Chinese Grand Prix 2025: pre-qualifying/sprint

This is up a day earlier than usual due to the timing of the sessions this weekend.


First (and only) Practice

In first and only practice Norris was fastest, almost half a second ahead of Leclerc. While Piastri was two-tenths further back this was down to an error and he should’ve been much closer. Hamilton was half a tenth off Piastri, and two-tenths ahead of his former team mate Russell. Just over a tenth behind Russell was Hulkenberg, bizarrely, with Albon, Alonso, Antonelli, and Tsunoda rounding out the top 10.



Sprint Qualifying

In the first part of sprint qualifying McLaren and Ferrari were looking the fastest. We also saw Bortoleto get through while Hulkenberg did not and Lawson was slowest. Those eliminated were Doohan, Gasly, Ocon, Hulk, and Lawson. Double elimination for Alpine, which isn’t great, with Doohan beating his highly regarded team mate. Bortoleto again beat Hulkenberg, which is no mean feat. Lawson being last continues his horrendous start to the season. This will only get worse when we compare him to how Verstappen ends up doing. The gaps were tight, with 16th to 19th covered by one-tenth of a second.

In the second part of qualifying it looked like the McLarens and Verstappen were fastest. Both Hadjar and Bortoleto botched their fast laps, which is a shame for the rookies. The eliminated drivers were Alonso, Bearman, Sainz, Bortoleto, and Hadjar. This means Alonso has been outqualified by Stroll, who has started the season well, Bearman beat Ocon, and Sainz was outqualified by Albon.

And so into sprint qualifying three we went. The McLarens and Mercedes went out early, with sufficient fuel for two fast laps, while everyone else waited. After the initial runs Piastri was four-tenths ahead of Norris, with Russell two-tenths behind Piastri and ahead of Norris.

However, Piastri didn’t improve on his second lap, while Norris aborted his second lap. So they lugged about extra fuel for their initial runs for nothing.

Hamilton ended up with sprint pole by less than two-hundredths on Verstappen, with Piastri only eight-hundredths off the top time. Leclerc was 4th, two-tenths off his team mate, with Russell 5th, another tenth down the road.

Norris was only 6th, half a second off Hamilton and four-tenths off Piastri, but three-tenths ahead of Antonelli. Tsunoda, Albon, and Stroll all outqualified their team mates and complete the top 10.

 

McLaren had the pace. Piastri’s top time was less than a tenth off the fastest, and it was set with extra fuel on board. Both drivers failed to improve on the second lap, making this a failure of strategy or skill rather than pace in the car. For proper qualifying I fully expect McLaren to dominate the front row and Ferrari, perhaps Verstappen, should be right behind.

Quick note that the medium tyres were used in the first two sprint qualifying sessions with soft tyres for the final part.

This was far closer than last weekend and may suggest the season will be more competitive. However, I still think McLaren are the team to beat.



Betting

I often skip betting for qualifying, or a sprint race, especially when the timing is awkward, as is the case this weekend. However, perusing the market can sometimes lead to some interesting possibilities.

Piastri and Verstappen are interesting possibilities to win the sprint (2.98 on Betfair and 5.5 on Ladbrokes respectively), but so early into a season, and with no dry racing so far, I’m not inclined to bet. I find this difficult to call. Suspect the McLarens will advance, and Verstappen might as well.

The sprint is on at 3am UK time, with qualifying at 7am.



Morris

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