Austrian Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
Norris had looked fast all through practice but would he finally convert that to pole?
The first five out in Q1 were Stroll, Ocon, Tsunoda, Sainz, and Hulkenberg. Sainz was complaining of his car being undriveable possibly due to damage. Hulkenberg got comprehensively outqualified by his team mate, but he went out in Q1 in Spain too, and the extra soft tyre late on proved very handy. Tsunoda wasn’t that much slower than Verstappen but the margins were ultra-tight.
In Q2 Alonso and Albon were the fastest man eliminated, followed by Hadjar, Colapinto, and Bearman. Hadjar’s been great through the season so it’s unusual to see him behind Lawson in qualifying, but credit to the Kiwi who advanced to Q3.
Norris had looked the fastest through all of qualifying. But would he choke again?
No. He was faster than everybody else by a mile in both his runs, and was utterly dominant.
But behind him was Leclerc, who split the McLarens with a fantastic performance in Q3. Piastri might’ve overtaken him but the Gasly double yellows meant the Aussie had no chance to start his lap at pace. Instead he leads the second row, with Hamilton alongside him.
Russell did not do as well as I’d hoped, and finds himself on the third row next to Lawson, who had an absolutely cracking qualifying session to put his Racing Bull into 6th, making him top of all four Red Bull drivers. Behind him by three-thousandths of a second was Verstappen, who had struggled with the car’s grip throughout qualifying and who was struck with bad luck by the Gasly double waved yellows, forcing the Dutchman to abort his second quick run.
Bortoleto starts alongside Verstappen, and might have been the most impressive chap in qualifying after Norris. Good stuff from the Brazilian. Antonelli could only manage 9th, half a second off Russell, with Gasly in 10th.
Russell will likely end up with a penalty for an unsafe release, which is a bit of a rookie error. Edited extra bit: It seems he only got a reprimand. Hmm. This seems rather soft to me.
Piastri, win each way
Hulkenberg, points
Alonso qualified 11th, and (pending penalties, at the time I write this none are apparent but I’d be slightly surprised if Russell doesn’t get one). He’s 2.4 for points which slightly surprises me and if nothing else pops up I might well back this. He’s been racing very well recently. Downside is the Mercedes power unit which has failed quite a lot lately.
Piastri starts 3rd and may hay have been higher up the order but for the Gasly yellows getting in his way. He’s very good wheel-to-wheel, but if Norris is able to pull a gap then, frankly, the Australian driver’s looked a step behind all weekend. He is 4.5 for the win, so it’d come off each way if he’s top 2.
Hulkenberg’s qualifying was woeful, last on the grid while his team mate made a debut Q3 appearance. However, he had a similarly poor qualifying in Spain, and we know how that turned out. A safety car with handy timing for fresh soft tyres could see him do rather well, and we know the Sauber’s not that bad now. He’s got odds of 6 for points… might not be worth it. Free bet territory, perhaps.
Leclerc, win each way, 8
Leclerc was very quick on both his Q3 runs and split the McLarens. I do think he’s at risk of being immediately mugged by Piastri, but if he can hold off the Aussie then 8 each way for the win is interesting. He could also be helped if Norris returns to 2024 form and botches the start.
No Safety Car, 2.3 (Betfair)
I was thinking of backing a safety car, so I quickly checked the last few races but only 1 of 3 had featured one. Digging more, I found an F1 page that reckons the odds of a safety car is actually 38%. Far from impossible, but it should be odds against, not odds on. I’m very tempted by the absence of a safety car, my concern is the possibility of an engine failing.
If it weren’t for the engine situation I’d back No Safety Car. Instead I’m going for Alonso to score at 2.4 (boosted to 2.45). Yes, I know he has the iffy engine but the odds on him in particular suffering woe are longer than *anyone* suffering it.
The race start is 2pm UK time.
Morris
The first five out in Q1 were Stroll, Ocon, Tsunoda, Sainz, and Hulkenberg. Sainz was complaining of his car being undriveable possibly due to damage. Hulkenberg got comprehensively outqualified by his team mate, but he went out in Q1 in Spain too, and the extra soft tyre late on proved very handy. Tsunoda wasn’t that much slower than Verstappen but the margins were ultra-tight.
In Q2 Alonso and Albon were the fastest man eliminated, followed by Hadjar, Colapinto, and Bearman. Hadjar’s been great through the season so it’s unusual to see him behind Lawson in qualifying, but credit to the Kiwi who advanced to Q3.
Norris had looked the fastest through all of qualifying. But would he choke again?
No. He was faster than everybody else by a mile in both his runs, and was utterly dominant.
But behind him was Leclerc, who split the McLarens with a fantastic performance in Q3. Piastri might’ve overtaken him but the Gasly double yellows meant the Aussie had no chance to start his lap at pace. Instead he leads the second row, with Hamilton alongside him.
Russell did not do as well as I’d hoped, and finds himself on the third row next to Lawson, who had an absolutely cracking qualifying session to put his Racing Bull into 6th, making him top of all four Red Bull drivers. Behind him by three-thousandths of a second was Verstappen, who had struggled with the car’s grip throughout qualifying and who was struck with bad luck by the Gasly double waved yellows, forcing the Dutchman to abort his second quick run.
Bortoleto starts alongside Verstappen, and might have been the most impressive chap in qualifying after Norris. Good stuff from the Brazilian. Antonelli could only manage 9th, half a second off Russell, with Gasly in 10th.
Russell will likely end up with a penalty for an unsafe release, which is a bit of a rookie error. Edited extra bit: It seems he only got a reprimand. Hmm. This seems rather soft to me.
Early Betting Thoughts
Alonso, pointsPiastri, win each way
Hulkenberg, points
Alonso qualified 11th, and (pending penalties, at the time I write this none are apparent but I’d be slightly surprised if Russell doesn’t get one). He’s 2.4 for points which slightly surprises me and if nothing else pops up I might well back this. He’s been racing very well recently. Downside is the Mercedes power unit which has failed quite a lot lately.
Piastri starts 3rd and may hay have been higher up the order but for the Gasly yellows getting in his way. He’s very good wheel-to-wheel, but if Norris is able to pull a gap then, frankly, the Australian driver’s looked a step behind all weekend. He is 4.5 for the win, so it’d come off each way if he’s top 2.
Hulkenberg’s qualifying was woeful, last on the grid while his team mate made a debut Q3 appearance. However, he had a similarly poor qualifying in Spain, and we know how that turned out. A safety car with handy timing for fresh soft tyres could see him do rather well, and we know the Sauber’s not that bad now. He’s got odds of 6 for points… might not be worth it. Free bet territory, perhaps.
Browsing the Markets
And so, in accordance with the principles of Stoicism, I perused the markets.Leclerc, win each way, 8
Leclerc was very quick on both his Q3 runs and split the McLarens. I do think he’s at risk of being immediately mugged by Piastri, but if he can hold off the Aussie then 8 each way for the win is interesting. He could also be helped if Norris returns to 2024 form and botches the start.
No Safety Car, 2.3 (Betfair)
I was thinking of backing a safety car, so I quickly checked the last few races but only 1 of 3 had featured one. Digging more, I found an F1 page that reckons the odds of a safety car is actually 38%. Far from impossible, but it should be odds against, not odds on. I’m very tempted by the absence of a safety car, my concern is the possibility of an engine failing.
If it weren’t for the engine situation I’d back No Safety Car. Instead I’m going for Alonso to score at 2.4 (boosted to 2.45). Yes, I know he has the iffy engine but the odds on him in particular suffering woe are longer than *anyone* suffering it.
The race start is 2pm UK time.
Morris
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