Australian Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
Q1 saw some top team drivers leave the stage, with Antonelli in 16th and Lawson 18th. To be fair, Antonelli was looking pretty good but damage to his car dropped the floor and cost him around three-tenths on every straight. Lawson’s last lap was looking good but he ran wide late on, and he had been compromised by lack of running practice. This also means the Kiwi has no knowledge of the car on high fuel, which will make his race even trickier. Also out at this stage was Hulkenberg in 17th, Ocon in 19th and slowest on track, and Bearman, who did go out only to discover his gearbox wasn’t working. Because of this the British driver never set a lap time.
Into Q2 we went, and I was pretty surprised that Hadjar was the fastest man eliminated, but good for him. Alonso was 12th, a tiny margin ahead of Stroll, with Doohan in 14th. The Aussie was somewhat discombobulated by Hamilton spinning his Ferrari late in Q2 which meant that some, including Doohan, had to slow down for the yellow flag. Bortoleto was slowest in Q2 but given he beat Hulkenberg in his first ever qualifying that’s fgood stuff from the Brazilian.
Into Q3 we went and it seemed the McLarens were the chaps to beat. Both botched their initial runs, Piastri buggering the final corner and Norris running wide to earn himself a deletion. This put Verstappen top of the time sheet. The Red Bull had looked slowest of the top teams at the start of the weekend but setup changes meant that, in Verstappen’s hands, it was once more looking like a contender. Russell was also quick and the Ferraris seemed to have taken a step backwards.
Come the second runs, Piastri was briefly quickest before Norris went less than a tenth faster to secure a McLaren front row and pole for the Briton. Verstappen will start 3rd but four-tenths off Norris’ time, ahead of Russell. And if you guessed who’s on row three then you’re a smarter cookie than me because Tsunoda and Albon is the answer. Fantastic stuff from both drivers. Leclerc leads Hamilton on the fourth row but Ferrari must feel a bit disappointed with that. Gasly and Sainz round out the top 10, making it a rather good result for Williams overall.
There are no penalties altering the grid. The weather forecast at the time of writing is for heavy rain. Unless otherwise noted, odds are with Ladbrokes.
Early Betting Thoughts
Antonelli, points
Hadjar, points
Verstappen, win
Hamilton, podium
Antonelli had decent pace but the damage to his car cost him a lot. All else being equal, I think he has a good chance of reaching the points if his car is repaired. The downside is that he starts far back and could find himself caught up in a lap 1 incident, and if the rain is heavy then this may mean a safety car start, which would negate the biggest opportunity for rapid passes. In addition, he has sod all experience in the wet. He’s 2.2 for points which is too short to tempt given the difficulties involved.
Hadjar exceeded my expectations in qualifying and was only half a tenth off making Q3. The Racing Bull is looking far more competitive than anticipated. He’s 2.75 for points, but may face a stern challenge from Alonso right behind him and Antonelli charging through the field.
Verstappen was a few tenths off the McLarens in ultimate pace in qualifying. But that was in the hot, dry conditions of Saturday, not the forecast cool, wet conditions of Sunday. In those conditions I think he has a good chance of moving forward. His odds are 2.87 for the win… I might back this, depending what else is available. It’s not outstanding value but is worth considering.
Hamilton was poor in qualifying in 2024 but at times very impressive in the races. In qualifying this year, he was a couple of tenths off Leclerc, but the Monegasque is renowned as an excellent qualifier. With rain in the offing and Hamilton recently being better in the race, he has a good chance to move forward, I feel. His podium odds are 4.5, which means it’s also on my list for consideration.
In accordance with my usual habit, I always peruse the markets generally to see if any value emerges from markets that didn’t spring to mind. Here’s what I saw:
Under 17.5 classified finishers, 2.2
The 2024 Australian Grand Prix had 17 classified finishers, the 2023 race had 17, likewise 2022. In addition, we’ve got heavy rain forecast and half a dozen rookies on the grid. Under 17.5 classified finishers at longer than evens is too good not to back.
Hamilton beat Leclerc, 3.3
As mentioned above, Hamilton put in great performances in the races last year, but often this was overcoming a substantial qualifying deficit. In Australia, he’s just one place behind Leclerc. This is a pretty appealing bet too, to be honest.
It’s the first race of the season, which means betting’s never trickier because we have just qualifying for genuine pace information. I’m tipping the under 17.5 classified finishers bet at 2.25 (boosted price). Even in a standard dry race this could come off. In the rain, with a ton of rookies, it’d be bad luck if it didn’t.
I’m not tipping the Hamilton bet, but if you have a free bet then this is where I’d place it.
Let’s hope the race tomorrow is worth getting up for. I’m going to have a book ready in case the start is delayed by rain.
Morris
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