team rather than Antonelli has been punished for the unsafe release.
Early Betting Thoughts
Lay Russell lead lap 1Low number of classified finishers
Odd team mate match-ups
Verstappen podium/top 6
Hadjar win, each way
Bearman/Ocon points
Leclerc podium
This is pretty straightforward: the cars are tricky and Leclerc might be a rocketship off the line. Plus, Russell knows this is a title-winning season, or at least that he has a credible chance at it. Glory for him is getting the title, not losing it at turn 1 of the first race because he wanted a race win. At the time of writing, Russell had a lay value of 1.81 to lead lap 1 on the Betfair Exchange. That’s somewhat appealing.
Reliability has been iffy up and down the grid, and therefore few classified finishers seems credible. Unfortunately, there was no market up, weirdly, at Ladbrokes when I checked at 4.43pm (plenty of time for them to be put together). BetEx does have lay values for almost every driver, ranging from 1.23 for Russell to 14.5 for Stroll. It may be worth backing, small stakes, several of these, but I would’ve preferred a general ‘Under X drivers’ type bet.
On a similar note, we could see some weird team mate results just because the other driver is taken out by reliability. Antonelli at 4.5 to beat Russell is the longest of these, though a lot are rather close and less interesting than might have been the case.
Verstappen’s perhaps got the second quickest car, and while he starts a long way back, this will be an acid test of how easy/hard overtaking is. Unlike other street circuits, passing is possible here and he can end up a long way further up the field by the flag. Especially if others fail to finish. Downside risk is that if he has the same problem recur in the race that struck him in qualifying he won’t complete a single lap. His odds of around evens to be top 6 is too short, if only for reliability. For a podium, Verstappen’s 7. I’d probably prefer the podium bet, but the odds could be nicer. But to win, he’s 67, each way. Surely that’s a bit too silly. (But if you have a free bet, certainly consider this and the next possibility).
Hadjar has been looking pretty solid this weekend, and if there is a performance advantage, relatively, for the Red Bull from qualifying to the race then he may stand a chance. Especially if Antonelli ends up with a penalty. This is still very much an outside shot, though. Pre-weekend, he was 101 each way (third the odds top 2) with Ladbrokes and 81 (fifth the odds top 3 ) with bet365, with whom I do not have an account. The latter is now looking especially good. All that said, he’s still 26 each way with Ladbrokes or 48 for the straight win on Betfair. The car does look too far off the Mercedes pace, but he starts third and if shenanigans occur or reliability hits the Mercs, Hadjar’s right there. Leclerc and Piastri having shorter odds is, in my view, just wrong.
If the Ferrari’s flying off the line the Haas will benefit and this could be enough to shove them into the points. Again, they do need to finish… They’re 2.6 and 2.75 (Ocon longer) on Ladbrokes, and I think that’s well worth considering. Reliability can hit anyone but Haas have been among the more solid teams.
Leclerc was a tiny bit off Hadjar’s pace, and may well have a better start. Decent chance of a podium for him. But the odds of evens given the chance of woe in this set of wacky racing regulations does make me hesitant, especially as (barring misfortune) Mercedes should have locked down two of those places. Incidentally, Hadjar is 3.25 for a podium (4 with BetEx), further highlighting why he might still be worth backing each way.
So, a few longer shots from Red Bull that tempt, and the more down to earth Haas bets too. As Confucius said, I then browsed the markets to see if anything caught my eye.
Browsing the Markets
Hadjar, win group 4, 5Verstappen, win group 3, 5.5
Group 4 consists of Hadjar, Piastri, and Leclerc. While the Ferrari may get a great start, Hadjar’s looked very good and if Red Bull have an advantage with the battery he may still have a great shot of beating the Ferrari. All else being equal, he should be ahead of Piastri.
Verstappen’s group 3 also includes Norris and Hamilton. The Dutchman does have to pass almost everyone, but it wouldn’t really be a shock if he cut through the field like that. I think the Hadjar bet is the better value, but this is worth considering too. Assuming he doesn’t suffer reliability failure and get thrown into the barriers again.
Hmm. So, that leaves me with the two Haas bets and several Red Bull long shots. I might be splicing stakes hither and thither.
In the end, I decided to back Hadjar to win group 4 boosted to 5.25, and split a stake evenly on Bearman (boosted 2.65) and Ocon (boosted 2.8) to get into the points. If you have a free bet or want to put on a dinky sum then the Hadjar/Verstappen each way win bets are something to consider (if you do this I’d advocate setting up a hedge on Betfair but it’s up to you, of course).
Morris
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