Spanish Grand Prix 2025: pre-race
In the first part of qualifying we said goodbye to Hulkenberg, Ocon, Sainz, Colapinto, and Tsunoda. Rough for Tsunoda, who was not only looking to have zero grip to end up dead last, his team mate was 2nd fastest at the session’s close. Colapinto had a problem late on and had to stop, but Tsunoda still couldn’t beat him.
Things were very close, and in Q2 Albon, Bortoleto, Lawson, Stroll, and Bearman went out, so five different teams represented there. William has a rare weak performance with neither car making Q3. Great stuff from Bortoleto, though, putting his Sauber all the way up in 12th.
McLaren looked on for the front row, but we’ve said that before only for Verstappen to disagree. However, on this occasion it actually did happen that way. In the end, Norris had a slightly scruffy final lap and Piastri claimed pole by two-tenths, which is pretty large as margins go this year. Verstappen managed to drag his car into third place on the grid, alongside Russell, who also had a very good performance. Hamilton and Antonelli form the third row, ahead of Leclerc and Gasly, with Hadjar and Alonso ninth and tenth.
Note that Stroll was set to start 14th but hand/wrist pain means he will not be racing.
The weather is set to be bright and sunny, perhaps not so good for Mercedes, and, at the time of writing, there do not appear to be any penalties.
Verstappen, win each way
Leclerc should’ve been way higher. Lap times improved on the second run but limited tyres (he only had one new set) meant he could not take advantage. He’s 1.36 to be top 6 which is not staggering but may still be worth backing.
Verstappen, on pace, should probably be 3rd or 4th (his qualifying time was identical to Russell’s but in the heat I think the Red Bull will be faster in the race, assuming Verstappen can keep it on the road for an hour and a half - grip does not look good). However, nine years two dominant cars collided on lap 1 and Verstappen got the win in his first ever race with Red Bull. I think Piastri and Norris will be rather better-mannered than Hamilton and Rosberg were but that potential exists. They’re in a title fight and both know the other is their main rival. Verstappen’s 6.5 for the win each way, or 10 for just the win on Betfair. That’s probably where the odds should be, rather than value.
Ver, Pia, Nor on the podium, 2.2
I tend to dislike specials because they come with a bundle of contingencies that actually makes them very unlikely. However, I’ve got to admit being tempted by this. The McLarens and Verstappen are the likeliest combination on the podium, although it’s always possible Russell or someone else might spoil the party.
Alonso, points, 1.72
Alonso starts 10th and could easily finish top 10. However, he’s been horrendously unlucky this year, which is probably why his odds aren’t around 1.4. Hard to say whether this counts as value given that.
Finding it pretty difficult to find anything that leaps out, so I’m backing a McLaren/Verstappen podium at 2.2. Nope, not very exciting. But it is the likeliest outcome, I think.
The race starts at 2pm. Start should be tasty between the McLarens.
Morris
Things were very close, and in Q2 Albon, Bortoleto, Lawson, Stroll, and Bearman went out, so five different teams represented there. William has a rare weak performance with neither car making Q3. Great stuff from Bortoleto, though, putting his Sauber all the way up in 12th.
McLaren looked on for the front row, but we’ve said that before only for Verstappen to disagree. However, on this occasion it actually did happen that way. In the end, Norris had a slightly scruffy final lap and Piastri claimed pole by two-tenths, which is pretty large as margins go this year. Verstappen managed to drag his car into third place on the grid, alongside Russell, who also had a very good performance. Hamilton and Antonelli form the third row, ahead of Leclerc and Gasly, with Hadjar and Alonso ninth and tenth.
Note that Stroll was set to start 14th but hand/wrist pain means he will not be racing.
The weather is set to be bright and sunny, perhaps not so good for Mercedes, and, at the time of writing, there do not appear to be any penalties.
Early Betting Thoughts
Leclerc, top 6Verstappen, win each way
Leclerc should’ve been way higher. Lap times improved on the second run but limited tyres (he only had one new set) meant he could not take advantage. He’s 1.36 to be top 6 which is not staggering but may still be worth backing.
Verstappen, on pace, should probably be 3rd or 4th (his qualifying time was identical to Russell’s but in the heat I think the Red Bull will be faster in the race, assuming Verstappen can keep it on the road for an hour and a half - grip does not look good). However, nine years two dominant cars collided on lap 1 and Verstappen got the win in his first ever race with Red Bull. I think Piastri and Norris will be rather better-mannered than Hamilton and Rosberg were but that potential exists. They’re in a title fight and both know the other is their main rival. Verstappen’s 6.5 for the win each way, or 10 for just the win on Betfair. That’s probably where the odds should be, rather than value.
Perusing the Market
As usual, I browsed the market to see if anything popped out.Ver, Pia, Nor on the podium, 2.2
I tend to dislike specials because they come with a bundle of contingencies that actually makes them very unlikely. However, I’ve got to admit being tempted by this. The McLarens and Verstappen are the likeliest combination on the podium, although it’s always possible Russell or someone else might spoil the party.
Alonso, points, 1.72
Alonso starts 10th and could easily finish top 10. However, he’s been horrendously unlucky this year, which is probably why his odds aren’t around 1.4. Hard to say whether this counts as value given that.
Finding it pretty difficult to find anything that leaps out, so I’m backing a McLaren/Verstappen podium at 2.2. Nope, not very exciting. But it is the likeliest outcome, I think.
The race starts at 2pm. Start should be tasty between the McLarens.
Morris
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