Australian Grand Prix 2025: pre-qualifying
Just before the first race is one of the most exciting times as a follower of F1 but also one of the most difficult as someone who bets on the sport. Even with a couple of practice sessions, sandbagging is eminently possible.
The first practice session of the year saw Norris top the time sheet, a tenth and a half up on Sainz (who appears to have forgotten he isn’t in a frontrunning team this year…). Leclerc was half a tenth behind his former team mate but two-tenths up on Piastri. The Aussie was just a few hundredths up on Verstappen, Albon, Russell, and Alonso. Hadjar was a tenth further back, and two-tenths ahead of Stroll.
First practice had a red flag brought out by Bearman, one of the rookies with a few races under his belt. His Haas was roughly introduced to a concrete wall, which meant he didn’t run in FP2 at all. Tsunoda being behind his team mate and Gasly being 17th to Doohan’s 13th were little surprises.
FP2 had Leclerc as fastest, a tenth ahead of Piastri and Norris (who were only a hundredth apart). Tsunoda was two-tenths down the road, around a tenth ahead of Hamilton, with Hadjar another tenth further back. Verstappen was next, six-tenths off the ultimate pace, and a tenth ahead of Hulkenberg. Stroll and Russell rounded out the top 10 and were separated by just three-thousandths of a second. I don’t normally go further than that, but Sainz, Albon, and Alonso were all within half a tenth of Russell.
Tsunoda had a very strong time here, and Hadjar was 6th, so the Racing Bulls may exceed my expectations. Hulkenberg putting a Sauber top 10 was not anticipated by me. I still think we’re in for a Ferrari-McLaren tussle, but Mercedes might be further off the pace than I’d thought. FP2 had them 10th and 16th, FP1 had them 7th and 14th.
For those checking out the betting articles for the first time, I should stress that (unless my computer breaks) I always offer at least one tip per Grand Prix, and sometimes more. Qualifying bets are more occasional, usually made after FP3. However, for a super early race like the Australian Grand Prix (which has FP3 finish at 2.30am UK time) I make this post and might bet after FP2.
As this is the first post of this type I’m making after starting the Undercutters podcast I do want to add a couple of things for anyone new. Always follow the Golden Rule: only bet what you can afford to lose. Betting should be fun and, with luck, profitable over a season. It should never be a cause of stress. And if you see me offer a tip and think it’s dumb, you might well be right. Any bets you make are at your own risk so don’t follow my bets if you think they’re daft. Last season I had a terrible first half, and got almost everything wrong (happily, this was outweighed by the latter third being very good).
Anyway, I decided to peruse the markets on Ladbrokes and Betfair to see if anything caught my eye.
Stroll to beat Alonso in qualifying at 3.5 might seem daft, given the Spaniard’s wiped the floor with the Canadian the last two seasons. But last year Stroll outqualified Alonso at Albert Park and beat him in the race. The qualifying margin was half a second. Alonso was quicker in FP1, Stroll in FP2. Unsure if I’ll back this but it’s worth considering.
Otherwise the odds were not terribly appealing.
I’ve decided not to back Stroll. Tempting, but not quite tempting enough.
Incidentally, for anyone looking ahead to race bets the current forecast is for rain and cooler temperatures than qualifying so bear that in mind.
I’ll put up the pre-race post sometime on Saturday, once the markets have gotten going.
Morris
The first practice session of the year saw Norris top the time sheet, a tenth and a half up on Sainz (who appears to have forgotten he isn’t in a frontrunning team this year…). Leclerc was half a tenth behind his former team mate but two-tenths up on Piastri. The Aussie was just a few hundredths up on Verstappen, Albon, Russell, and Alonso. Hadjar was a tenth further back, and two-tenths ahead of Stroll.
First practice had a red flag brought out by Bearman, one of the rookies with a few races under his belt. His Haas was roughly introduced to a concrete wall, which meant he didn’t run in FP2 at all. Tsunoda being behind his team mate and Gasly being 17th to Doohan’s 13th were little surprises.
FP2 had Leclerc as fastest, a tenth ahead of Piastri and Norris (who were only a hundredth apart). Tsunoda was two-tenths down the road, around a tenth ahead of Hamilton, with Hadjar another tenth further back. Verstappen was next, six-tenths off the ultimate pace, and a tenth ahead of Hulkenberg. Stroll and Russell rounded out the top 10 and were separated by just three-thousandths of a second. I don’t normally go further than that, but Sainz, Albon, and Alonso were all within half a tenth of Russell.
Tsunoda had a very strong time here, and Hadjar was 6th, so the Racing Bulls may exceed my expectations. Hulkenberg putting a Sauber top 10 was not anticipated by me. I still think we’re in for a Ferrari-McLaren tussle, but Mercedes might be further off the pace than I’d thought. FP2 had them 10th and 16th, FP1 had them 7th and 14th.
For those checking out the betting articles for the first time, I should stress that (unless my computer breaks) I always offer at least one tip per Grand Prix, and sometimes more. Qualifying bets are more occasional, usually made after FP3. However, for a super early race like the Australian Grand Prix (which has FP3 finish at 2.30am UK time) I make this post and might bet after FP2.
As this is the first post of this type I’m making after starting the Undercutters podcast I do want to add a couple of things for anyone new. Always follow the Golden Rule: only bet what you can afford to lose. Betting should be fun and, with luck, profitable over a season. It should never be a cause of stress. And if you see me offer a tip and think it’s dumb, you might well be right. Any bets you make are at your own risk so don’t follow my bets if you think they’re daft. Last season I had a terrible first half, and got almost everything wrong (happily, this was outweighed by the latter third being very good).
Anyway, I decided to peruse the markets on Ladbrokes and Betfair to see if anything caught my eye.
Stroll to beat Alonso in qualifying at 3.5 might seem daft, given the Spaniard’s wiped the floor with the Canadian the last two seasons. But last year Stroll outqualified Alonso at Albert Park and beat him in the race. The qualifying margin was half a second. Alonso was quicker in FP1, Stroll in FP2. Unsure if I’ll back this but it’s worth considering.
Otherwise the odds were not terribly appealing.
I’ve decided not to back Stroll. Tempting, but not quite tempting enough.
Incidentally, for anyone looking ahead to race bets the current forecast is for rain and cooler temperatures than qualifying so bear that in mind.
I’ll put up the pre-race post sometime on Saturday, once the markets have gotten going.
Morris
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