F1 2025 Australian Grand Prix Preview and Predictions (Undercutters Ep11 transcript)

Hello everyone, and welcome to the 11th Undercutters podcast. I’m your host, Morris, and we’re finally just a few days away from the start of the F1 2025 season. The Australian Grand Prix, the first F1 race of the season, is right around the corner. As always, if you want to get in touch you can leave me a comment on morrisf1.blogspot.com, which is where I post episode transcripts, or on Twitter where I’m MorrisF1. For those who prefer Blue Sky, I created an account there too, also under the name MorrisF1.

Incidentally, the Formula 1 Grand Prix schedule is crammed at the start of this F1 season, with five Grands Prix in the first six weekends. The week after Australia we have China, and then there’s one week off in the Formula 1 schedule. This is followed by a triple header of Japan, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. So any team that starts poorly will have very little time to turn things around in the initial run of F1 races, and any team starting well could rack up a lot of points very quickly.

After this initial quintet there’s a bit of breathing space for Miami, which comes a fortnight after Saudi Arabia and a fortnight before Imola.

Quick Look at Albert Park 1m26s

The Australian Grand Prix is the first race on the 2025 F1 calendar, and is hosted at Albert Park, which is a street circuit. While this makes it narrow, it isn’t quite as constricted as Monaco or Singapore. Passing is difficult, rather than impossible. Another difference to those two circuits is that the Australian Grand Prix has a high average speed, and rewards cars that have a lot of front grip. In the past it’s been described, by Mark Webber, I think, as a ‘point and squirt’ sort of circuit. Albert Park is in Melbourne, making it a convenient place to reach or to have as a highlight during a holiday.

There are four DRS zones and two DRS detection points, these being just after turn 6 and just before turn 13. The race is clockwise, and the track has a total of 14 corners, many of which are around the 90 degree mark. There’s a pretty wide range of cornering speeds too, which might provide an early pointer as to which cars are better at slow, medium, and higher speed cornering. While there’s only one actual straight there are three other places with a slight curve where the other DRS zones are found.

The circuit is 5.278 km in length, with pit stops costing around 20.1 seconds (this is the figure from 2024 so assuming increased speed this year the loss may be a little higher).

From pole to the first corner is 271m, which is pretty short. And that first corner is a tight right hander so there’s plenty of scope for screwing up and causing a crash. There’s a high chance of a safety car occurring during the course of the race.

Recent Races 3m23s

The last two races in Albert Park were both pretty interesting, for very different reasons.

In 2024, the Australian Grand Prix was the only race among the first five that Max Verstappen did not win. While he did suffer a reliability failure that ended his race prematurely it looked like another man was going to take the win even if Verstappen had finished the race. Who was that man?

It was Carlos Sainz, who had missed the previous race due to having his appendix removed. He bounced back in impressive style, qualifying in 2nd and then passing Verstappen early on to secure the lead. After that, Sainz looked like the winner all day long and led his team mate to a Ferrari 1-2 finish. This was particularly impressive as Sainz knew he was out of the team at the end of the year thanks to the shock early announcement that Hamilton was to join Ferrari. Lando Norris completed the podium, making this the only weak spot in the first five races for Red Bull.

Both Haas drivers, Tsunoda, Piastri, and Perez also scored. So did Aston Martin’s drivers, with Stroll in 6th ahead of Alonso in 8th, a rare case of the Spaniard finishing behind the Canadian in 2024. In addition to Verstappen’s DNF, both Hamilton and Russell failed to finish the race, with Hamilton suffering an engine issue and Russell having a late crash.

The 2023 Australian Grand Prix was pretty dramatic, though in that race the twists and turns happened towards the end of the race. The 2023 F1 season was one utterly dominated by Red Bull and Verstappen, so him winning the race was not a huge upset. Nor was Alonso getting on the podium, or Hamilton being in 2nd place. But what was a surprise was a huge number of DNFs, with eight drivers, 40% of the field, failing to finish.

The start saw Leclerc involved in a collision that put him out, with Albon, one of the other men involved, retiring a few laps later. Russell then suffered an engine failure on lap 17. But the key incident was on lap 52 when Magnussen crashed out and decorated the track with bits of carbon fibre. This led to a safety car then a red flag, with the race resuming from a standing start, the third of the Australian Grand Prix in 2023. Sainz and Alonso had a bit of a collision, while Gasly and Ocon, both driving for Alpine, crashed into one another for a double DNF. Sargeant hit de Vries, adding to the DNFs.

The 2023 race saw a weirdly high number of DNFs, crashes, safety cars, and red flags. For comparison, 2024 had just three DNFs, although these were all big hitters with Verstappen, Hamilton, and Russell failing to finish.

Street circuits can sometimes be processional and boring, but both the last two Australian Grands Prix were pretty interesting so hopefully that will be the case in 2025 as well.

It’s worth noting this has been one of Verstappen’s weaker tracks on the Formula 1 calendar, as he’s only won there once. He retired there not only in 2024, but 2022 and 2015 as well. The other recent winners have been Sainz in 2024, Leclerc in 2022, then Bottas and Vettel, the German winning twice. That makes Albert Park a happy hunting ground for Ferrari in recent years, with four of the last six wins in Australia.

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Australian Grand Prix Predictions 7m40s

Predicting the first race on the F1 calendar is always tricky, but testing has provided us with some guidance as to how the pecking order might stand.

There’s a strong consensus that the top four teams of 2024 remain the fastest going into 2025. In F1 testing this year pretty much everyone took the view that McLaren were top, with Ferrari and Mercedes very close to one another and a little off the McLaren, with Red Bull further behind. My view is that Ferrari were sandbagging slightly on long runs and are a touch ahead of Mercedes, who might have been helped by the cooler conditions in Bahrain during testing. The Mercedes has a weak spot of locking up a bit, and Ferrari seem to perhaps overdo tyre degradation. McLaren, as well as being fastest, seem to be kind to their tyres. I think Red Bull will be split, with Verstappen still around the sharp end but Lawson perhaps last of the top team drivers.

For the midfield, there’s also a strong consensus that either Alpine or Williams are best of the rest. My take is that Williams are better, in part due to the driver lineup. Sainz and Albon is an impressive pairing, and while I rate Gasly highly it seems Doohan’s days are numbered already.

Behind, there’s a lot of disagreement about how Aston Martin, Haas, and Racing Bulls stand. I’d probably put the order as Haas, Aston Martin, and then Racing Bulls as the slowest of the three teams, but it’s hard to call.

Sadly for Sauber, they’re seen by pretty much everyone as being the slowest this year. Hopefully it won’t be as bad as 2024 for the team.

So, with that preamble out of the way, how do I see the Australian Grand Prix going?

As far as pole goes, I think this will be down to Norris and Leclerc, with Norris taking it. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the other way around, but Norris beat Leclerc in Australian qualifying last year, and that was when Ferrari was probably the faster car.

In a not very shocking call I’m backing Norris to win this race. He was 30s ahead of Piastri last year so if the McLaren is the best car on the grid then it should be Norris taking the honours. However, Australia has had Ferrari win two-thirds of the last six races, so I think it’ll be Norris ahead of Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc on the podium.

Leclerc doesn’t have the best record around Australia and I think Hamilton’s going to be very fired up. But, in recent times, Hamilton’s been a step behind on qualifying and that’s where Leclerc has excelled. Hard to call but I think Hamilton’s going to end up ahead here. Over the season I think Leclerc will do it, but at this particular circuit my view is that Hamilton will beat his team mate.

For anybody wondering about Mercedes and Verstappen: the higher temperatures may compromise the Mercedes. I’m also of the view they’re third fastest anyway. Verstappen’s not had the strongest results at Australia, so while I expect him to compete for the podium and wins at many circuits this is among the races less likely for him to win, in my opinion.

All else being equal the top four teams should lock out eight of the points positions, so I’m going to see about predicting two drivers from the midfield who end up scoring. I’ve gone for Sainz to score. He was fantastic last year, beating Leclerc the whole weekend and achieving a great win. With the Williams looking competitive, I think the Smooth Operator has a strong chance of finishing in the top 10.

My second pick is another perhaps obvious choice: Pierre Gasly. The Alpine is also looking good among midfield runners and finished the 2024 F1 season very well. Gasly’s been a star of the midfield and I expect this to continue, and for the Frenchman to open his 2025 campaign with a points result.

This all assumes that the Aston Martin is iffy and Alonso doesn’t end up being best of the rest as he has been for the last two seasons.

Extra predictions are irregular things that I’ll forecast at particular races. The first of the year is that the Australian Grand Prix will see a lap 1 pileup, leading to three DNFs. If testing is accurate, we’ve got a very tight top four, and a very tight midfield. Add into that half a dozen rookies, and a bottleneck first corner, and I think we could see quite the crash before a single lap is completed. If a car suffers damage and the driver has to retire a lap or two down the line then that will count towards this prediction being correct.

It’s a few days off so the weather forecast could change but right now it might be rainy and could be on the cool side. Whether that happens or not could alter the result significantly as cooler temperatures would probably be good for Mercedes. And if it rains that could affect pit stops, DNFs, and so on.

F1 News 13m30s

F1 News.

The start of March saw Adrian Newey formally start working for Aston Martin. This is undoubtedly a good thing for the team and may help them develop upgrades, but I think the team is going to be heavily focused on 2026. They’ve got the funds, the designer, and the Alonso needed to put together a competitive car for next season, provided their engine is good enough.

Another piece of good 2026 news is the formal approval by F1 and the FIA for Cadillac’s inclusion on the grid. There had been some negative rumours swirling about this, but it’s been given the green light so, barring something dramatic happening, we will have 11 teams and 22 drivers on the grid next year.

Previously the bid, then associated with Andretti, had been rejected, but the new TWG Motorsports and General Motors-backed team has been given a much warmer welcome. Cadillac will have Graeme Lowdon as team principal, who was formerly the boss at the Virgin F1 team. This is a good appointment as Lowdon always seemed to have his head screwed on right, and with ample resources in his new role Cadillac could do very nicely. There’s also an array of experienced drivers who could help guide the team early on, such as Bottas, Perez, and Ricciardo. As of now, we don’t know what the driver lineup will be. Another possibility is Tsunoda heading there, as he’s been driving very nicely but it seems Red Bull will never promote him to the main team.

It’s also possible they’ll opt for an American driver, as Cadillac will be an American team headquartered in the USA. It will, however, have operations in the UK, which can help make recruitment a lot easier due to a cluster of teams working in a small geographical area. This enables engineers and other staff to switch teams without having to move house or find a new school for their kids.

There’s also some less happy news, relating to the FIA. There have been a number of governance concerns about the motorsport regulatory body, and now David Richards, the chairman of Motorsport UK, is threatening legal action if these are not addressed. The FIA recently held a meeting from which Richards, and others, were barred for refusing to sign a non-disclosure agreement, or NDA.

Richards has attacked FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem, also known as MBS, for various matters including a reduction in accountability, dismissal of senior figures, and the attempt to stifle swearing and other aspects of speech from F1 drivers. Richards had previously been a strong supporter of MBS but now feels the FIA president has failed in his promises to act in a non-executive way and to be transparent, describing the NDA request as a gagging order.

The NDA would make everything confidential, according to Richards, with any breaches solely determined by the FIA. Penalties it could then impose include an immediate fine of €50,000 and, more worryingly, undisclosed damages. FIA presidents typically get re-elected without a challenge but MBS has made more than his fair share of enemies by his high-handed and autocratic approach. There are rumours that Susie Wolff, the wife of Mercedes’ boss Toto Wolff, might stand, but we’ll have to wait and see. Richards himself will not be standing for FIA president, as he’s beyond the age limit.

And that’s that for the podcast. A quick, one-off reminder for those into betting that I do also offer tips on F1 but these will only be via my blog, Twitter, and Blue Sky. Because I usually bet very close to events and the short time available is not enough for me to record, edit, and release podcasts on betting.

Next episode we’ll look back at the Australian Grand Prix, which will hopefully be worth watching at 4am, and ahead to the Chinese Grand Prix, which is the very next weekend. And that’ll be next Tuesday.