F1 2025 Austrian Grand Prix Predictions and Preview (Undercutters Ep26 transcript)

Hello, everyone. In the 26th edition of the Undercutters podcast we’re looking ahead to the Austrian Grand Prix. Austria and the UK were a double-header that provided a lot of entertainment last season, and they’re a double-header again this time. Will we see another Piastri and Norris battle on-track? Will the McLarens be on the back foot in qualifying? And will Hulkenberg make it three points finishes in a row?

Quick Look at the Red Bull Ring 00m34s

The Austrian Grand Prix takes place at the Red Bull Ring, which replaced the earlier Osterreichring which itself replaced the Zeltweg airfield circuit. Unlike its previous incarnation, the Red Bull Ring is a short circuit of just 4.3km, which means we get 71 laps in the race.

It’s got three DRS zones covering the grid straight, and from turns 1 to 3, which puts the whole first sector except turn 1 within DRS. Between turns 3 and 4 there’s another DRS zone, meaning we get all three in a row. But they all have independent detection points, so we’ll see if drivers try and hang back to avoid passing in one zone just to lose the place immediately.

This power section might be rough on the likes of Alpine, whose car is not necessarily the best in that regard. Could be nice for Williams, though. Between the DRS zones there are a couple of quick corners, which may be good for the McLarens.

According to Pirelli’s 2024 stats the Austrian Grand Prix is very much middle of the road in most areas. Traction is only 2 out of 5, with asphalt abrasion a little higher at 4 out of 5. It’ll be interesting to see how the teams fare given in Canada it was Verstappen’s tyres which were running out and only smart pitting enabled him to stay ahead of Antonelli. For much of the season Mercedes have been chewing their tyres but last time they seemed very good in this regard. There’s 233m from the grid to the first corner, which is pretty short, although the previous race did see a little lap 1 action.

The Last Austrian Grand Prix 2m20s

I imagine a lot of you will remember the last Austrian Grand Prix pretty well because it had a memorable moment near the end.

On the grid, Verstappen had pole ahead of Norris, with Russell and Sainz behind.

Verstappen stayed in the lead off the line, and both he and Norris stopped for the last time on lap 52. When this happened, Red Bull were a little slow and this put the two drivers right next to each other on track. Norris tried repeatedly to pass but was never able to do so, and the contest ended with contact that left Verstappen with a puncture and Norris suffering a DNF.

In the early stages, Russell and Hamilton had a little duel of their own, with Hamilton getting ahead only for Russell to retake the place. Then Hamilton had a tussle with Sainz, but was advised to hand the place to the Spaniard to avoid a potential penalty for leaving the track and gaining an advantage.

Verstappen trundling back to the pits after the incident with Norris enabled Russell to claim the lead and win, with Piastri (who had started down in 7th) finishing 2nd and Sainz completing the podium. Hamilton was next and Verstappen, despite the puncture, still came home in 5th.

All the attention of Austria focused on the Verstappen-Norris clash, but it’s worth remembering it was a great result for Haas, who had Hulkenberg 6th and Magnussen 8th, with Perez between them. Ricciardo and Gasly completed the points positions. Leclerc had an awful race to drop from 6th to 11th due to lap 1 contact with Piastri that put him almost to the back of the field.

Before the collision between Verstappen and Norris the top three were identical to the grid. Piastri made notable progress but otherwise the upper half of the points were unchanged from the grid to just before the top two made contact. Given how bad dirty air has been this year, this may once again make qualifying absolutely critical.

However, if we see two pit stops as standard again then there is some scope for strategic cunning to get ahead. Or stay there, as per Verstappen in Canada fending off Antonelli.

 

How the season looks going into the Austrian GP 4m30s

After the last race in Canada the wind was taken out of the sails of two teams, McLaren and Williams, who lead the title battle and midfield respectively. McLaren were outqualified and then failed to have a driver on the podium for the first time this year. It might have happened if Norris hadn’t ruined his own race. Their loss of momentum was a gain for Mercedes especially, with Verstappen also closing the still sizeable gap to Piastri (43 points going into Austria).

A silver lining for Norris fans is that he looked faster than Piastri, but unless he nixes qualifying and wheel-to-wheel errors that won’t help him.

Williams have had two rough weekends in a row. Spain doesn’t have a lot of big straights and it has many long corners which the Williams seemed to hate. But Canada should’ve been a lot better. Here, bad luck contrived to block Sainz in qualifying so he started well down the order, and then misfortune destroyed Albon’s power unit during the race itself. Austria should be an easier event for the team.

Changing momentum is true for Alonso and Hulkenberg as well. Upgrades coupled with the ending of the Spaniard’s curse have seen him back on the scoreboard, and the Sauber’s upgrades are also working nicely. But the midfield is very close so both will have a fight on their hands to score again.

Returning to the top, Ferrari had a good run but Canada was not a strong weekend for them, largely due to the team ignoring Leclerc’s desire for a one stop and Hamilton’s misfortune in the groundhog-related damage. It wasn’t as bad as last year, when the team recorded a double DNF. It did, however, stall their momentum in a tight battle for 2nd against Mercedes. Obviously, the Silver Arrows had the reverse, with the end of a weak run of races, their first win of the season, and their first double podium. It remains to be seen if Canada was a flash in the pan for one or both of the teams.

Verstappen looked very quick, although the Red Bull’s tyre wear seemed on the high side, and Tsunoda could’ve scored points but for a tight penalty from practice. That said, the Red Bull looked slower than the Mercedes and the McLaren on race pace, but Verstappen’s excellent qualifying and good strategy, effectively undercutting to stay ahead of Antonelli, worked very well.

Haas and Racing Bulls are locked together on 28 points, with a rare rubbish weekend for Racing Bulls last time out. Ocon scored a couple of points in Canada and Bearman was 11th. But Alpine look very much the weakest team out there right now and I think they will have a difficult weekend in Austria. Gasly’s a talented driver, and Colapinto looked decent in Canada, but the car isn’t there.

It’s worth remembering that the flexi-wing change that came into effect in Spain appeared to have no real impact, but a change cannot be judged on a single race. In Canada, the McLarens started behind both Russell and Verstappen, and neither papaya car featured on the podium. It’s possible the technical directive had more of an impact than we first thought. If McLaren are outqualified in both Austria and Silverstone, the title battle may end up with more participants than expected.

Weirdly, there have been numerous engine failures for Mercedes lately, which could affect not just the works team but McLaren as well, plus other customer teams. It’s unusual to see that happen so often but it has become a pattern in recent races.

Predictions for Austria 8m18s

Predicting Austria is interesting. I think qualifying will largely dictate the final result unless there’s a weird safety car. And I think Russell and Verstappen will be challenging the McLaren and perhaps beating them, as they did last time out.

I’ve gone for Russell to get pole and the win. He was good all throughout Canada and seems to be firing on all cylinders. That said, his engine might not be so that is a concern. I think Piastri will be 2nd. He’s cooler and calmer than Norris and more likely to get the most from the car even when Norris looks faster. And Verstappen for 3rd completes the podium. He’s been qualifying well all year and it’s super tight, but I’m fairly confident those three will comprise the podium.

For midfield points, I’m backing Alonso and Albon. Alonso might look a soft prediction as he’s scored in the last two races, but his power unit is the Mercedes, which has been iffy lately, and midfield competition is stiff. Albon himself suffered power unit woe in Canada, and while the Williams has generally been good the team has only scored a single point in the last two race weekends, with none for Albon.

My extra prediction is that at least one Mercedes engine fails during the course of the weekend. If this comes off then it may be a shining ray of light for Verstappen as all his rivals use that engine.

F1 News 9m50s

F1 news.

We start with good news about Canada: it’s remaining on the calendar until at least 2035. Given we’re losing Imola entirely and Spa’s shifting to a rotating slot, it’s good to see a classic track sticking around. I’m especially pleased because Canada’s one of my favourite tracks. We had dramatic races in the last couple of visits and the 2011 Canadian Grand Prix might still be the best race ever held.

Speaking of the calendar, we might be off to Thailand. The downside is that this would be a street race in Bangkok, and, usually, new street circuits tend to be very much on the boring side. But they do make it easier to draw a crowd and promote ticket sales, and this high chance of financial success outweighs the racing downside. The absence of a race from southeast Asia is slightly glaring. There had been plans for a Vietnamese race but this was kiboshed by the pandemic a few years ago. Annoyingly, Malaysia had a fun circuit which got axed from the calendar, and I’d be very surprised if a Bangkok street circuit was anywhere near as good. But we shall, perhaps, find out soon.

There’s also very good news for Williams’ fans, namely that team principal James Vowles has signed a new long term contract to continue leading the team, which he’s been the boss of since 2023. The specific length of the deal is not known. Right now the team look absolutely nailed on for 5th, assuming they can bounce back from two iffy weekends in a row. They’ve scored over four times as many points this season as they did in 2024 and with Albon and Sainz have a very good driver lineup. Recent weak performances can be attributed to the unusually long corners of Spain, which the Williams hated, and bad luck for Sainz in Canadian qualifying while Albon’s power unit decided to stop working.

But that shouldn’t take away from how well Williams are doing, with nearly double the points of Haas or Racing Bulls (55 against 28 points for the other two teams) and Albon 8th in the Driver standings with 42 points. Behind him are Ocon and Hadjar on 22 and 21 points respectively. Retaining Vowles as team leader is a great move, as he really seems to have his head screwed on right. However, there’s also pressure on him and the team to make a big step forward in the next regulatory period, which starts next year. Vowles himself tends to talk about the late 2020s because there’s a huge shift needed. It’s worth remembering that Williams were second from last in 2024.

It’s been a little while since the last bit of FIA or MBS nonsense but recently there’s been a sacking. This time it’s Sara Mariani, who was, until recently, the head of sustainability, diversity and inclusion, a role that no longer exists. She’d been in the role for a year and a half.

Mariani left the FIA on the 18th, and wrote: “There is a life outside the FIA. A life where talent and dedication are rewarded. Where women in leadership positions can thrive, feel valued and respected.”

During Mohammed Ben Sulayem’s reign as FIA president there have been numerous departures and restructing that some have criticised as reducing accountability and transparency, which I’ve covered previously. I strongly suspect he’ll get re-elected at the end of this year. For those after more political predictions, I also think Putin will win the next election he contests as well.

Thank you all for listening. The last two two races had serious stings in the tail so let’s hope Austria is exciting too. A quick reminder that if you want to get in touch you can find me as MorrisF1 on Blue Sky or Twitter, and you can enjoy lovely graphs at morrisf1.blogspot.com.

The next podcast will be both reviewing Austria and looking ahead to the British Grand Prix, which was also pretty eventful last year.





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