Azerbaijan Grand Prix 2025: pre-race

Well, qualifying was a five red flag, two hour affair, with numerous drivers crashing out and a mostly shocking grid. There was even a touch of rain, but not enough to do more than add a touch of stress near the end.

Q1 had three red flags, including an unnecessary one for Hulkenberg, whose car was never without power and who was able to get back to the pits and compete again when the track was green. The five eliminated drivers were Colapinto, who crashed out, Hulkenberg, who had crash damage, Ocon, who was just slow, Gasly, who was off-track near the end, and Albon, who crashed out. This was especially galling for Albon, who had looked good up until this point.

In Q2 I was astonished Alonso was the fastest man eliminated (thought the Aston Martin would not be good here). He was ahead of Hamilton, who had seemed really competitive but lacked a lot of pace in the middle sector. Bortoleto in 13th being a little disappointing is indicative of what a great job the Brazilian’s been doing this year, and Stroll was slowest in 14th. But that’s because Bearman, who had looked quick in practice, immediately crashed out.

Q3 had only a few minutes gone with Sainz and the Racing Bulls top of the time sheet when Leclerc drove into a wall. With light rain falling we could dream of a crazy top 3. And when things got going Piastri made a rare mistake to crash out. But in the end it was Verstappen who claimed a commanding pole, but Sainz was fast enough to join him on the front row. Lawson’s 3rd on the grid is very impressive, ahead of Antonelli and Russell. Tsunoda in 6th is a shot in the arm for the Japanese driver, but Norris’ 7th marks a failure to capitalise on a valuable Piastri error. Hadjar in 8th, weirdly, is not as good as it could be, but for Racing Bulls (and Williams) this was a great overall result.

Piastri and Leclerc will be on the crashed out fifth row.



The stop-start nature of this marathon qualifying meant a ton of tyres were used, increasing the chances that we end up with multiple stops. Teams better at strategy or with drivers capable of leading that may do better. There’s also a small chance of rain, at the time of writing.

Ocon, who was going o be 18th, got disqualified for his rear wing breaching a technical regulation.

 

Early Betting Thoughts

Norris/Piastri, win each way

Hamilton, top 6

Albon, points

Russell, podium

Verstappen, win

Starting 7th and 9th, the McLarens have been kind to their tyres, and mostly better than rivals. With so many sets being used in qualifying and expectations of a 2 stop being possible even before that, plus decent pace, this could yet see them claim the win. Their odds are available each way at 7 and 9 respectively, and I’d be inclined to back that over the straight win (longer odds on Betfair) as Verstappen may very well take 1st place. The main problem is that they’re pretty close together and picking which one, if either, ends up getting runner-up status is tricky.

Hamilton had good pace but it dropped off bizarrely quickly in Q2. It may have been wiser for Ferrari to put him on the medium but his used softs saw him out. However, he’s only 1.6 to be top 6 and given the chance of collision or other woe, this feels too short to me.

Albon was first out in qualifying with a weird rookie crash. But his car has excellent pace and he’s been good all year. I’m confident he has a solid shot of climbing up to the points. His odds are 4 (and 5.2 on Betfair), and I’ve got to say I like the look of that.

Russell got heavily overlooked due to other, more interesting results, but he starts 5th, right behind his team mate Antonelli and ahead of Tsunoda. It’s forecast to be overcast and cool in Baku which will help Mercedes quite a bit, and he’s 2.5 for a podium. That’s not bad, but perhaps a little short.

And last but not least, Verstappen, who, once again, forgot his car’s not meant to be very good. Great qualifying once again, but he’s only 1.4 for the win. Highly likely but the odds are just too short for me.

Browsing the Markets

That’s plenty to be getting on with but I browsed the markets anyway just in case anything leapt out at me.

Antonelli podium, 13

Antonelli starts one place higher than Russell in 4th and the cool conditions should suit his Mercedes. He’s out at 13…. which is pretty long. The thing is, *someone* besides Verstappen has to end up on the podium, and Antonelli’s starting position isn’t bad at all. The problem is, ironically given how well he did in qualifying, he’s made plenty of mistakes in races lately. This could be a free bet sort of wager, but it’s worth considering.

Albon, win group 4, 5.5

Group 4 also includes both Aston Martins, Bortoleto, and Bearman. On pace, I think Albon should manage this pretty handily. Hmm. In fact, it’s making me wonder whether this or the points bet is better value. Passing’s possible in Baku and the Williams is tasty in a straight line, which is not a strength of the Aston Martin in particular.



One way or another, Albon’s the most appealing bet, the question is whether points or winning that group is more attractive. In the end, I went for points at 5.2 on Betfair, mostly because Bearman was looking good and his pace might prove tricky. It’s entirely possible both (maybe even Bortoleto) will end up scoring.

 

Let’s hope the race is profitable and exciting.



Morris Dancer