Canadian Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
After the first two practice sessions Mercedes and Williams looked good, McLaren slightly iffy for once. In qualifying, the result was slightly annoying given I’d chosen not to back Russell, but it does set up the race pretty nicely.
Q1 saw us lose Bortoleto, Sainz, Stroll, Lawson, and Gasly. The big shock departure in Q1 was Sainz, whose Williams had the pace but who was very badly blocked by Hadjar. However, Stroll going out when Alonso would do very well (half asecond slower in this session) was not great. Also notable was Colapinto escaping while Gasly was slowest on the track. Three of the drivers out in Q1 have teammates who made it to Q3.
This session also saw Albon’s engine cover come off entirely, littering the track and bringing out relatively brief red flags.
The top three departures in Q2 were covered by a tenth of a second, with Tsunoda, Colapinto, and Hulkenberg leading Bearman and Ocon out of qualifying. Unfortunately for Tsunoda he’ll be starting last due to a 10 place grid penalty for overtaking under red flags in practice. But it was a better performance from the Japanese driver, whose penalty is arguably a little bit harsh (Piastri had damage on his car and was moving slowly).
In Q3 it was looking like something of a Verstappen-Piastri duel after Norris fluffed his first attempt, only for Russell to come steaming in at the last to snatch pole away from Verstappen. Qualifying’s been competitive all season, but with three drivers from different teams all in close contention to top the time sheet this was one of the best of the year.
Piastri had to settle for 3rd, with Antonelli alongside him highlighting the great pace of Mercedes. If they can avoid chewing up their tyres in the race they could be on for great points after three poor races in a row. Ex-teammates Hamilton and Alonso comprise the third row, Alonso looking fast all the way through qualifying. A tweak to the front wing seems to have unlocked more pace from recent upgrades for Aston Martin. Behind them we have Norris and Leclerc, mistakes costing Norris, and Leclerc perhaps compromised by loss of practice time after his FP1 crash. Last of the top 10 were Hadjar and Albon. However, Hadjar has a 3 place grid penalty for the clear impeding of Sainz in Q1.
The race weather is forecast to be slightly warmer than qualifying, which is not good news for McLaren. It’s also worth noting both Russell and Verstappen were on medium tyres for their quickest laps in qualifying, as were Antonelli and Alonso.
Alonso, top 6
Verstappen, win each way
Sainz is 2.6 for points and starts down in 16th. This was due to impeding rather than lack of pace but does mean he has time to make up. However, Canada is a track where passing is possible. It usually also has a safety car which could prove advantageous for someone further back with less to lose by taking a contrary strategy. Little bit tight on the odds but worth thinking about.
Alonso was fast all through qualifying, was within a tenth of Hamilton and ahead of Norris and Leclerc. Could he maintain that through the race? Perhaps. It’s also worth noting Alonso’s not a qualifying specialist, meaning his race pace isn’t that much slower, and he’s often great on a first lap. He’s 5.5 to be top 6, which is not bad, but he would have to keep Norris and Leclerc behind him, and they did make some errors in qualifying.
I was mildly surprised to see Verstappen shorter than Piastri for the win (2.5 versus 2.6) which means the each way aspect doesn’t make sense. On Betfair he’s out at 3.2, which may be worth backing (and potentially hedging). McLaren seem slightly on the back foot and Verstappen might be the best bet of the bunch so far.
Russell, win each way 4.5
For the man starting on pole 4.5 is pretty long. Against that is the fact it’s going to be slightly warmer and both Verstappen and Piastri will be very quick when it comes to trying to hunt him down. The Mercedes has been looking good this weekend and Russell’s been pretty consistent this year, but I remain concerned about reliability (which also affects some other teams, such as McLaren, of course).
Norris, win each way 8
Norris has been top 2 in the last four races and while his qualifying was less than spectacular he does have the pace to challenge at the sharp end. The problem he’s got is his 7th place grid slot. Is 8 value? All the top three seem in better shape, but he might be able to challenge them. I’m not inclined to back this, but if I had a free bet it might go here.
Normally I’d wait for the markets to wake up (they’re a little slow given the later than usual start time). But time pressure today means I’m just going to back Russell. Short run to the first corner and he starts on pole position. Backed him at 4.6 (boosted) each way. An alternative approach would be to back him at 4.6 on Ladbrokes then set up a hedge on Betfair (unusually, the Betfair odds are shorter, with 4 on Russell to win as I write this).
Race start is 7pm UK time.
Morris
Q1 saw us lose Bortoleto, Sainz, Stroll, Lawson, and Gasly. The big shock departure in Q1 was Sainz, whose Williams had the pace but who was very badly blocked by Hadjar. However, Stroll going out when Alonso would do very well (half asecond slower in this session) was not great. Also notable was Colapinto escaping while Gasly was slowest on the track. Three of the drivers out in Q1 have teammates who made it to Q3.
This session also saw Albon’s engine cover come off entirely, littering the track and bringing out relatively brief red flags.
The top three departures in Q2 were covered by a tenth of a second, with Tsunoda, Colapinto, and Hulkenberg leading Bearman and Ocon out of qualifying. Unfortunately for Tsunoda he’ll be starting last due to a 10 place grid penalty for overtaking under red flags in practice. But it was a better performance from the Japanese driver, whose penalty is arguably a little bit harsh (Piastri had damage on his car and was moving slowly).
In Q3 it was looking like something of a Verstappen-Piastri duel after Norris fluffed his first attempt, only for Russell to come steaming in at the last to snatch pole away from Verstappen. Qualifying’s been competitive all season, but with three drivers from different teams all in close contention to top the time sheet this was one of the best of the year.
Piastri had to settle for 3rd, with Antonelli alongside him highlighting the great pace of Mercedes. If they can avoid chewing up their tyres in the race they could be on for great points after three poor races in a row. Ex-teammates Hamilton and Alonso comprise the third row, Alonso looking fast all the way through qualifying. A tweak to the front wing seems to have unlocked more pace from recent upgrades for Aston Martin. Behind them we have Norris and Leclerc, mistakes costing Norris, and Leclerc perhaps compromised by loss of practice time after his FP1 crash. Last of the top 10 were Hadjar and Albon. However, Hadjar has a 3 place grid penalty for the clear impeding of Sainz in Q1.
The race weather is forecast to be slightly warmer than qualifying, which is not good news for McLaren. It’s also worth noting both Russell and Verstappen were on medium tyres for their quickest laps in qualifying, as were Antonelli and Alonso.
Early Betting Thoughts
Sainz, pointsAlonso, top 6
Verstappen, win each way
Sainz is 2.6 for points and starts down in 16th. This was due to impeding rather than lack of pace but does mean he has time to make up. However, Canada is a track where passing is possible. It usually also has a safety car which could prove advantageous for someone further back with less to lose by taking a contrary strategy. Little bit tight on the odds but worth thinking about.
Alonso was fast all through qualifying, was within a tenth of Hamilton and ahead of Norris and Leclerc. Could he maintain that through the race? Perhaps. It’s also worth noting Alonso’s not a qualifying specialist, meaning his race pace isn’t that much slower, and he’s often great on a first lap. He’s 5.5 to be top 6, which is not bad, but he would have to keep Norris and Leclerc behind him, and they did make some errors in qualifying.
I was mildly surprised to see Verstappen shorter than Piastri for the win (2.5 versus 2.6) which means the each way aspect doesn’t make sense. On Betfair he’s out at 3.2, which may be worth backing (and potentially hedging). McLaren seem slightly on the back foot and Verstappen might be the best bet of the bunch so far.
Browsing the Market
As always, I browsed the market to see if any value leapt out.Russell, win each way 4.5
For the man starting on pole 4.5 is pretty long. Against that is the fact it’s going to be slightly warmer and both Verstappen and Piastri will be very quick when it comes to trying to hunt him down. The Mercedes has been looking good this weekend and Russell’s been pretty consistent this year, but I remain concerned about reliability (which also affects some other teams, such as McLaren, of course).
Norris, win each way 8
Norris has been top 2 in the last four races and while his qualifying was less than spectacular he does have the pace to challenge at the sharp end. The problem he’s got is his 7th place grid slot. Is 8 value? All the top three seem in better shape, but he might be able to challenge them. I’m not inclined to back this, but if I had a free bet it might go here.
Normally I’d wait for the markets to wake up (they’re a little slow given the later than usual start time). But time pressure today means I’m just going to back Russell. Short run to the first corner and he starts on pole position. Backed him at 4.6 (boosted) each way. An alternative approach would be to back him at 4.6 on Ladbrokes then set up a hedge on Betfair (unusually, the Betfair odds are shorter, with 4 on Russell to win as I write this).
Race start is 7pm UK time.
Morris
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