Chinese Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
Sprint
It was used medium tyres throughout the field for the sprint, with Hulkenberg making a pit lane start due to a setup change. The sprint is just 19 laps, roughly a third of the 56 we’ll see for the race proper on Sunday.
It was mostly formation flying at the start but Ocon tumbled down the order and Antonelli fell down to 8th. Norris made a mistake and went down to 9th. Even on the first lap, Hamilton and Verstappen were close and both pulled away from Piastri. This led to initial pressure by Leclerc on Piastri, but the Aussie retained his position. Not only that, Russell was able to snatch 4th from Leclerc at the end of the long straight on lap 1.
This was handy for Piastri as there was now a much larger gap behind him, while Leclerc and Russell continued to squabble.
On lap 2, Hamilton did very well to just barely escape DRS range and deny Verstappen that advantage on the straight. The same thing happened on the subsequent lap, the Briton doing great work to keep his old rival behind him. Meanwhile, Norris was still back in 9th, and couldn’t pass Stroll despite having DRS.
Around lap 6 many cars were out of DRS range, with the lower half of the grid largely still bunched up and able to use it. One exception was Antonelli in 7th being close to tsunoda in 6th. The gap between Hamilton and Verstappen had increased and, during the lap, Piastri got within DRS of Verstappen. Even with the DRS, Piastri was only able to close the gap over the two straights rather than effect a pass immediately.
Norris and Russell were both having tyre graining on the front left, something that would affect other drivers as the sprint continued. This will also be a factor for strategy in the Grand Prix.
On lap 8 both Verstappen and Piastri had DRS over the line, but Hamilton was still able to fend them off and keep the lead. The top three continued to pull away from Russell in 4th. By lap 9, the top three were close but there was no DRS.
On lap 11 Piastri had regained DRs while Norris, still 9th, was over 3s adrift from Stroll. Norris was struggling with his tyres, while further down the field Hadjar got ahead of Sainz, as did Lawson.
Lap 12 saw Sainz pit, which is a rarity in a sprint but he apparently suffered damage, and when he emerged he was 20s behind Hulkenberg, who was 19th.
Piastri was getting closer and closer to Verstappen, who was defending well, while Hamilton enjoyed a little bit of breathing space with a gap around 1.5 to 2s.
There was a high rate of tyre wear which meant a lot of conservation, so there was, after the first lap, less overtaking than might have been the case.
Three-quarters into the sprint there was a close top three, though Hamilton was edging away, with a gap of 5s to Russell and Leclerc. Behind this pair was a 5s gap to the Tsunoda, Antonelli, Stroll, and Norris, who had closed up. Behind Norris was a 7s gap to Alonso, with Albon 2s further back. At the rear, Sainz had cut the gap to Hulkenberg, on lap 15, to just 10s, showing how much difference fresh medium tyres can make.
Lap 15 also saw a slightly surprising pass by Piastri on Verstappen into the hairpin between the straights. Typically he hadn’t gotten close enough to try it there previously, instead focusing on the first corner. This gave Verstappen the DRS on the starting straight, but he was unable to retake the place.
Antonelli was still trying on to make headway against Tsunoda, but the Japanese driver defended ably to retain his 6th position.
Once Piastri had passed Verstappen he eased away and never seemed under threat, but at the same time Hamilton was extending his lead, cementing the top three in place over the last few laps. Hamilton claimed the win, with Piastri 2nd, and Verstappen in 3rd.
Towards the end, Verstappen was falling closer to Russell and Leclerc but he had enough of a gap that he was never under threat. Russell ended up 4th and Leclerc 5th. Tsunoda successfully kept Antonelli behind him, good defending from the Japanese driver who claimed 6th, while the rookie had to make do with 7th. But we saw from Piastri and Norris that overtaking was not straightforward despite the straights.
On the penultimate lap, Norris finally passed Stroll to get himself into 8th for the final point in the sprint race. But it’s a weak start to the Chinese race weekend for the driver who was so assured in Australia.
Stroll and Alonso ended up 9th and 10th, but with the Canadian 14s ahead of the Spaniard.
Qualifying
Qualifying for the race proper was another shocker for Lawson, who ended up slowest of them all in Q1. Also eliminated were Gasly, Bearman, Doohan, and Bortoleto, but all four of those can be expected to leave the stage early in qualifying due to car performance. Lawson’s Red Bull has far more pace but he has two problems. It seems to have a very narrow window of working well, and Verstappen can find that while Lawson cannot. In addition, the gaps between the field now are very small, so if you’re a little bit slower that can make a big difference. Even if Lawson were driving well he’d likely be a few tenths off Verstappen. Because he isn’t, the gap gets larger and this creates a huge gap in the grid slots of the two drivers.
Q2 was another tight session, in which we said goodbye to Ocon, Hulkenberg, Alonso, Stroll, and Sainz. While Albon again beat Sainz, the Thai driver did have to burn through his last soft tyre set, effectively putting him in 10th. Sainz still needs to find a little speed in his Williams. Fairly good results for Ocon and Hulkenberg to reach 11th and 12th given their team mates were both out in Q1.
In qualifying up to this point the Ferrari pace seemed to have mysteriously vanished, while the McLarens appeared to have the edge. As ever, Verstappen loomed as a threat for pole.
It looked like it was going to be a McLaren front row with Piastri securing his first pole ahead of Norris in 2nd. However, at the last gasp, Russell put in an astonishingly good lap to split the McLarens and put himself up into 2nd and push Norris down into 3rd. Verstappen could only manage 4th but is right behind Norris. The third row is Ferrari territory with Hamilton ahead of Leclerc. The British driver has looked a step ahead of his Monegasque team mate all weekend, the Shanghai International Circuit evidently suiting him a lot more than Leclerc.
It was a fantastic qualifying session for Racing Bulls, with Hadjar putting himself up into 7th and Tsunoda qualifying 9th. Between the pair is Antonelli, and behind them is Albon.
This is a pretty substantial shift from the grid for the sprint, and sets up the race really rather nicely.
Clean air very important, and this is likely for 1st place after lap 1 and Hadjar, or whoever leads the next cluster of cars. The weather forecast is for it to be hot and initially sunny, then cloudy, with no chance of rain.
Early Betting Thoughts
Piastri, win
Russell, podium/win
Hadjar, points (top 6?)
Lay Verstappen podium (tyre graining)
The McLaren’s the fastest car, albeit a bit tricky at times, and Piastri starts first. His odds are just over evens on Betfair. Not bad, but passing it’s very tricky, and if he screws up the start then I think he’d struggle versus Russell or Norris.
Speaking of Russell, he’s been quietly very good so far this season and starts 2nd. I think Verstappen’s dragging Red Bull to resulta its pace doesn’t deserve but the tyres get cooked, and Ferrari’s post-sprint setup changes appear to have compromised it a little. He’s 12 for the win on the Betfair exchange. That’s excessive. Backing that and setting up a hedge is something well worth considering. It does, probably, depend on him getting ahead off the line, however. For comparison, Russell is 4.5 to lead lap 1. But if he does that then the win odds should plummet and the lay get matched. For a podium, Russell is 1.91.
Hadjar’s formation lap woe aside, his performance has been very promising. He starts at the top of a midfield gaggle which could bode well for points or even squeaking into the top 6. He’s 4.5 on Betfair to be top 6, which is perhaps tight, but 1.75 for points. Not bad value but I’m loath to make bets under evens. Worth considering.
Verstappen starts 4th but tyre degradation has been a weakness in both last week’s race (saved by the safety car) and the sprint (saved by the short length). Laying him for the podium can be done at 2.68, though I think this is not quite generous enough given how tenacious the Dutchman can be.
Perusing the F1 Betting Market
In accordance with the wisdom of Kongming, I then perused the markets to see if any value leapt out at me.
Hadjar, win group 2
Ladbrokes’ group 2 is the Racing Bulls, plus Albon, Alonso, and Ocon. The Haas is off the pace and the Racing Bull appears faster than both the Williams and Aston Martin. This would be Hadjar’s first start but even if he gets passed by Antonelli he may stay ahead of Tsunoda. If he does then clear air should be lovely for him. But 5 cars and odds of 3.25 might be a little rough.
The bets that appeal to me most are Hadjar to top group 2 and Russell to win, backed at 12 and hedged at 4.
In the end I decided to go for Hadjar, at odds boosted to 3.3. The fact is he should be ahead of Albon, Alonso, and Ocon on the pace of his car. He starts two places ahead of Tsunoda. Yes, there’s uncertainty around him as a new driver, and this will be his first dry start (if he gets around the formation lap). But he’s got the speed to do it.
Another interesting bet to consider is Russell for the title, each way at 21. Right now he’s third on 20 points, four off Verstappen and six off Norris.
Anyway, let’s hope Hadjar has a splendid race. Start time is 7am UK time.
Morris
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